{"schema_version": 1, "id": "yakima-wa-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 450, "label": "Yakima, WA MSA", "slug": "yakima-wa-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T08:10:34.637123+00:00", "headline": "Yakima's jobless rate hits three-year low on harvest timing.", "headline_summary": "Yakima County unemployment fell to 4.0% in September, the lowest since 2023, even as Q1 2026 data showed the county posting Washington's steepest large-county employment decline at -0.7%.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Yakima County unemployment rate", "value": "4.0%", "context": "Down from 5.5% in Aug.; lowest since summer 2023"}, {"label": "Yakima avg. weekly wage", "value": "$1,041", "context": "Lowest among WA large counties despite 2.7% growth"}, {"label": "Yakima Q1 employment change", "value": "-0.7% YoY", "context": "Steepest decline among large WA counties"}, {"label": "Washington statewide unemployment", "value": "4.8%", "context": "Third straight monthly decline despite 15,400 job loss"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "September's low jobless rate reflects harvest timing.", "body": "Unemployment fell from 5.5% to 4.0% in a single month, matching a seasonal pattern ESD economists attribute directly to peak harvest hiring. Q1 2026 data showing a -0.7% year-over-year employment decline, the worst among large Washington counties, is the more durable signal of underlying conditions."}, {"headline": "Yakima's wage floor remains a regional outlier within Washington.", "body": "At $1,041 average weekly wages, Yakima trails every other large county in the state even with 2.7% annual growth. That gap matters for household spending power locally and for how the metro's cost structure compares to Seattle-area labor costs when businesses weigh where to locate."}, {"headline": "Local pay movement diverges sharply by sector, a sign of uneven recovery.", "body": "Customer Service Representative pay rose significantly to $46,061 and Warehouse Manager pay climbed to $76,250, while Manufacturing Production Worker pay fell significantly to $37,158 and Operations Manager pay dropped to $101,095. Uneven movement across the basket suggests momentum is concentrated in specific functions, pointing to a recovery that is narrow rather than broad-based."}, {"headline": "Washington's statewide job losses have not yet shown up locally.", "body": "Washington shed 15,400 jobs in September even as its unemployment rate fell, a pattern ESD attributes to labor force contraction. Yakima's employment gain over the same period runs counter to the state trend, worth watching for whether it holds or converges downward."}], "local_conditions": "Yakima County's unemployment rate fell to 4.0% in September, its lowest reading since summer 2023, as the agricultural harvest season pulled seasonal workers into payrolls and employment rose to 124,311 from 123,990 a year earlier. Average weekly wages of $1,041 remain the lowest among Washington's large counties even after 2.7% year-over-year growth, and Q1 2026 data showed the county posting the steepest employment decline of any large Washington county at -0.7%, pointing to a labor market that tightens seasonally but carries structural softness beneath the surface.", "implications": "Seasonal unemployment improvement signals the harvest economy is functioning normally this year, a relevant baseline for commerce leaders gauging consumer spending capacity and retail traffic heading into the winter off-season. Wage levels that trail every other large Washington county, paired with the state's move to a $17.73 minimum wage in January, suggest local employers and economic development organizations should watch whether Yakima's cost advantage over Seattle and Puget Sound metros continues to attract footloose investment or whether it increasingly reflects weaker local earning power. Current conditions suggest government economists and chamber leaders track the gap between seasonal unemployment gains and underlying Q1 employment contraction before reading September's number as durable improvement.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Seasonal inflection point", "body": "Yakima's unemployment rate typically rises as harvest wraps through late fall and winter. Watch whether the rate reverts toward the 5%-plus range seen earlier in 2026, which would confirm September's improvement was seasonal."}, {"category": "Statewide spillover risk", "body": "Washington sits atop the national WARN registry with 16,776 affected workers, including the 3,445-worker Gebbers Farms filing in Brewster, roughly 60 miles from Yakima. Agricultural-sector layoff activity elsewhere in the state is worth tracking for signs of spillover into Yakima's own agricultural labor pool."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Washington's minimum wage rises to $17.73 in January, a 3.5% increase that will land hardest on employers in Yakima's lower-wage service and retail sectors given the county's already-low wage floor. Commerce leaders should watch how local retail and food-service pay levels adjust relative to the new statewide baseline."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Statewide public-sector job losses of roughly 10,400 in September raise a question for local government stability in Yakima, where public-sector employment has historically been a steadying force. Track whether state or local government payrolls in the county show comparable softening in coming months."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31926.0, "metro_p50": 36930.0, "metro_p75": 38648.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35259.0, "metro_p50": 37097.0, "metro_p75": 37507.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 39520.0, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 42120.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62057.0, "metro_p50": 76910.0, "metro_p75": 83980.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33732.0, "metro_p50": 35768.0, "metro_p75": 37818.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 40695.0, "metro_p50": 43815.0, "metro_p75": 43815.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 70720.0, "metro_p50": 85280.0, "metro_p75": 95000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35630.0, "metro_p50": 37158.2, "metro_p75": 38750.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 41540.75, "metro_p50": 46061.0, "metro_p75": 47840.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 43056.0, "metro_p50": 44262.0, "metro_p75": 44799.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37704.0, "metro_p50": 50263.0, "metro_p75": 52852.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 41600.0, "metro_p50": 47840.0, "metro_p75": 52441.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60809.0, "metro_p50": 70720.0, "metro_p75": 73840.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 94279.0, "metro_p50": 116116.0, "metro_p75": 122543.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 129166.0, "metro_p50": 169445.0, "metro_p75": 187138.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 99196.0, "metro_p50": 141962.0, "metro_p75": 157798.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57500.0, "metro_p50": 70000.0, "metro_p75": 72800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 87250.0, "metro_p50": 104798.2, "metro_p75": 112783.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 68474.5, "metro_p50": 86000.0, "metro_p75": 105000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 45010.5, "metro_p50": 62485.0, "metro_p75": 74241.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 83648.0, "metro_p50": 101095.0, "metro_p75": 112134.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 41544.75, "metro_p50": 55575.0, "metro_p75": 69317.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 53539.75, "metro_p50": 75794.0, "metro_p75": 89700.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 62400.0, "metro_p50": 76250.0, "metro_p75": 80000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 84378.0, "metro_p50": 101511.8, "metro_p75": 112400.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 62400.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 65895.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 40574.5, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 63468.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 55000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 50217.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 87989.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 94848.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 36150.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 73140.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "Yakima Herald-Republic", "source_url": null, "statement": "Yakima County unemployment rate fell to 4.0% in September 2026"}, {"source_name": "U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Yakima Q1 2026 employment fell -0.7% YoY, steepest among large WA counties"}, {"source_name": "Washington Department of Labor & Industries", "source_url": null, "statement": "Washington minimum wage rising to $17.73 per hour Jan. 1, 2027"}, {"source_name": "Washington OFM / state WARN tracker", "source_url": null, "statement": "Washington tops national WARN registry with 16,776 affected workers"}, {"source_name": "Washington state WARN registry", "source_url": null, "statement": "Gebbers Farms WARN filing of 3,445 workers effective Nov. 25, 2026"}, {"source_name": "Washington Employment Security Department", "source_url": null, "statement": "Washington lost 15,400 jobs in September while unemployment fell to 4.8%"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "yakima-wa-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "yakima-wa-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "yakima-wa-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:32:43.610153+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/yakima-wa-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/yakima-wa-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}