{"schema_version": 1, "id": "youngstown-warren-boardman-oh-pa-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 542, "label": "Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA MSA", "slug": "youngstown-warren-boardman-oh-pa-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "restaurant_industry", "slug": "restaurant-industry", "label": "Restaurant Industry"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:21:39.862160+00:00", "headline": "Youngstown unemployment climbs as restaurant pay softens.", "headline_summary": "Mahoning County unemployment hit 4.7% in September against Ohio's 3.4% statewide rate, while metro Restaurant Manager pay fell to $54,000 \u2014 nearly $5,700 below the stable national median.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Mahoning County unemployment", "value": "4.7%", "context": "vs. 3.4% Ohio statewide, Sept. 2026"}, {"label": "Trumbull County unemployment", "value": "4.8%", "context": "vs. 3.4% Ohio statewide, Sept. 2026"}, {"label": "Metro avg. weekly wage", "value": "$1,059", "context": "vs. $1,654 national, Q1 2026"}, {"label": "National restaurant turnover", "value": "~80%", "context": "up from ~72% pre-pandemic baseline"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Metro unemployment is rising while advertised pay is falling.", "body": "Mahoning (4.7%) and Trumbull (4.8%) County unemployment sit well above Ohio's 3.4% rate, yet Restaurant Manager/GM advertised pay fell to a $54,000 metro median against a stable $59,724 national figure. Loosening labor supply locally is not yet showing up as wage discipline nationally, creating a pay gap operators can use to benchmark more conservatively this cycle."}, {"headline": "Federal tipped-wage rule change creates a scheduling lever.", "body": "DOL's October withdrawal of the 80/20 guidance lets operators assign more non-tip-producing side work without triggering full minimum wage pay, directly easing cash-wage exposure during slow shifts. Ohio's $5.50 tipped floor combined with this flexibility may create room to restructure FOH shift composition without increasing labor cost as a share of revenue."}, {"headline": "Crew pay softness may be a retention risk in disguise.", "body": "Metro Crew advertised pay fell to $27,500, down from prior periods and now $2,566 below the stable national median of $30,066. With regional wages already 36% below national averages, continued softening in entry-level roles risks accelerating the turnover rate beyond the industry's already-elevated 80% baseline."}, {"headline": "BOH wage pressure is building faster than FOH nationally.", "body": "BLS projects cook employment to grow 12% through 2035 versus 2% for waitstaff, a structural divergence that local Line Cook pay ($31,361, stable) has not yet priced in relative to Server pay ($29,040, stable). Metro operators holding BOH pay flat may be underestimating a national hiring-difficulty trend before it compresses the local labor pool."}], "local_conditions": "Mahoning and Trumbull counties posted September unemployment of 4.7% and 4.8% respectively, well above Ohio's 3.4% rate, while metro nonfarm payrolls fell to 166,100 in July \u2014 signs of a softer labor pool that have not translated into broad wage acceleration locally. Ohio's tipped minimum rose to $5.50/hour in January 2026 and is locked into annual CPI-indexed increases, even as federal rule changes eliminating the 80/20 side-work threshold give operators new flexibility on how tipped labor is deployed.", "implications": "Elevated county unemployment alongside flat-to-declining advertised pay for Server, Crew, and GM roles locally suggests a labor pool with more available candidates than wage pressure would imply \u2014 a contrast to the 80% national turnover rate still straining staffing models. Ohio's predictable wage-floor escalator (rising to $11.40/$5.70 in 2027) removes budgeting uncertainty but does little to address retention in a metro where wages already trail national averages by nearly 36% ($1,059 vs. $1,654 weekly). Consider reviewing whether softer local Crew and GM advertised pay reflects an actual easing in competition for talent or lagged adjustment, before assuming hiring is getting easier.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected data release", "body": "October county-level unemployment for Mahoning and Trumbull publishes November 20. A continued climb above the September 4.7%-4.8% range would reinforce a softening local labor pool and could support more conservative advertised pay decisions for entry-level FOH roles."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Ohio's Food & Hospitality sector logged four WARN notices and 690 affected workers statewide in 2026 \u2014 modest in volume but worth tracking for any metro-specific filings that could add experienced staff to the regional candidate pool."}, {"category": "Policy inflection point", "body": "Federal proposals targeting a $20 minimum wage by 2030 and elimination of the tip-credit system remain speculative but would reshape FOH compensation structures well beyond Ohio's current CPI-indexed escalator. Watch for Secretary Sonderling's early regulatory signals on joint-employer and tip-credit standards."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Metro advertised pay for Catering Manager and GM roles is down moderately while national figures hold stable or decline less sharply \u2014 a gap that could narrow or widen depending on whether Youngstown's elevated unemployment persists into Q4 seasonal hiring."}], "roles": [{"role": "Assistant Restaurant Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 41225.0, "metro_p75": 50000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39211.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Catering Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36129.25, "metro_p50": 37570.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 50076.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Crew", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24180.0, "metro_p50": 27500.0, "metro_p75": 30420.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 30066.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Line Cook", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28850.0, "metro_p50": 31361.0, "metro_p75": 34320.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 37421.4, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Restaurant Manager/General Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 45368.0, "metro_p50": 54000.0, "metro_p75": 57544.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 59724.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Server", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25475.0, "metro_p50": 29039.6, "metro_p75": 33541.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 35024.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Shift Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28080.0, "metro_p50": 31200.0, "metro_p75": 33280.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33024.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [{"source_name": "Ohio Department of Job and Family Services", "source_url": null, "statement": "Mahoning and Trumbull County September 2026 unemployment rates"}, {"source_name": "Ohio Labor Market Review", "source_url": null, "statement": "Youngstown-Warren metro nonfarm payroll employment, July 2026"}, {"source_name": "U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Q1 2026 average weekly wage comparison, Youngstown metro vs. national"}, {"source_name": "U.S. Department of Labor", "source_url": null, "statement": "DOL withdrawal of 80/20 tipped wage rule, October 2026"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "BLS employment growth projections for cooks vs. waitstaff, 2025-2035"}, {"source_name": "National Restaurant Association", "source_url": null, "statement": "National restaurant industry annual turnover rate near 80%"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "youngstown-warren-boardman-oh-pa-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.html", "pdf": "youngstown-warren-boardman-oh-pa-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:32:48.451594+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/youngstown-warren-boardman-oh-pa-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/youngstown-warren-boardman-oh-pa-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.pdf"}