{"schema_version": 1, "id": "youngstown-warren-boardman-oh-pa-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 542, "label": "Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA MSA", "slug": "youngstown-warren-boardman-oh-pa-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "restaurant_industry", "slug": "restaurant-industry", "label": "Restaurant Industry"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:37:04.016964+00:00", "headline": "Youngstown restaurant hiring loosens as metro jobs contract faster than Ohio.", "headline_summary": "Metro unemployment hit 4.8% in August against Ohio's 3.3%, while Line Cook advertised pay fell to $31,200 locally even as Ohio's 2027 minimum wage step to $11.40 looms for Q1.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Metro unemployment rate", "value": "4.8%", "context": "vs Ohio 3.3%, up from 4.0% in May"}, {"label": "Projected metro employment change", "value": "-1.76%", "context": "Annualized, 2nd-steepest among Ohio's 8 largest metros"}, {"label": "Ohio 2027 minimum wage (non-tipped/tipped)", "value": "$11.40 / $5.70", "context": "Up 3.5% from 2026's $11.00/$5.50"}, {"label": "National accommodation/food svc openings", "value": "673,000", "context": "Down from 916,000 in Jan 2026"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Metro unemployment outpacing the state signals a buyer's market for BOH roles.", "body": "Youngstown's 4.8% rate compares to Ohio's 3.3% statewide average, and Line Cook advertised pay has moved down to $31,200 locally versus a stable $36,826 nationally. Operators filling back-of-house roles may have more room to hold the line on starting pay through year-end."}, {"headline": "Ohio's 2027 wage step increase arrives before labor costs have stabilized.", "body": "The jump to $11.40 non-tipped and $5.70 tipped, confirmed late September, lands on top of a metro already showing projected employment contraction. Operators budgeting Q1 2027 labor cost as a share of revenue should model the increase now rather than treating it as a routine annual adjustment."}, {"headline": "Falling advertised pay for management roles may reflect weaker local demand, not easing competition.", "body": "Restaurant Manager/GM advertised pay fell to $55,000 locally against a national median of $59,618, tracking the metro's broader employment contraction forecast rather than a genuine softening in management recruiting difficulty. Treat this as a signal to monitor fill times, not an invitation to cut offers reflexively."}, {"headline": "Server and Shift Manager pay holding steady stands out against a declining metro backdrop.", "body": "Both roles show stable advertised pay even as Crew, Line Cook, and management pay trend down, suggesting FOH tipped-adjacent roles are more insulated from local labor softening. This divergence is worth tracking as a leading indicator of where turnover pressure concentrates this fall."}], "local_conditions": "Youngstown-Warren-Boardman's preliminary August unemployment rate climbed to 4.8%, up from 4.0% in May, with Trumbull County at 5.1% and Mahoning at 4.6% \u2014 among the highest readings in Ohio and running well above the state's 3.3% average. ODJFS projects the metro's employment base to contract 1.76% annually over the next six months, one of the steepest declines among Ohio's eight largest metros, while statewide food services/drinking places employment fell 3.1K year-over-year, pointing to a labor market where restaurant operators face shrinking local demand even as candidate pools loosen.", "implications": "Rising metro unemployment alongside falling advertised pay for Line Cook ($31,200, down from national $36,826) and Assistant Restaurant Manager ($40,000) suggests Youngstown operators are regaining some leverage in back-of-house hiring after years of wage compression, but Ohio's 2027 minimum wage increase to $11.40/$5.70 \u2014 announced this month \u2014 will compress that advantage starting Q1. Softer metro employment and projected contraction argue for caution on seasonal staffing builds ahead of winter volume, while the shrinking wage gap between tipped and non-tipped floors warrants a fresh look at FOH/BOH pay structure before the new rate takes effect. Consider reviewing shift-level labor cost models now against the January 2027 wage floor rather than waiting for the increase to hit payroll.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Mahoning and Trumbull County unemployment has risen three straight readings through August; watch whether September data (expected in coming weeks) confirms a trend or reflects seasonal noise tied to the metro's broader 1.76% projected employment contraction."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Ohio's confirmed 2027 minimum wage step to $11.40/$5.70 gives operators roughly a quarter to adjust FOH compensation structures before it takes effect \u2014 watch for early announcements from peer operators repricing tipped-wage floors ahead of January."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "National accommodation and food services job openings fell from 916,000 to 673,000 by July, easing competition for workers; confirm whether this translates locally into shorter time-to-fill for Youngstown BOH postings over the next two months."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Statewide food services/drinking places employment is down 3.1K year-over-year even as national restaurant payrolls grew modestly in September. A continued Ohio-national divergence would reinforce that Youngstown's restaurant labor softness is more structural than seasonal."}], "roles": [{"role": "Assistant Restaurant Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32961.0, "metro_p50": 40000.0, "metro_p75": 45000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39000.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Catering Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35567.75, "metro_p50": 39037.8, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 50960.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Crew", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 23916.0, "metro_p50": 27040.0, "metro_p75": 30160.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 29839.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Line Cook", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28768.0, "metro_p50": 31200.0, "metro_p75": 33280.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 36826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Restaurant Manager/General Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 45027.0, "metro_p50": 55000.0, "metro_p75": 58310.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 59618.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Server", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25476.0, "metro_p50": 29247.0, "metro_p75": 33658.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 35012.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Shift Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27898.0, "metro_p50": 30619.2, "metro_p75": 32320.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 32731.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "youngstown-warren-boardman-oh-pa-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.html", "pdf": "youngstown-warren-boardman-oh-pa-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T14:38:18.405894+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/youngstown-warren-boardman-oh-pa-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/youngstown-warren-boardman-oh-pa-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.pdf"}