{"schema_version": 1, "id": "yuba-city-ca-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 458, "label": "Yuba City, CA MSA", "slug": "yuba-city-ca-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "restaurant_industry", "slug": "restaurant-industry", "label": "Restaurant Industry"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:22:26.722078+00:00", "headline": "Yuba City restaurants split pay: GMs up, crew pay softens.", "headline_summary": "Yuba City's 7.1% unemployment rate is easing Crew and Line Cook pay even as Restaurant Manager/GM pay climbs to an $85,000 metro median, 42% above the national figure.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Yuba City unemployment rate", "value": "7.1%", "context": "vs 4.1% national, 5.1% California (Aug 2026)"}, {"label": "GM pay vs national", "value": "$85,000", "context": "42% above $59,724 national median, up significantly"}, {"label": "CA leisure/hospitality jobs", "value": "-6,800", "context": "Month-over-month statewide decline, Sept 2026"}, {"label": "Crew advertised pay", "value": "$38,480", "context": "Down moderately; national Crew pay stable at $30,066"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Entry-level softening gives operators temporary breathing room.", "body": "Crew and Line Cook advertised pay both moved down moderately this month against a 7.1% metro unemployment rate, well above the 4.1% national rate. Slack labor supply is easing wage pressure at the bottom of the scale, but California's no-tip-credit rule means full minimum wage still applies to every FOH hour worked."}, {"headline": "Restaurant Manager pay is pulling away from national norms.", "body": "Metro GM pay rose significantly to an $85,000 median, 42% above the $59,724 national figure, while Shift Manager pay held stable. That spread suggests Yuba City operators are competing hard for proven leadership even as broader hiring conditions loosen \u2014 a signal to benchmark management retention separately from frontline wage trends."}, {"headline": "Catering Manager demand bucks the local downturn.", "body": "Catering Manager advertised pay rose moderately to $63,006 locally while the national figure declined moderately. Divergence this sharp points to a metro-specific demand driver \u2014 likely agricultural-region event and institutional catering volume \u2014 worth confirming before assuming it reflects a broader compensation trend."}, {"headline": "Crew-to-supervisor compression is a statewide risk playing out locally.", "body": "California's Fast Food Council dynamics show crew members at $20/hour have little incentive to step into $21-22/hour supervisor roles. With local Crew pay already soft and Shift Manager pay flat at $41,729, the promotion incentive gap is narrowing further \u2014 a retention risk for the bench beneath your GMs."}], "local_conditions": "Yuba City's 7.1% unemployment rate, nearly three points above the 4.1% national figure, reflects a metro where labor supply remains loose even as California's leisure and hospitality sector shed 6,800 jobs statewide month-over-month amid normal seasonal pullback. Against this slack, local restaurant advertised pay is moving in two directions at once \u2014 Restaurant Manager/General Manager compensation climbed significantly to a $85,000 metro median while Crew and Line Cook pay both declined moderately, suggesting operators are concentrating scarce wage dollars on retaining leadership while entry-level roles soften with seasonal demand.", "implications": "Elevated local unemployment paired with falling Crew and Line Cook advertised pay indicates operators have temporary breathing room on entry-level hourly cost, but California's no-tip-credit structure means any FOH wage relief is limited and service charges remain the primary lever for absorbing labor cost as a share of revenue. The widening gap between a $85,000 GM median and compressed crew-to-supervisor pay bands \u2014 a dynamic flagged statewide under the $20 fast food floor \u2014 signals that promotion-pipeline incentives need attention even where overall hiring pressure has eased. Consider reviewing shift-lead and assistant manager pay bands now, while entry-level softness creates room to redirect savings toward closing that compression gap before it drives turnover among your most promotable crew.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Policy shift", "body": "DOL's October withdrawal of the federal 80/20 tipped-wage rule doesn't apply in California's no-tip-credit environment, but watch whether neighboring states' wage fragmentation pulls multi-state operators' corporate pay philosophy in ways that affect California FOH benchmarking."}, {"category": "Seasonal pressure point", "body": "California leisure and hospitality lost 6,800 jobs statewide month-over-month on normal seasonal decline; watch whether Yuba City's agriculture-adjacent seasonal patterns compound this into deeper November-December FOH staffing swings than usual."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Catering Manager's divergent local wage gain warrants a check against Sutter County event and institutional booking volume over the next 60 days to confirm whether this is a durable local demand signal or a short-term anomaly."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Local unemployment at 7.1% has shown no clear downward trend through 2026; if it holds or rises further while GM pay continues climbing, expect wider bifurcation between management and entry-level compensation strategy heading into Q1 planning."}], "roles": [{"role": "Assistant Restaurant Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36511.0, "metro_p50": 45109.0, "metro_p75": 46326.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39211.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Catering Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 43680.0, "metro_p50": 63006.0, "metro_p75": 74560.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 50076.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Crew", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30002.0, "metro_p50": 38480.0, "metro_p75": 42640.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 30066.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Line Cook", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35152.0, "metro_p50": 39936.0, "metro_p75": 43160.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 37421.4, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Restaurant Manager/General Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54203.0, "metro_p50": 85000.0, "metro_p75": 90589.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 59724.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Server", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33184.0, "metro_p50": 35152.0, "metro_p75": 39325.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 35024.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Shift Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31652.0, "metro_p50": 41729.0, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33024.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [{"source_name": "California EDD / Metro Labor Market Research", "source_url": null, "statement": "Yuba City MSA unemployment rate of 7.1% as of August 2026"}, {"source_name": "California Employment Development Department", "source_url": null, "statement": "California leisure and hospitality sector lost 6,800 jobs month-over-month"}, {"source_name": "California Fast Food Council", "source_url": null, "statement": "California fast food wage floor compresses crew-to-supervisor pay incentive"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "National unemployment rate stable at 4.1% in October 2026"}, {"source_name": "California Department of Industrial Relations", "source_url": null, "statement": "California has no tip credit; full minimum wage applies to tipped roles"}, {"source_name": "U.S. Department of Labor", "source_url": null, "statement": "DOL withdrew federal 80/20 tipped-wage rule in October 2026"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "yuba-city-ca-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.html", "pdf": "yuba-city-ca-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:32:50.818984+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/yuba-city-ca-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/yuba-city-ca-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.pdf"}