{"schema_version": 1, "id": "youngstown-warren-boardman-oh-pa-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 542, "label": "Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA MSA", "slug": "youngstown-warren-boardman-oh-pa-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T08:11:58.169130+00:00", "headline": "Youngstown's jobless rate pulls away from Ohio's, payrolls keep slipping.", "headline_summary": "Mahoning County's 4.7% and Trumbull's 4.8% September unemployment rates sit well above Ohio's 3.4% statewide figure, while metro payrolls fell to 166,100 in July, down 1,200 from June.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Mahoning/Trumbull unemployment", "value": "4.7% / 4.8%", "context": "vs 3.4% Ohio statewide, September 2026"}, {"label": "Metro nonfarm payrolls", "value": "166,100", "context": "Down 1,200 from June 2026 (July reading)"}, {"label": "Metro avg weekly wage", "value": "$1,059", "context": "vs $1,654 national average, Q1 2026"}, {"label": "Ohio labor force participation", "value": "61.2%", "context": "vs 61.8% national rate, September 2026"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Mahoning Valley unemployment is diverging further from the state.", "body": "Trumbull's 4.8% and Mahoning's 4.7% September rates sit roughly 1.4 points above Ohio's 3.4%, and the gap has persisted and widened through most of 2026. That pattern is consistent with a local economy whose underlying industrial base is cooling faster than the statewide trend."}, {"headline": "Payroll contraction preceded the wage story everyone is watching.", "body": "July's drop to 166,100 nonfarm jobs, down 1,200 month-over-month, came before this month's CPI acceleration, so wage-vs-inflation pressure is layering onto an already-shrinking employment base locally. That sequencing points to a structural shift in the metro's trajectory spanning multiple months."}, {"headline": "Skilled trades and clinical pay are pulling away from clerical and logistics roles.", "body": "HVAC Technician pay rose significantly to $105,000 locally, well above the $71,406 national median, while Administrative Assistant and Warehouse Manager pay both fell moderately-to-significantly in the metro. The split suggests local demand is concentrating in scarce technical skill even as the broader employment base softens."}, {"headline": "The region's wage gap with the nation is a decades-old structural fact.", "body": "First-quarter 2026 average weekly wages of $1,059 versus $1,654 nationally reflect a long-standing structural gap, but it means any national inflation reading lands harder on Mahoning Valley household budgets than the national average implies."}], "local_conditions": "Mahoning and Trumbull counties posted September unemployment of 4.7% and 4.8% respectively, well above Ohio's 3.4% rate, while Youngstown-Warren nonfarm payrolls fell to 166,100 in July, down 1,200 from June, pointing to a metro economy losing momentum even as the state and nation held closer to trend. Local wage data compounds the picture: first-quarter 2026 average weekly wages ran $1,059 versus $1,654 nationally, a gap that predates this month's inflation readings and means Mahoning Valley households absorb the same CPI pressure as the rest of the country on a materially thinner paycheck.", "implications": "Widening gap between metro and state unemployment signals a local economy decoupling from Ohio's broader (if softening) stability, which matters for site-selection conversations and public investment prioritization more than for any single payroll decision. Advertised pay data showing HVAC Technician (+significant, $105,000 metro median) and Registered Nurse (+moderate, $90,254) climbing against a backdrop of falling Administrative Assistant ($38,606, down moderate) and Warehouse Manager ($52,937, down significant) pay suggests the local labor market is rewarding scarce technical and clinical skill while clerical and logistics-management roles soften. Commerce leaders and economic development officials should consider tracking this sector divergence when evaluating which incentive packages or workforce-training investments are likely to reach the parts of the local labor force most exposed to payroll contraction.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected release", "body": "October county-level unemployment data arrives November 20 from ODJFS; a reading near or above September's 4.7-4.8% would confirm the metro is tracking below the state's modest stabilization."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Ohio's statewide labor force participation rate (61.2%) already trails the national rate (61.8%), and if Mahoning Valley follows the state's pattern of workers exiting the labor force, local employment counts could understate the real slack in the regional economy."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Manufacturing led Ohio's 2026 WARN filings with 23 notices and 3,159 affected workers statewide; any new filing touching Mahoning or Trumbull County manufacturing employers would be a direct test of whether the metro's July payroll decline is continuing into Q4."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Statewide growth in data-center and technology-adjacent engineering roles has been concentrated in specific metros; watch whether any of that investment pattern reaches the Youngstown-Warren corridor or stays concentrated in larger Ohio metros."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 23392.0, "metro_p50": 27990.0, "metro_p75": 31767.25, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24440.0, "metro_p50": 27162.2, "metro_p75": 29494.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31698.0, "metro_p50": 38813.0, "metro_p75": 40000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57200.0, "metro_p50": 83200.0, "metro_p75": 94206.25, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29120.0, "metro_p50": 32781.0, "metro_p75": 38480.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31737.0, "metro_p50": 35725.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 61007.0, "metro_p50": 72800.0, "metro_p75": 73861.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32280.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27309.0, "metro_p50": 33930.0, "metro_p75": 36717.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27555.5, "metro_p50": 29192.0, "metro_p75": 30867.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31951.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32676.0, "metro_p50": 38606.4, "metro_p75": 42640.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 67600.0, "metro_p50": 105000.0, "metro_p75": 105000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 77351.5, "metro_p50": 90253.6, "metro_p75": 95582.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 109019.75, "metro_p50": 148707.4, "metro_p75": 163904.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 97990.0, "metro_p50": 130000.0, "metro_p75": 147772.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 53076.0, "metro_p50": 61648.0, "metro_p75": 75000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 72219.0, "metro_p50": 82375.2, "metro_p75": 86178.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 41646.5, "metro_p50": 59176.8, "metro_p75": 65000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 47328.25, "metro_p50": 59245.2, "metro_p75": 68739.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 71747.0, "metro_p50": 82820.8, "metro_p75": 93502.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30134.0, "metro_p50": 44750.0, "metro_p75": 51621.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54656.0, "metro_p50": 68590.0, "metro_p75": 80086.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 52573.0, "metro_p50": 52937.0, "metro_p75": 52937.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 90833.25, "metro_p50": 96936.0, "metro_p75": 97163.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 52000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 44720.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 33615.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 57200.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 51500.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 45382.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 41004.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 51055.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 31043.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 65923.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "youngstown-warren-boardman-oh-pa-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "youngstown-warren-boardman-oh-pa-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "youngstown-warren-boardman-oh-pa-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:32:48.073586+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/youngstown-warren-boardman-oh-pa-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/youngstown-warren-boardman-oh-pa-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}