{"schema_version": 1, "id": "winston-salem-nc-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 483, "label": "Winston-Salem, NC MSA", "slug": "winston-salem-nc-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T08:13:54.775664+00:00", "headline": "Winston-Salem's wage gains split sharply between technical and office roles.", "headline_summary": "Software Engineer pay climbed to $156,000 and HVAC Technician pay to $70,216 even as Business Analyst pay fell to $83,285, against a statewide labor force participation rate stuck at 57.8%.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "NC labor force participation", "value": "57.8%", "context": "vs 61.6% ten-year high reached August 2026"}, {"label": "Winston-Salem area unemployment", "value": "~3.5-3.8%", "context": "vs 4.1% national rate, Oct 2026"}, {"label": "National wage-vs-CPI gap", "value": "1.5% vs 3.5%", "context": "Median weekly earnings vs CPI, Q3 2026"}, {"label": "NC 12-month job growth", "value": "67,000 jobs", "context": "NC tied 5th nationally for payroll gains"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Healthcare and skilled trades carry the metro's wage momentum.", "body": "Registered Nurse pay rose to $98,020 and HVAC Technician pay climbed significantly to $70,216, both outpacing many white-collar categories locally. This pattern is consistent with national data showing healthcare leading private hiring demand and may signal where metro business expansion is concentrated."}, {"headline": "Analytical and administrative roles show real softening.", "body": "Business Analyst advertised pay fell significantly to $83,285 and Data Engineer pay dropped to $112,845, both now trailing national medians by wide margins. The pattern tracks national softness in professional and business services, suggesting local firms in these functions may be consolidating roles."}, {"headline": "Labor force participation is the number to watch.", "body": "North Carolina's statewide participation rate sits at 57.8%, down from a 61.6% peak and reflecting a 1.6% year-over-year labor force decline. A metro with low unemployment but shrinking participation signals capacity constraints that commerce planners should track alongside unemployment figures."}, {"headline": "Public-sector wage moves offer a stabilizing signal for the metro.", "body": "State-directed raises of 2.5% generally, with 5% for nurses and 10% for law enforcement, together with Winston-Salem/Forsyth County Schools' role as a 52,000-student, 81-school employer, anchor household income in sectors insulated from private-sector rotation. That stability matters for consumer spending forecasts even as private wage-vs-inflation dynamics tighten household budgets elsewhere."}], "local_conditions": "Winston-Salem's labor market held tight through October, with regional unemployment running near 3.5-3.8% against a 4.1% national rate, consistent with North Carolina's broader outperformance even as statewide labor force participation stalled at 57.8%, well below its 61.6% ten-year high. Healthcare and financial services anchor local hiring signals \u2014 Atrium Health Wake Forest Baptist, Novant Health and Truist all show sustained advertised pay strength, while metro wage patterns diverge sharply by occupation, with Software Engineer pay up significantly to $156,000 even as Business Analyst and Marketing Specialist job ads, a signal of hiring demand (one ad often covers several openings), show significant local declines.", "implications": "Divergent wage trends across the metro's advertised pay basket \u2014 strong gains in healthcare, skilled trades and operations roles alongside declines in administrative and analytical functions \u2014 point to an economy rewarding specialized technical and clinical capacity while reducing fewer differentiated office-based functions, a signal worth tracking for commerce leaders assessing where local business investment is concentrating. Public-sector stability (Forsyth County Schools as the region's fourth-largest system, state employee raises of 2.5% with larger increases for nurses and law enforcement) offers a steadying counterweight to private-sector sector rotation. Current conditions suggest government economists and chamber leaders track sector-level advertised pay divergence as an early read on which parts of the local business base are expanding capacity versus holding steady.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Watch whether North Carolina's labor force participation rate recovers toward its 61.6% peak or continues drifting lower; a continued decline would tighten effective labor supply in Winston-Salem even if the unemployment rate stays low."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Manufacturing has already turned soft statewide, with recent WARN filings at MasterBrand Cabinets (391 workers, Kinston) and Regional Acceptance Corp (253 workers, Winterville/Greenville). Any similar notice inside the Winston-Salem MSA would be the clearest local signal of sector-level cooling."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Real wage erosion is now a national pattern \u2014 median weekly earnings up 1.5% against 3.5% CPI growth. If that gap persists locally, consumer spending capacity in retail and services could weaken even as headline job counts hold steady."}, {"category": "Expected", "body": "Healthcare systems' continued advertised demand for clinical and travel-contract roles, paired with cybersecurity pay averaging over $115,000 at Truist and area health systems, suggests technical and clinical capacity building will remain the metro's clearest growth signal into early 2027."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22872.5, "metro_p50": 27081.0, "metro_p75": 31720.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22466.0, "metro_p50": 26047.0, "metro_p75": 29109.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30326.0, "metro_p50": 36400.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 52395.0, "metro_p50": 78910.0, "metro_p75": 90326.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27755.0, "metro_p50": 31446.0, "metro_p75": 33201.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33030.0, "metro_p50": 36400.0, "metro_p75": 38883.25, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 51691.0, "metro_p50": 61394.0, "metro_p75": 63440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32043.0, "metro_p50": 36127.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33000.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26311.5, "metro_p50": 32240.0, "metro_p75": 35360.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32371.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 40560.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29327.0, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 45000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55304.5, "metro_p50": 70216.0, "metro_p75": 72800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 81845.0, "metro_p50": 98020.0, "metro_p75": 101036.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 121043.0, "metro_p50": 156000.0, "metro_p75": 170000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56293.75, "metro_p50": 112844.8, "metro_p75": 121784.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54577.0, "metro_p50": 63996.8, "metro_p75": 67600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59039.5, "metro_p50": 74256.0, "metro_p75": 85984.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54029.0, "metro_p50": 64904.4, "metro_p75": 71172.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 46099.75, "metro_p50": 53526.8, "metro_p75": 57605.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 85265.0, "metro_p50": 91024.0, "metro_p75": 91024.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29616.25, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 47725.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59765.0, "metro_p50": 80900.0, "metro_p75": 102170.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 51195.0, "metro_p50": 70000.0, "metro_p75": 82500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 74339.0, "metro_p50": 83285.4, "metro_p75": 100976.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 62551.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 62729.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 34881.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 53891.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 58426.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 63837.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 47338.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 58633.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 29766.5, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 64896.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "NC Office of State Budget and Management / BLS", "source_url": null, "statement": "NC labor force participation rate at 57.8% vs 61.6% peak"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Winston-Salem MSA unemployment rate near 3.5-3.8%"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Median weekly earnings rose 1.5% vs 3.5% CPI gain, Q3 2026"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics / NC Department of Commerce", "source_url": null, "statement": "NC added 67,000 nonfarm jobs over 12 months, tied 5th nationally"}, {"source_name": "NC WARN Act notices (Layoffiq)", "source_url": null, "statement": "MasterBrand Cabinets and Regional Acceptance Corp WARN filings"}, {"source_name": "North Carolina state budget data", "source_url": null, "statement": "State employee raises of 2.5%, with 5%/10% for nurses/law enforcement"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "winston-salem-nc-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "winston-salem-nc-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "winston-salem-nc-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:32:34.987698+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/winston-salem-nc-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/winston-salem-nc-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}