{"schema_version": 1, "id": "winchester-va-wv-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 442, "label": "Winchester, VA-WV MSA", "slug": "winchester-va-wv-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:44:37.774006+00:00", "headline": "Winchester jobs grow faster, but so does unemployment.", "headline_summary": "Winchester-area unemployment rose to 3.70% in June even as the metro's 2026 job-growth pace nearly tripled 2025's, while local professional-sector pay falls against rising national medians for the same roles.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Metro unemployment rate", "value": "3.70%", "context": "June 2026, up from 3.20% a year earlier"}, {"label": "2026 monthly job growth pace", "value": "~50 jobs/month", "context": "vs ~17/month average in 2025"}, {"label": "National wage growth vs inflation", "value": "3.0% vs 3.4%", "context": "Weakest real-wage position since May 2021"}, {"label": "Frederick County transportation/warehousing growth", "value": "+22.53%", "context": "2,987 jobs added, outpacing metro average"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Metro unemployment ticked up even as job creation accelerated.", "body": "June's 3.70% rate, up from 3.20% a year prior, coincided with 2026 monthly job gains averaging 50 versus 17 in 2025 -- consistent with more workers entering the labor force rather than layoffs. That combination typically signals a healthy, expanding labor pool rather than economic softening, a distinction that matters for how the metro is described to site-selection consultants."}, {"headline": "Transportation and manufacturing are carrying the metro's momentum.", "body": "Frederick County transportation/warehousing employment grew 22.53% and manufacturing 12.19%, both outpacing broader metro job growth. Concentration in logistics and production suggests the area's momentum is tied to distribution-corridor and industrial investment rather than a broad-based professional-services expansion."}, {"headline": "Local professional-sector pay is falling while the same roles climb nationally.", "body": "Software Engineer, Data Engineer, Accountant and Financial Analyst postings are all down locally (moderate to significant) while national medians for the same roles are flat to rising. Widening gap may reflect a thinner local employer base for these functions and is a relevant data point for any commerce-led pitch targeting knowledge-economy relocation or expansion."}, {"headline": "Health care wage strength stands out against a mixed metro picture.", "body": "Registered Nurse pay rose significantly to $102,419 -- essentially matching the national figure -- and CNA/Home Health Aide pay rose significantly to $43,129, above the national median. Sustained health-care wage growth amid broader softness is consistent with demographic-driven demand rather than a cyclical hiring surge, and points to health care as the metro's most durable sector right now."}], "local_conditions": "Winchester-area unemployment edged up to 3.70% in June 2026 from 3.20% a year earlier even as the metro added jobs at roughly triple its 2025 monthly pace, with transportation/warehousing employment up 22.53% and manufacturing up 12.19% in Frederick County anchoring the gains. Advertised pay in the metro shows a pronounced split -- health care and skilled trades (Registered Nurse at $102,419, CNA/Home Health Aide up significantly to $43,129, Operations Manager up to $98,179) rising sharply while white-collar and professional-services roles (Software Engineer $81,797, Financial Analyst $75,001, Accountant $75,000) are falling, a divergence that echoes the national split between hands-on and white-collar hiring momentum.", "implications": "Rising unemployment alongside accelerating job growth suggests more residents are entering or re-entering the labor force faster than local employers are absorbing them -- a labor-supply signal, not a demand-weakness signal, and one that matters for how commerce groups pitch site-selection and workforce-availability claims to prospective employers. Falling advertised pay across professional and knowledge-sector roles locally, even as those same roles rise nationally, points to a competitiveness gap that regional economic development messaging should address directly rather than soften. Consider evaluating whether current workforce-participation and wage data support the metro's positioning for professional-services and technology investment, given the gap against national pay trends in those categories.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected", "body": "BLS county and MSA data for July-September 2026 should post in the coming weeks; watch whether the unemployment uptick through June continues or reverses, which will clarify whether labor-force growth or demand softness is the better read on current conditions."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "National WARN filings have pulled in Amazon, Meta, Verizon, Oracle and other large employers with logistics or distribution footprints; the Winchester metro's transportation/warehousing concentration (up 22.53%) makes it worth monitoring whether any of that national layoff activity touches regional distribution operations."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Local professional-services pay (software, finance, accounting) is falling even as national figures for those roles hold or rise. Continued divergence over the next two quarters would be a meaningful signal for regional economic development messaging aimed at attracting knowledge-economy employers."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "National wage growth has slipped to 3.0% against 3.4% inflation, the weakest real-wage position since 2021. Whether Winchester's locally strong categories (health care, operations, skilled trades) continue outpacing that national erosion will shape local consumer purchasing power into the fourth quarter."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24876.0, "metro_p50": 28818.4, "metro_p75": 32782.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25419.0, "metro_p50": 29120.0, "metro_p75": 31200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32236.5, "metro_p50": 39126.6, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56160.0, "metro_p50": 75000.0, "metro_p75": 87100.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29422.0, "metro_p50": 33164.8, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31101.0, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54992.0, "metro_p50": 68834.0, "metro_p75": 72800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35360.0, "metro_p50": 36494.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34358.0, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 40560.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25339.5, "metro_p50": 31200.0, "metro_p75": 31720.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34334.5, "metro_p50": 43129.0, "metro_p75": 44095.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32571.0, "metro_p50": 38131.0, "metro_p75": 41588.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 52000.0, "metro_p50": 60733.0, "metro_p75": 65521.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 86320.0, "metro_p50": 102419.0, "metro_p75": 112570.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 68265.0, "metro_p50": 81797.0, "metro_p75": 118485.25, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 96671.25, "metro_p50": 119545.0, "metro_p75": 140941.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60053.0, "metro_p50": 75000.0, "metro_p75": 88780.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 61700.0, "metro_p50": 75000.6, "metro_p75": 94691.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60840.0, "metro_p50": 64171.4, "metro_p75": 67823.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 39432.5, "metro_p50": 59705.0, "metro_p75": 74049.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 68211.75, "metro_p50": 98179.0, "metro_p75": 100283.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 38084.0, "metro_p50": 59347.0, "metro_p75": 69914.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55446.5, "metro_p50": 62500.0, "metro_p75": 72500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": null, "metro_p25": null, "metro_p50": null, "metro_p75": null, "metro_trend_direction": null, "metro_trend_magnitude": null, "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 80209.0, "metro_p50": 96587.0, "metro_p75": 101936.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 56840.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 52418.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 35768.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 62400.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 56129.5, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 60036.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 60528.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 100464.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 31662.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 70768.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "winchester-va-wv-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "winchester-va-wv-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "winchester-va-wv-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T14:38:05.206347+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/winchester-va-wv-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/winchester-va-wv-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}