{"schema_version": 1, "id": "wilmington-nc-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 475, "label": "Wilmington, NC MSA", "slug": "wilmington-nc-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:44:33.259467+00:00", "headline": "Wilmington outpaces the state while North Carolina's labor force shrinks.", "headline_summary": "New Hanover County posted 2.4% year-over-year employment growth and 4.6% wage gains even as North Carolina's labor force fell by nearly 70,000 people and statewide participation slid to 57.8%.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Wilmington MSA unemployment", "value": "3.6%", "context": "July 2026, vs 4.1% national, 3.5% NC"}, {"label": "New Hanover employment growth", "value": "+2.4% YoY", "context": "Largest gain among NC's largest counties"}, {"label": "New Hanover average weekly wage", "value": "$1,347", "context": "Up 4.6% YoY, Q1 2026, vs 0.3% NC decline"}, {"label": "NC labor force participation", "value": "57.8%", "context": "Down 1.6 pts YoY, tied 45th nationally"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Wilmington's economy is decoupling from the state's cooling trend.", "body": "New Hanover County's 2.4% year-over-year employment growth led all large NC counties even as statewide labor force shrank by roughly 70,000 people over the same period. That contrast is unusual enough to warrant scrutiny once fuller county data lands in coming months \u2014 it may reflect in-migration or sector concentration rather than a broad-based surge."}, {"headline": "Wage gains here are real, not just nominal.", "body": "New Hanover's 4.6% weekly wage growth in Q1 2026 clears both the 3.4% national inflation rate and the state's near-flat 0.3% wage decline, meaning local households are seeing actual gains in purchasing power. That dynamic supports consumer spending capacity at a time when national wage-inflation gaps are narrowing household budgets elsewhere."}, {"headline": "Statewide labor force erosion is the metro's real risk, not demand.", "body": "North Carolina's labor force participation rate fell to 57.8% in August, tied for 45th nationally, a decades-long trend that could eventually constrain Wilmington's ability to staff its growth even if local demand stays strong. Commerce leaders evaluating site selection or expansion should treat labor supply, not consumer demand, as the binding constraint to watch."}, {"headline": "Public-sector stability looks intact locally, unlike the national pattern.", "body": "Nationally, government employment has shed 216,000 jobs over the past year and federal/local cuts are showing up in WARN filings elsewhere in the state, including 13 North Carolina notices in the past 90 days. Wilmington has not appeared prominently in those filings, consistent with the education- and healthcare-anchored public employment base providing a steadier floor than in more federally-exposed metros."}], "local_conditions": "Wilmington MSA unemployment held at 3.6% in July, well below the 4.1% national rate, while New Hanover County posted the fastest year-over-year employment growth among North Carolina's largest counties at 2.4%, a signal that the local economy continues to outperform state and national trendlines even as hiring cools nationally. The divergence appears tied to healthcare, tourism, and education-anchored employment (UNCW, Corning, regional hospital systems) alongside a countywide average weekly wage of $1,347 in Q1 2026, up 4.6% year-over-year \u2014 outpacing the 0.3% statewide wage decline and suggesting Wilmington's labor market is running on a different cycle than the rest of North Carolina.", "implications": "Local wage growth outpacing both state and national inflation trends points to a metro economy still generating real purchasing power gains, a meaningful contrast to the national picture where wage growth has slipped to 3.0% against 3.4% inflation. For commerce leaders evaluating expansion or investment timing, New Hanover County's outsized employment growth and wage momentum suggest the Wilmington basin retains underlying demand strength even as national payroll growth slows to its weakest pace since 2021; government economists should note that the gap between Wilmington's trajectory and the state's declining labor force participation (57.8%, down 1.6 points year-over-year) raises questions about whether local labor supply can keep pace with demand. Current conditions suggest monitoring whether county-level labor force figures, once released, confirm participation holding steadier locally than the statewide trend \u2014 a key input for assessing whether the metro's growth is supply-constrained.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected release", "body": "BLS will publish Wilmington MSA September unemployment data in early October along with delayed county-level figures through mid-2026. These will be the first hard confirmation of whether New Hanover's growth lead held through late summer or has begun converging toward the state average."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Watch whether North Carolina's 61 WARN notices and 5,753 affected workers statewide in 2026 \u2014 concentrated in manufacturing, transportation, and healthcare \u2014 begin to touch the Wilmington basin. None have been prominent locally so far, but the state's construction and logistics exposure warrants monitoring given those sectors' presence in the Cape Fear region."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "National wage growth has fallen to its slowest pace since May 2021 (3.0%) against 3.4% inflation; if that dynamic persists, it may eventually pressure Wilmington's currently stronger wage trajectory, particularly in sectors tied to national pay scales like logistics and manufacturing."}, {"category": "Policy-relevant signal", "body": "North Carolina's construction and agriculture sectors face labor pressure tied to shifts in the foreign-born workforce, a bare fact relevant to Wilmington's active construction and tourism-adjacent sectors given regional population growth; no advocacy position is implied, but the staffing effect merits tracking as federal immigration enforcement policy evolves."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 23722.0, "metro_p50": 27917.4, "metro_p75": 31200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 23722.0, "metro_p50": 27040.0, "metro_p75": 28600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30825.25, "metro_p50": 35930.2, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 47983.0, "metro_p50": 64480.0, "metro_p75": 75769.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30859.0, "metro_p50": 32282.0, "metro_p75": 35507.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31221.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 53822.25, "metro_p50": 62892.2, "metro_p75": 67042.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28839.0, "metro_p50": 34075.0, "metro_p75": 37793.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33600.0, "metro_p50": 37660.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28683.0, "metro_p50": 32185.0, "metro_p75": 34112.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31804.0, "metro_p50": 34840.0, "metro_p75": 37320.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32267.0, "metro_p50": 39300.0, "metro_p75": 40201.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 53848.0, "metro_p50": 60740.0, "metro_p75": 70641.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 83200.0, "metro_p50": 96999.8, "metro_p75": 104363.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 116407.25, "metro_p50": 147108.0, "metro_p75": 158213.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 107165.0, "metro_p50": 129511.0, "metro_p75": 144884.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55120.0, "metro_p50": 65065.0, "metro_p75": 75000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 71872.0, "metro_p50": 85797.0, "metro_p75": 89461.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 47670.5, "metro_p50": 62460.0, "metro_p75": 70000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 45000.0, "metro_p50": 54500.0, "metro_p75": 55832.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 63665.0, "metro_p50": 83364.0, "metro_p75": 89625.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29674.5, "metro_p50": 40644.0, "metro_p75": 52434.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 63778.0, "metro_p50": 83912.6, "metro_p75": 98491.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 51195.0, "metro_p50": 59000.0, "metro_p75": 81142.25, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 70128.0, "metro_p50": 71615.0, "metro_p75": 71654.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 54919.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 89300.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 34773.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 43680.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 66492.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 98900.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 57500.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 54080.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 31200.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 65551.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "wilmington-nc-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "wilmington-nc-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "wilmington-nc-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T14:38:03.155345+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/wilmington-nc-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/wilmington-nc-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}