{"schema_version": 1, "id": "winchester-va-wv-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 442, "label": "Winchester, VA-WV MSA", "slug": "winchester-va-wv-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T08:13:04.804723+00:00", "headline": "Winchester's job count stalls while pay splits by sector.", "headline_summary": "Winchester nonfarm employment has held near 74.3-74.5 thousand since January and unemployment drifted to 3.70% in June, even as healthcare pay rises significantly and software engineer pay falls to $68,265 against a $154,403 national median.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Winchester unemployment rate", "value": "3.70%", "context": "Up from 3.20% a year earlier (June 2026)"}, {"label": "Winchester nonfarm employment", "value": "74.5K", "context": "Unchanged since start of 2026"}, {"label": "National unemployment rate", "value": "4.1%", "context": "182K payrolls added in October, above 160K consensus"}, {"label": "WV labor force participation", "value": "53.8%", "context": "vs 61.8% national rate"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Flat job count masks a split local economy.", "body": "Nonfarm employment has sat near 74.3-74.5 thousand since January, yet healthcare and trades pay is rising significantly while professional-services pay (software engineer, business analyst, financial analyst) is falling significantly. A metro-wide unemployment reading of 3.70% obscures this divergence and may lead public commentary to overstate uniform strength."}, {"headline": "Healthcare wage strength looks structural.", "body": "Registered nurse pay ($102,419) and CNA/home health aide pay ($43,464) both post significant or moderate gains locally, tracking Valley Health's anchor role in the metro and the national pattern of healthcare leading private hiring. This points to a durable, ongoing pattern in the metro's largest employment sector even as other sectors soften."}, {"headline": "Professional-services pay erosion is a business-climate signal worth tracking.", "body": "Software engineer ($68,265, down significantly), business analyst ($90,637, down significantly), and financial analyst ($75,169, down moderately) advertised pay all moved against the stable-to-up national trend for these roles. May suggest softening local demand for knowledge-work talent relative to peer metros, a relevant data point for economic development messaging aimed at attracting professional-services employers."}, {"headline": "Real wages are under pressure statewide and nationally alike.", "body": "National median weekly earnings rose 1.5% against 3.5% CPI growth in Q3, and West Virginia's average weekly wage fell 3.2% year-over-year even as its unemployment rate held at 4%. Winchester sits at the crossroads of these two wage environments, meaning consumer purchasing power locally likely tracks the national erosion pattern on its own, without a metro-specific offset."}], "local_conditions": "Winchester's unemployment rate drifted up to 3.70% in June 2026 from 3.20% a year earlier, and nonfarm employment has stalled near 74.3-74.5 thousand since the start of the year, consistent with a metro that has stopped adding jobs even as it stays well below the national 4.1% unemployment rate. Advertised pay in the metro is bifurcating sharply by sector: healthcare and skilled trades roles (CNA/home health aide, HVAC technician, operations manager) show significant upward movement, while white-collar roles tied to Winchester's professional-services base (software engineer, business analyst, financial analyst) show significant declines, a divergence that the stable-to-up national figures for the same roles do not show.", "implications": "Flat headline employment paired with a widening local wage gap between healthcare/trades and professional services points to uneven momentum across sectors, which changes how commerce leaders should read \"is this a good time to expand\" questions by sector instead of at the metro level. A local economy where Valley Health, Shenandoah University, and manufacturers like Trex and American Woodmark anchor demand, while advertised software engineer pay falls to $68,265 against a $154,403 national median, suggests the metro's competitive position for professional-services investment is weakening even as healthcare and production roles hold up. Commerce and economic development leaders should evaluate sector-specific messaging in business-attraction efforts and treat the metro's low unemployment rate as a signal that varies by sector rather than a uniform growth indicator.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected data release", "body": "Official October unemployment figures for the Winchester VA-WV MSA are due November 20, 2026, the first metro-specific read since June's uptick to 3.70%. This will clarify whether the metro's stalled job count is beginning to show up in the unemployment rate itself."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Professional-services pay softening (software engineer, business analyst, financial analyst all down) bears watching for whether it reflects a one-month data artifact or the start of a trend; a second consecutive month of declines would strengthen the case that the metro's knowledge-work segment is losing ground relative to national conditions."}, {"category": "Cross-border labor dynamic", "body": "West Virginia's labor force participation rate (53.8%) remains far below the national 61.8% and Winchester's Berkeley County, WV portion of the MSA sits inside that dynamic. Watch whether West Virginia's flat statewide payrolls and public-sector job losses (government -500, other services -400) spill into labor supply or commuting patterns on the Virginia side of the metro."