{"schema_version": 1, "id": "wichita-falls-tx-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 434, "label": "Wichita Falls, TX MSA", "slug": "wichita-falls-tx-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "restaurant_industry", "slug": "restaurant-industry", "label": "Restaurant Industry"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:19:54.229546+00:00", "headline": "Wichita Falls restaurant labor splits: FOH eases, kitchens stay tight.", "headline_summary": "Metro unemployment rose to 4.5% while Crew pay fell to $24,624, but Line Cook pay held at $28,408 as back-of-house turnover keeps kitchen roles in a tighter market.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Metro unemployment rate", "value": "4.5%", "context": "Up from 4.2% a year earlier (Aug 2026)"}, {"label": "Crew advertised pay", "value": "$24,624", "context": "Down moderately, metro median"}, {"label": "Line Cook advertised pay", "value": "$28,408", "context": "Stable, vs $37,421 national median"}, {"label": "TX leisure/hospitality employment", "value": "-1,700 jobs", "context": "October 2026, statewide monthly change"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Softening local unemployment gives FOH hiring some breathing room.", "body": "Metro unemployment rose to 4.5% in August from 4.2% a year ago, and Crew advertised pay is down moderately to $24,624 \u2014 a signal that entry-level front-of-house labor supply has loosened. Operators may find less urgency to raise starting wages for cashier and host roles through year-end."}, {"headline": "Back-of-house wage pressure diverges from front-of-house softness.", "body": "Line Cook pay sits stable at $28,408 even as Crew pay slips, consistent with national data showing cooks projected to grow 12% through 2035 against 2% for servers. Compensation strategy should treat kitchen roles as a tighter, separate labor market, benchmarked on their own trajectory apart from overall restaurant wage trends."}, {"headline": "Tipped-wage rule change creates a near-term cost lever.", "body": "DOL's October withdrawal of the 80/20 rule lets Texas operators pay the $2.13 tipped rate for more side work without the 20% threshold, reducing direct wage exposure during slow shifts. Savings will be modest in a metro where Server pay is already stable at $27,305, but the rule applies statewide and is worth incorporating into FOH labor cost modeling now."}, {"headline": "Manager pay sits well below national levels, a retention exposure point.", "body": "Restaurant Manager/General Manager advertised pay in Wichita Falls is $51,995 versus a $59,724 national median \u2014 a gap of roughly 13%. With regional operators already reporting 77% facing higher labor costs in H1 2026, a widening manager pay gap could become a flight risk as nearby Texas metros compete for scarce management talent."}], "local_conditions": "Wichita Falls MSA unemployment climbed to 4.5% in August 2026, up from 4.2% a year earlier, while the civilian labor force held near 66.0 thousand \u2014 a sign of softening demand with workers staying in the labor force. Statewide, leisure and hospitality employment fell 1,700 positions in October, and the delayed Skybox data center groundbreaking removes a potential competing wage anchor for the metro's construction and trades labor pool, leaving restaurant operators competing primarily against local retail and municipal hiring events.", "implications": "Rising metro unemployment alongside flat-to-down advertised pay for Crew ($24,624, down moderately) suggests front-of-house entry-level hiring has gained some slack after two years of tight competition, but cooks and other back-of-house roles remain structurally harder to fill given BLS projections of 12% growth in cook employment through 2035 versus 2% for servers. Operators recalibrating labor cost as a share of revenue should treat FOH and BOH as separate markets: Crew and Server pay can likely hold flat near-term, while Line Cook pay ($28,408 metro, stable) may need to move to retain staff as regional turnover near 80% keeps pressure on kitchens. Consider reviewing whether current tipped-wage administration takes advantage of the DOL's October withdrawal of the 80/20 rule, which removes the 20% cap on non-tip-producing side work paid at the $2.13 tipped rate in Texas.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Watch whether September's uptick to 4.5% unemployment persists when official October MSA data releases in late November. A continued rise would support holding or trimming planned FOH wage increases into Q1."}, {"category": "Policy follow-through", "body": "Monitor how quickly local operators adjust side-work scheduling and tipped-wage administration now that Texas no longer enforces the 80/20 rule \u2014 early movers could see modest labor cost relief ahead of competitors."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Skybox data center delays remove one source of competing wage pressure for the metro's broader labor pool; any announced restart of the project would likely tighten construction and skilled-trades wages and could pull marginal back-of-house candidates away from kitchens."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Statewide leisure and hospitality employment fell 1,700 in October even as Texas added jobs overall \u2014 a divergence worth tracking locally, since it may signal Q4 seasonal hiring in restaurants is lagging broader labor demand recovery."}], "roles": [{"role": "Assistant Restaurant Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 20966.0, "metro_p50": 33298.0, "metro_p75": 35360.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39211.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Catering Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 35334.0, "metro_p50": 51994.0, "metro_p75": 56706.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 50076.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Crew", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 20985.0, "metro_p50": 24624.0, "metro_p75": 25880.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 30066.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Line Cook", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24960.0, "metro_p50": 28408.0, "metro_p75": 30109.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 37421.4, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Restaurant Manager/General Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 45326.0, "metro_p50": 51995.0, "metro_p75": 54310.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 59724.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Server", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24960.0, "metro_p50": 27305.4, "metro_p75": 32033.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 35024.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Shift Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25308.0, "metro_p50": 28807.0, "metro_p75": 29746.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33024.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [{"source_name": "Texas Workforce Commission", "source_url": null, "statement": "Wichita Falls MSA unemployment rate and labor force size, August 2026"}, {"source_name": "NewsChannel 6 Now", "source_url": null, "statement": "Skybox data center groundbreaking delay, October 2026"}, {"source_name": "U.S. Department of Labor", "source_url": null, "statement": "DOL withdrawal of 80/20 tipped wage rule, October 2026"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "BLS cook employment growth projection vs. waiters, 2025-2035"}, {"source_name": "Texas Restaurant Association", "source_url": null, "statement": "Texas operators reporting labor cost increases in H1 2026"}, {"source_name": "Texas Workforce Commission", "source_url": null, "statement": "Texas leisure and hospitality employment decline, October 2026"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "wichita-falls-tx-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.html", "pdf": "wichita-falls-tx-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:32:25.080010+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/wichita-falls-tx-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/wichita-falls-tx-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.pdf"}