{"schema_version": 1, "id": "youngstown-warren-boardman-oh-pa-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 542, "label": "Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA MSA", "slug": "youngstown-warren-boardman-oh-pa-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:44:28.351581+00:00", "headline": "Youngstown unemployment climbs to 4.8% as wages lag the nation.", "headline_summary": "Youngstown-Warren's jobless rate rose to 4.8% in August against a 4.1% national rate, while Mahoning County's $1,064 average weekly wage trails the U.S. average by roughly a third.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Metro unemployment rate", "value": "4.8%", "context": "vs 4.1% national, 3.3% Ohio (August 2026)"}, {"label": "Mahoning County avg weekly wage", "value": "$1,064", "context": "vs $1,654 U.S. average, ranks 361st nationally"}, {"label": "Projected metro employment growth", "value": "-1.76% annualized", "context": "2nd-steepest contraction among Ohio's 8 largest metros"}, {"label": "Trumbull County unemployment", "value": "5.1%", "context": "up from 5.0% in June, among Ohio's highest"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Falling unemployment in Ohio isn't the good news it looks like.", "body": "Ohio's jobless rate fell to 3.3% in August largely because 95,000 workers exited the labor force over the past year, not because hiring strengthened; Youngstown's own unemployment climb to 4.8% while county labor pools shrink points to the same dynamic playing out locally. Commerce leaders should treat improving headline rates skeptically until participation data confirms real demand growth."}, {"headline": "Youngstown's wage floor remains a structural, not cyclical, problem.", "body": "Mahoning County's $1,064 average weekly wage ranks 361st nationally, roughly 36% below the U.S. average, a gap that predates this month's softening and reflects the metro's industrial mix rather than a temporary dip. Any regional competitiveness pitch to employers or investors needs to account for this persistent pay gap directly rather than around it."}, {"headline": "Skilled trades are the one bright spot worth highlighting publicly.", "body": "HVAC technician pay locally hit $105,000, running well above the $70,720 national median, and electrician pay rose significantly to $72,697, both outpacing broader metro wage stagnation. This divergence is consistent with data-center and construction-linked demand cited statewide, giving commerce leaders a credible, specific growth story to point to even amid a soft headline economy."}, {"headline": "Metro employment contraction is projected to outpace most Ohio peers.", "body": "State forecasts show the Youngstown-Warren MSA contracting at an annualized 1.76% rate, among the steepest of Ohio's eight largest metros, even as Cleveland, Cincinnati, and Dayton post gains. That divergence matters for any regional economic development comparison or investment pitch that assumes Youngstown moves in lockstep with the rest of the state."}], "local_conditions": "Youngstown-Warren-Boardman's unemployment rate rose to 4.8% in August, with Mahoning (4.6%) and Trumbull (5.1%) counties running well above both the 3.3% Ohio average and national 4.1%, even as state-level job growth across Ohio has slowed to just 2,200 positions added in August. Metro average weekly wages remain near the bottom of national rankings at $1,064 in Mahoning County, underscoring a local economy where softer labor demand and historically depressed pay levels are compounding rather than offsetting each other.", "implications": "Elevated unemployment paired with continued wage divergence from national levels is consistent with a metro economy expanding more slowly than the state and national baseline, a signal commerce leaders should weigh before treating any single month's improvement as a turnaround. Public-sector and health care stability, alongside pockets of strength in skilled trades such as HVAC and electrical work, suggest the local business climate still rewards targeted investment even as broad consumer-facing momentum cools. Current conditions suggest economic development and chamber leadership should track sector-level divergence closely rather than relying on headline unemployment figures, which can mask underlying labor force contraction.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Trumbull County's 5.1% unemployment rate is among the highest in Ohio; watch whether the gap to Mahoning's 4.6% widens or narrows over the next two reporting cycles, which would clarify whether softness is countywide or concentrated."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Ohio WARN notices total 18 over the past 90 days, led by manufacturing (23 notices statewide) and transportation/logistics; local economic development offices should monitor whether any new filings touch Mahoning or Trumbull County directly."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "National wage growth has slipped to 3.0% against 3.4% inflation, the first real-wage erosion in two years; if that pattern reaches the metro, already-soft consumer-facing sectors like retail and food service could see further pay compression."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Construction and manufacturing wage strength statewide is linked to data-center buildout; watch for any site-selection or capital investment announcements in the Mahoning Valley corridor that would confirm this trend is reaching Youngstown specifically."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 23680.0, "metro_p50": 28080.0, "metro_p75": 32092.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24411.0, "metro_p50": 27484.0, "metro_p75": 29494.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31122.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 38813.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58170.0, "metro_p50": 85000.0, "metro_p75": 98800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27549.0, "metro_p50": 32240.0, "metro_p75": 37232.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31901.25, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 61340.0, "metro_p50": 72696.8, "metro_p75": 73861.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31629.5, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 40810.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27309.0, "metro_p50": 33446.0, "metro_p75": 36717.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27479.25, "metro_p50": 29119.0, "metro_p75": 30208.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31965.75, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 41957.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32697.0, "metro_p50": 38482.0, "metro_p75": 41729.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 67600.0, "metro_p50": 105000.0, "metro_p75": 105000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 77156.0, "metro_p50": 90078.4, "metro_p75": 95517.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 108354.25, "metro_p50": 149362.6, "metro_p75": 164880.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 98957.0, "metro_p50": 133120.0, "metro_p75": 150800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 53076.0, "metro_p50": 59862.0, "metro_p75": 72087.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 65155.0, "metro_p50": 81719.0, "metro_p75": 86056.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 41447.0, "metro_p50": 53528.8, "metro_p75": 62763.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 38083.0, "metro_p50": 47524.4, "metro_p75": 61967.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 70928.5, "metro_p50": 82546.4, "metro_p75": 92484.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30374.5, "metro_p50": 46446.0, "metro_p75": 52725.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55000.0, "metro_p50": 74206.0, "metro_p75": 81759.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 52696.0, "metro_p50": 52937.0, "metro_p75": 58746.25, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 94766.0, "metro_p50": 96998.0, "metro_p75": 97661.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 52000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 43487.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 33590.5, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 52000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 51416.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 45522.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 40485.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 50602.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 31200.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 66504.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "youngstown-warren-boardman-oh-pa-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "youngstown-warren-boardman-oh-pa-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "youngstown-warren-boardman-oh-pa-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T14:38:18.126974+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/youngstown-warren-boardman-oh-pa-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/youngstown-warren-boardman-oh-pa-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}