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "No Winchester-specific WARN notices or plant announcements surfaced this month, standing apart from elevated national WARN activity (3,860 notices, 340,316 workers affected through October 26) and West Virginia's continued coal-sector contraction. Absence of local disruption is itself a data point worth confirming through direct outreach to the Frederick County Economic Development Authority as November reporting approaches."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25257.0, "metro_p50": 29746.0, "metro_p75": 33280.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25948.0, "metro_p50": 30322.4, "metro_p75": 31200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32240.0, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57719.0, "metro_p50": 76154.0, "metro_p75": 88114.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29422.0, "metro_p50": 32250.6, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 35097.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54999.0, "metro_p50": 69647.0, "metro_p75": 73401.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35360.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 39260.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33800.0, "metro_p50": 38532.0, "metro_p75": 40560.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25424.25, "metro_p50": 31200.0, "metro_p75": 31200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35063.0, "metro_p50": 43464.0, "metro_p75": 44460.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33372.0, "metro_p50": 38989.2, "metro_p75": 42935.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56045.0, "metro_p50": 65520.0, "metro_p75": 71240.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 86185.0, "metro_p50": 102419.0, "metro_p75": 113966.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 68265.0, "metro_p50": 68265.0, "metro_p75": 68265.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 101450.0, "metro_p50": 120203.0, "metro_p75": 145600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62976.0, "metro_p50": 76691.4, "metro_p75": 89525.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 63768.25, "metro_p50": 75169.4, "metro_p75": 89934.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62500.0, "metro_p50": 65751.4, "metro_p75": 75000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 40437.75, "metro_p50": 57115.6, "metro_p75": 73008.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 74453.25, "metro_p50": 97653.0, "metro_p75": 99625.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37621.0, "metro_p50": 56872.0, "metro_p75": 68129.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58420.0, "metro_p50": 65000.0, "metro_p75": 72196.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": null, "metro_p25": null, "metro_p50": null, "metro_p75": null, "metro_trend_direction": null, "metro_trend_magnitude": null, "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 78376.0, "metro_p50": 90637.4, "metro_p75": 101832.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 56431.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 60703.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 35808.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 64480.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 59250.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 60036.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 61230.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 98540.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 32210.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 70769.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics (Local Area Unemployment Statistics)", "source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/lau/", "statement": "Winchester VA-WV unemployment rate was 3.70% in June 2026, up from 3.20% a year earlier"}, {"source_name": "U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm", "statement": "182,000 non-farm payrolls added nationally in October, unemployment stable at 4.1%"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics / WV Public Broadcasting", "source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/lau/", "statement": "West Virginia labor force participation rate held at 53.8% versus 61.8% nationally"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/wkyeng.nr0.htm", "statement": "Median weekly earnings rose 1.5% in Q3 2026 vs. 3.5% CPI gain"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics (Current Employment Statistics)", "source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/sae/", "statement": "Winchester total nonfarm employment at 74.5 thousand, flat since start of 2026"}, {"source_name": "WorkForce West Virginia", "source_url": "https://workforcewv.org/", "statement": "West Virginia average weekly wage fell 3.2% year-over-year in September 2026"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "winchester-va-wv-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "winchester-va-wv-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "winchester-va-wv-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:32:33.009993+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/winchester-va-wv-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/winchester-va-wv-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}