{"schema_version": 1, "id": "youngstown-warren-boardman-oh-pa-msa/human-resources/2026-09", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 542, "label": "Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA MSA", "slug": "youngstown-warren-boardman-oh-pa-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "human_resources", "slug": "human-resources", "label": "Human Resources"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:13:20.935642+00:00", "headline": "Youngstown unemployment climbs as wages stay stuck below national norms.", "headline_summary": "Metro unemployment hit 4.8% in August \u2014 well above Ohio's 3.3% \u2014 while Mahoning County's $1,064 average weekly wage still trails the $1,654 national figure by over a third.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Metro unemployment rate", "value": "4.8%", "context": "vs 3.3% Ohio, 4.1% national (Aug 2026)"}, {"label": "Mahoning Co. avg weekly wage", "value": "$1,064", "context": "vs $1,654 U.S. average, ranks 361st nationally"}, {"label": "Projected MSA employment growth", "value": "-1.76% annualized", "context": "Among steepest declines of Ohio's 8 largest metros"}, {"label": "Trumbull County unemployment", "value": "5.1%", "context": "Up from 5.0% in June 2026"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "HR Business Partner pay is diverging sharply from the national market.", "body": "Metro median sits at $62,763 and trending down, versus a national median of $83,766 trending up significantly \u2014 a $21,000 gap that widened this month. Local employers benchmarking against national data risk underpricing a role candidates can price-check instantly online."}, {"headline": "Payroll Specialist pay is running hot against a cooling local market.", "body": "Metro median of $70,000 is up significantly and now exceeds the national median of $59,855, an unusual inversion for this metro. Expanded Ohio pay stub and overtime documentation requirements this year likely add real compliance weight to the role, justifying the premium."}, {"headline": "Unemployment is rising, but that is not the same as hiring getting easier.", "body": "Metro unemployment reached 4.8% in August while the MSA's employment base is projected to contract \u2014 meaning more jobless workers but not necessarily more qualified local candidates. Recruiting strategy built on 'more unemployment equals easier hiring' logic likely misreads this market."}, {"headline": "Recruiter pay gains locally may reflect thinner, not deeper, talent benches.", "body": "Metro Recruiter pay is up moderately to $50,000, even as the region's labor force shrinks and job growth slows to 2,200/month statewide. Rising pay for the function tasked with sourcing scarce talent is consistent with employers investing in recruiting capacity precisely because the candidate pool is thinning."}], "local_conditions": "Youngstown-Warren-Boardman's unemployment rate climbed to 4.8% in August, nearly a full point above Ohio's 3.3% and above the national 4.1%, driven by Trumbull County's 5.1% reading and continued softness tied to manufacturing-linked WARN activity across the state. Mahoning County's average weekly wage of $1,064 trails the U.S. average of $1,654 by more than a third, while forecasters project the MSA's employment base contracting at a 1.76% annualized rate \u2014 one of the steepest declines among Ohio's major metros.", "implications": "Rising local unemployment alongside a shrinking regional employment base signals a bifurcated market: HR leaders face less urgency on volume hiring but growing difficulty filling specialized roles where statewide labor force contraction (down 95,000 workers year-over-year) is compounding local weakness. Compensation strategy should prioritize retention in roles showing upward advertised pay movement \u2014 Payroll Specialist and HRIS Analyst locally \u2014 rather than across-the-board increases, since metro wage levels remain structurally depressed relative to national comparables. Consider reviewing retention compensation for mid-skill and technical HR roles where local pay is already lagging the national trajectory, before broader labor force erosion makes backfilling those seats materially harder.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Trumbull County's 5.1% unemployment rate is now meaningfully above Mahoning's 4.6% and the state average \u2014 watch whether this gap widens or whether it signals spillover from Ohio's 23 manufacturing-linked WARN notices in the past 90 days."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Statewide labor force contraction (95,000 fewer workers year-over-year) has not yet shown up as a visible local hiring crunch given rising metro unemployment, but a continued mismatch between job openings and available skilled candidates could emerge quickly if job growth reaccelerates."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Cleveland's Pay Transparency Act compliance requirements are reshaping competitive positioning for larger Ohio employers; Youngstown-area employers with 15+ employees operating across both markets should watch whether similar disclosure norms create local candidate expectations even absent a mandate."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "National Information-sector layoffs (23,000 in August alone) and elevated WARN filings at firms like Amazon and Oracle could send displaced technical and HRIS talent into regional candidate pools; monitor whether Mahoning-Trumbull applicant flow for technical HR roles shows any national-layoff spillover."}], "roles": [{"role": "Compensation Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 68167.75, "metro_p50": 97850.0, "metro_p75": 108186.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 101727.4, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Business Partner", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 41847.0, "metro_p50": 62763.0, "metro_p75": 76189.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 83766.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Benefits Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 83613.0, "metro_p50": 109762.0, "metro_p75": 119674.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 117888.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HRIS Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 74598.0, "metro_p50": 86772.8, "metro_p75": 97797.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 97554.8, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HR Coordinator", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32924.0, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 41976.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 50000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Recruiter", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 39520.0, "metro_p50": 50000.0, "metro_p75": 53040.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 68167.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Payroll Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 46254.0, "metro_p50": 70000.0, "metro_p75": 70000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 59855.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "youngstown-warren-boardman-oh-pa-msa/human-resources/2026-09.html", "pdf": "youngstown-warren-boardman-oh-pa-msa/human-resources/2026-09.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T14:38:17.059560+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/youngstown-warren-boardman-oh-pa-msa/human-resources/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/youngstown-warren-boardman-oh-pa-msa/human-resources/2026-09.pdf"}