{"schema_version": 1, "id": "yakima-wa-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 450, "label": "Yakima, WA MSA", "slug": "yakima-wa-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:44:19.411090+00:00", "headline": "Yakima's harvest-season jobless dip masks a cooling state economy.", "headline_summary": "Yakima County unemployment fell to 4.4% in July on harvest hiring, even as Washington cut 14,500 jobs statewide in September and real wages slipped as inflation (3.5%) outpaced wage growth (3.1%).", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Yakima County unemployment", "value": "4.4%", "context": "Down from 4.9% in June 2026, seasonal harvest effect"}, {"label": "Washington statewide jobs change", "value": "-14,500", "context": "September 2026, unemployment held at 4.5%"}, {"label": "Washington wage growth vs inflation", "value": "3.1% vs 3.5%", "context": "Implies ~0.5% annual real-wage decline"}, {"label": "Yakima nonfarm payrolls", "value": "89,600", "context": "Down 400 jobs in July 2026 vs June"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Yakima's July unemployment drop is seasonal, not structural.", "body": "County unemployment fell half a point to 4.4% as harvest work ramped up, a predictable annual pattern given Yakima's position as the nation's top apple-growing county and a top hops supplier. Economic development messaging should distinguish this harvest effect from genuine year-round labor market tightening."}, {"headline": "Statewide layoff activity has not yet surfaced locally \u2014 but bears watching.", "body": "September was Washington's heaviest WARN month of the year, with agricultural and fruit-processing names like Gilbert Orchards and Sundquist Fruit appearing in filings elsewhere in the state. Yakima's own food-processing and orchard operations run on similar seasonal cycles, making the metro a logical place to monitor for similar notices as harvest winds down."}, {"headline": "Real wages are likely falling locally even where posted pay looks stable.", "body": "Statewide wage growth of 3.1% against 3.5% inflation implies a half-point real-wage decline, and most Yakima advertised-pay figures in sectors like retail, food service, and manufacturing show flat or declining trends rather than gains. Softer purchasing power across a wage base this broad is a meaningful signal for any business tracking local consumer demand."}, {"headline": "Healthcare remains Yakima's stabilizing employment anchor.", "body": "Education and health services employ nearly 21% of the county's workforce, and statewide the same sector added over 10,000 jobs even as other industries contracted in September. Virginia Mason Memorial's steady presence suggests healthcare will keep anchoring Yakima's employment base regardless of agricultural seasonality or statewide softening."}], "local_conditions": "Yakima County's unemployment rate fell to 4.4% in July 2026 from 4.9% in June, a seasonal pattern tied to apple and hop harvest activity that pulls the county's labor force above 123,000 even as total nonfarm payrolls dipped by 400 jobs to 89,600. Statewide, Washington's broader slowdown \u2014 14,500 jobs cut in September with wage growth of 3.1% trailing 3.5% inflation \u2014 has not yet shown up in Yakima-specific layoff filings, though nearby agricultural and food-processing employers (Gilbert Orchards, Sundquist Fruit) appear in recent statewide WARN data.", "implications": "Harvest-driven seasonal hiring continues to mask whether Yakima's underlying, non-agricultural economy is strengthening or merely holding steady, which matters for how commerce leaders read the county's investment climate heading into winter. Statewide real-wage erosion \u2014 pay gains of 3.1% against 3.5% inflation \u2014 suggests consumer purchasing power locally may be softer than the headline unemployment improvement implies, a signal worth weighing against any retail or services expansion timeline. Consider evaluating local consumer-facing business plans against wage-vs-inflation trends rather than the unemployment rate alone, since the latter is seasonally distorted in this metro.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected", "body": "Yakima's unemployment rate typically rises again as harvest winds down into late fall; watch whether the post-harvest increase is sharper than prior years, which would suggest the seasonal cushion is thinning rather than merely cycling."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Washington's September WARN notices included fruit and orchard operations elsewhere in the state; any similar filings naming Yakima Valley growers or processors in October would mark a shift from statewide softness to direct metro impact."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "National and state wage-vs-inflation gaps are widening (3.0% national wage growth against 3.4% inflation); if that pattern holds locally, consumer spending at Yakima retail and hospitality businesses may soften into the holiday season."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "October's BLS release will bring the first full read on Yakima's September payroll count; a payroll gain alongside the normal post-harvest unemployment uptick would indicate underlying non-agricultural momentum rather than a one-season effect."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31626.0, "metro_p50": 36930.0, "metro_p75": 38761.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35630.0, "metro_p50": 37097.0, "metro_p75": 38084.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 38117.0, "metro_p50": 40560.0, "metro_p75": 42120.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60913.0, "metro_p50": 76591.0, "metro_p75": 83200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33658.0, "metro_p50": 35630.0, "metro_p75": 37427.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 40695.0, "metro_p50": 43815.0, "metro_p75": 43815.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 70720.0, "metro_p50": 84240.0, "metro_p75": 93600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35447.0, "metro_p50": 36799.8, "metro_p75": 39235.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37944.0, "metro_p50": 43160.0, "metro_p75": 46245.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 43056.0, "metro_p50": 44262.0, "metro_p75": 44799.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 39135.0, "metro_p50": 50263.0, "metro_p75": 52510.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 41503.75, "metro_p50": 49866.0, "metro_p75": 52394.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60809.0, "metro_p50": 70720.0, "metro_p75": 73840.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 93984.0, "metro_p50": 115185.0, "metro_p75": 122516.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 125000.0, "metro_p50": 165593.6, "metro_p75": 183300.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 99264.0, "metro_p50": 142500.0, "metro_p75": 158888.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57500.0, "metro_p50": 72500.0, "metro_p75": 72800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 93500.0, "metro_p50": 112500.0, "metro_p75": 112783.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62400.0, "metro_p50": 86000.0, "metro_p75": 105000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 45742.0, "metro_p50": 62389.2, "metro_p75": 74241.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 79388.5, "metro_p50": 100489.0, "metro_p75": 105250.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 41543.25, "metro_p50": 57591.0, "metro_p75": 72925.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 53040.0, "metro_p50": 65991.8, "metro_p75": 80628.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 51506.0, "metro_p50": 75000.0, "metro_p75": 80000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 84257.0, "metro_p50": 102200.0, "metro_p75": 112400.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 62400.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 79150.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 40560.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 66524.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 55000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 48880.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 84314.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 96072.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 36150.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 74152.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "yakima-wa-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "yakima-wa-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "yakima-wa-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T14:38:14.467363+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/yakima-wa-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/yakima-wa-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}