{"schema_version": 1, "id": "winston-salem-nc-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 483, "label": "Winston-Salem, NC MSA", "slug": "winston-salem-nc-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:44:42.059663+00:00", "headline": "Winston-Salem's jobless rate beats the nation, but the lead is untested.", "headline_summary": "Winston-Salem's 3.8% July unemployment rate undercuts the national 4.2%, yet national wage growth of 3.0% trailing 3.4% inflation raises the question of whether the metro's advantage extends to real purchasing power.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Metro unemployment rate", "value": "3.8%", "context": "vs 4.2% national, 3.5% NC (July/Sept 2026)"}, {"label": "National wage growth vs inflation", "value": "3.0% vs 3.4%", "context": "Weakest wage pace since May 2021"}, {"label": "Metro quarterly wage base", "value": "$4.78B", "context": "Up from $4.47B in Q4 2025, Q1 2026"}, {"label": "NC labor force participation", "value": "57.8%", "context": "Down 1.6 pts YoY, tied for 45th nationally"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Winston-Salem's jobless rate outperforms the nation by a full point.", "body": "July's 3.8% metro rate compares favorably to the national 4.2% and sits near the state's 3.5%, suggesting the local economy has so far avoided the hiring slowdown dragging on national payroll growth. Sustained divergence of this size would be a notable story for regional economic development messaging, provided it holds through the next two BLS releases."}, {"headline": "Wage-inflation gap nationally has not yet shown up locally.", "body": "National wage growth slipped to 3.0% against 3.4% inflation in September, the weakest pace since 2021, while Winston-Salem's Q1 total wage base grew roughly 7% quarter over quarter. Whether that local wage momentum is broad-based or concentrated in a few sectors is the key unresolved question for assessing real purchasing power in the metro."}, {"headline": "Public payrolls look like the metro's stabilizing force, not its risk.", "body": "Active recruiting activity at Forsyth County government and Winston-Salem/Forsyth County Schools contrasts with the 216,000 national decline in government jobs over the past year. For a metro this size, continued public-sector payroll stability is a meaningful buffer against national-level government contraction."}, {"headline": "Construction and skilled-trades pay gains diverge from a cooling goods sector.", "body": "HVAC technician pay rose significantly locally ($68,139) and electrician pay moderately ($62,400), consistent with the national pattern of construction (+11,000 jobs in September) outperforming white-collar categories. That split is consistent with continued building and infrastructure activity locally, a signal commerce leaders can cross-check against regional permitting data."}], "local_conditions": "Winston-Salem's unemployment rate held at 3.8% in July 2026, well below the national 4.2% September reading, even as the metro's labor force shows signs of the same participation softness affecting North Carolina statewide. Quarterly wages reached $4.78 billion in Q1 2026, up from $4.47 billion the prior quarter, while national wage growth cooled to 3.0% against 3.4% inflation \u2014 a divergence that leaves the direction of local purchasing power an open, closely watched question heading into fourth-quarter data.", "implications": "Tight local unemployment alongside a national hiring slowdown (29,000 jobs added in September, with July and August revised down a combined 60,000) suggests Winston-Salem's labor market may be running warmer than the national trend, a favorable signal for commerce leaders weighing local expansion or investment timing. Public-sector stability \u2014 visible in active Forsyth County and school-system recruiting \u2014 offers a counterweight to national government payroll contraction, reinforcing the metro's relative insulation from the finance and white-collar softness showing up nationally. Current conditions suggest local economic development officials and chambers should track whether this gap between metro and national momentum persists through year-end data releases before drawing conclusions about structural advantage.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected", "body": "September BLS data for the Winston-Salem MSA has not yet been released as of this writing; the early-October update will show whether the metro's sub-4% unemployment advantage over the national rate held or narrowed."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "North Carolina's labor force participation fell to 57.8%, tied for 45th nationally and down 1.6 points year over year \u2014 a trend partly tied to slowing population growth and demographic shifts. Watch whether Winston-Salem's labor force shows a similar contraction when county-level data updates."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "NC construction and agriculture sectors have seen labor-supply effects tied to shifts in foreign-born workforce participation, a bare-facts dynamic with real implications for regional building and manufacturing capacity. Local economic development bodies should track whether Winston-Salem's construction employment, up locally in advertised pay, shows comparable labor-supply strain."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "National WARN filings remain below 2025's pace (163,273 affected workers this year versus 261,814 last year), and North Carolina's 61 notices year-to-date are concentrated in manufacturing and transportation. A single large regional filing would be the clearest early signal of the national slowdown reaching Winston-Salem directly."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 23169.0, "metro_p50": 27081.0, "metro_p75": 31720.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22478.0, "metro_p50": 26000.0, "metro_p75": 28540.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30450.5, "metro_p50": 36400.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 52000.0, "metro_p50": 78000.0, "metro_p75": 89000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26670.0, "metro_p50": 31239.0, "metro_p75": 32457.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33030.0, "metro_p50": 37378.8, "metro_p75": 41080.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 52000.0, "metro_p50": 62400.0, "metro_p75": 63440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31410.75, "metro_p50": 35776.0, "metro_p75": 36400.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32656.0, "metro_p50": 37535.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26502.0, "metro_p50": 33280.0, "metro_p75": 35360.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32240.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 40560.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28833.0, "metro_p50": 37671.0, "metro_p75": 43527.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55212.25, "metro_p50": 68139.0, "metro_p75": 72800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 81985.0, "metro_p50": 97360.6, "metro_p75": 101171.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 122020.25, "metro_p50": 153912.6, "metro_p75": 170000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 72925.0, "metro_p50": 107869.0, "metro_p75": 119232.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54543.5, "metro_p50": 63960.0, "metro_p75": 68209.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58751.0, "metro_p50": 74256.0, "metro_p75": 86795.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55000.0, "metro_p50": 70000.0, "metro_p75": 72487.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 47944.0, "metro_p50": 55158.0, "metro_p75": 58076.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 63945.0, "metro_p50": 87726.0, "metro_p75": 95855.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29120.0, "metro_p50": 39966.6, "metro_p75": 49165.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60000.0, "metro_p50": 78451.4, "metro_p75": 87982.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 51195.0, "metro_p50": 59000.0, "metro_p75": 81142.25, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 71815.0, "metro_p50": 77937.0, "metro_p75": 85240.25, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 61975.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 59869.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 34980.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 54945.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 60700.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 63651.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 46800.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 56115.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 29309.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 65069.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "winston-salem-nc-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "winston-salem-nc-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "winston-salem-nc-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T14:38:07.247010+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/winston-salem-nc-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/winston-salem-nc-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}