{"schema_version": 1, "id": "wilmington-nc-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 475, "label": "Wilmington, NC MSA", "slug": "wilmington-nc-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T08:12:09.675641+00:00", "headline": "Wilmington's low jobless rate hides a shrinking labor pool.", "headline_summary": "New Hanover County unemployment sat near 3.3% in August against a 4.1% national rate, but North Carolina's labor force contracted 1.6% over the past year, a divergence central to reading the metro's economic momentum.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "New Hanover County unemployment", "value": "3.3%", "context": "vs 4.1% national, Aug 2026"}, {"label": "NC labor force participation", "value": "57.8%", "context": "vs 61.6% ten-year high, Aug 2026"}, {"label": "NC 12-month labor force change", "value": "-1.6%", "context": "through July 2026, statewide"}, {"label": "NC nonfarm job growth, 12 months", "value": "+67,000", "context": "NC tied 5th nationally for job gains"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Wilmington's tight labor market reflects workforce scarcity as much as economic strength.", "body": "Sub-3.5% unemployment looks favorable against the 4.1% national rate, but North Carolina's labor force contracted 1.6% over the past year statewide. A shrinking pool of available workers appears to be driving the low jobless rate locally alongside robust demand."}, {"headline": "Healthcare and skilled trades are the metro's wage-growth engine.", "body": "Registered Nurse pay rose significantly to a $97,500 local median and HVAC Technician pay climbed to $60,982, both outpacing broader local wage trends. This concentration mirrors the national pattern of healthcare leading private-sector hiring demand and suggests where metro economic activity is concentrating."}, {"headline": "White-collar pay softness diverges sharply from blue-collar gains.", "body": "Data Engineer pay fell significantly to $123,272 locally and Administrative Assistant pay dropped to $39,520, while Construction Laborer and Manufacturing Production Worker pay rose significantly. Commerce leaders assessing the metro's business climate should weigh this bifurcation alongside any single aggregate wage figure."}, {"headline": "Public-sector wage moves offer a stabilizing counterweight.", "body": "Statewide raises of 2.5% for state employees and up to 10% for law enforcement provide a predictable wage floor across government payrolls, a contrast to the inflation-outpaced 1.5% median wage growth reported nationally. This stability may support household spending capacity even as private-sector real wages erode."}], "local_conditions": "New Hanover County unemployment held near 3.3% in August, nearly a full point below the 4.1% national rate, consistent with the tight labor conditions documented statewide through September at 3.4%. Local wage data point to a two-track economy: advertised pay for Registered Nurses, HVAC Technicians, and Operations Managers posted significant year-over-year gains even as Data Engineer and Administrative Assistant pay fell sharply, a divergence that tracks national softening in white-collar job ads, a signal of hiring demand (one ad often covers several openings), against continued strength in healthcare and skilled trades.", "implications": "Sustained sub-4% unemployment alongside NC's statewide labor force decline of 1.6% over the past year suggests Wilmington's labor market tightness reflects a shrinking available workforce as much as economic strength, a distinction that matters for how commerce leaders read the metro's capacity to support new investment or expansion. Wage softening in administrative and data-analytics roles against gains in nursing, construction trades, and operations management signals where the metro's growth capacity is concentrated and where it may be constrained. Local economic development and commerce organizations should consider monitoring labor force participation trends alongside unemployment when assessing the metro's readiness to support announced capital projects or employer expansions.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Data release ahead", "body": "BLS metro-level employment and unemployment figures for October won't publish until December 2, leaving commerce leaders reliant on county-level proxies through the next reporting cycle. Watch whether New Hanover County's August reading of 3.3% holds or drifts toward the state's 3.4% average."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "North Carolina's labor force participation sits at 57.8%, well below its 61.6% ten-year high reached in August, a gap that constrains how much local employers and investors can scale without drawing workers from outside the metro. Sustained participation softness would warrant attention from economic development officials evaluating site-selection pitches."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Manufacturing has shown statewide softening (-1,100 jobs in September, -8,800 over twelve months), even as local Manufacturing Production Worker pay rose significantly. A gap between falling employment and rising local pay could indicate a tightening skilled-trades segment within a shrinking overall manufacturing base."}, {"category": "Policy fact to track", "body": "Federal tariff and immigration enforcement policy continue to shape national labor force growth, cited by BLS as a structural factor behind slower labor force expansion. Commerce and government economists should track any metro-specific WARN filings or sector announcements tied to these federal dynamics as bare, sourced facts."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 23631.0, "metro_p50": 28080.0, "metro_p75": 31200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 23848.0, "metro_p50": 27040.0, "metro_p75": 29057.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31137.25, "metro_p50": 37075.0, "metro_p75": 39525.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 49920.0, "metro_p50": 66040.0, "metro_p75": 78000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30765.0, "metro_p50": 32282.0, "metro_p75": 34898.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32943.0, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 53865.0, "metro_p50": 62400.0, "metro_p75": 66864.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29120.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 40863.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34320.0, "metro_p50": 38480.0, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27901.0, "metro_p50": 32067.6, "metro_p75": 33800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32240.0, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33253.0, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 41974.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 53849.0, "metro_p50": 60982.0, "metro_p75": 70720.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 83296.0, "metro_p50": 97500.0, "metro_p75": 104780.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 119833.0, "metro_p50": 147132.4, "metro_p75": 159000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 107165.0, "metro_p50": 123272.0, "metro_p75": 138893.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55120.0, "metro_p50": 65000.0, "metro_p75": 72500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 71510.0, "metro_p50": 84982.0, "metro_p75": 89406.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 49050.0, "metro_p50": 60000.0, "metro_p75": 69708.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 45399.0, "metro_p50": 54115.2, "metro_p75": 92535.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 63945.0, "metro_p50": 89501.0, "metro_p75": 91024.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30357.25, "metro_p50": 41294.0, "metro_p75": 52944.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 63778.0, "metro_p50": 84567.0, "metro_p75": 96357.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 51195.0, "metro_p50": 70000.0, "metro_p75": 82500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 70083.0, "metro_p50": 71654.0, "metro_p75": 73709.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 53040.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 88664.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 34844.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 44720.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 66492.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 97558.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 57700.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 54494.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 31200.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 64629.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "wilmington-nc-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "wilmington-nc-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "wilmington-nc-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:32:31.019088+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/wilmington-nc-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/wilmington-nc-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}