{"schema_version": 1, "id": "wichita-falls-tx-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 434, "label": "Wichita Falls, TX MSA", "slug": "wichita-falls-tx-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "restaurant_industry", "slug": "restaurant-industry", "label": "Restaurant Industry"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:36:49.331685+00:00", "headline": "Wichita Falls restaurant pay falls as the local labor market shrinks.", "headline_summary": "Metro Assistant Manager pay dropped significantly to $33,298 and Server pay fell to $27,265 even as Wichita Falls unemployment climbed to 4.5%, a divergence from Texas's statewide 65% understaffing rate among restaurant operators.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Metro unemployment rate", "value": "4.5%", "context": "vs 4.0% Texas, 4.1% national (Aug 2026)"}, {"label": "Metro nonfarm employment change", "value": "-1.2% YoY", "context": "One of only two contracting TX metros"}, {"label": "TX restaurants reporting understaffing", "value": "65%", "context": "Despite metro-level pay declines"}, {"label": "National accommodation/food svc openings", "value": "673,000", "context": "Down from 916,000 in Jan 2026"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Server pay is falling locally while holding steady nationally.", "body": "Metro median Server pay dropped moderately to $27,265 against a stable $35,012 national figure \u2014 a widening gap unusual during a period of regional employment contraction. Operators testing lower advertised rates should watch fill-time and offer-acceptance closely before assuming the softer labor market fully supports the pullback."}, {"headline": "Assistant Manager pay cuts outpace the broader market slide.", "body": "Metro Assistant Restaurant Manager pay fell significantly to $33,298, a wider decline than the national moderate drop to $39,000. Layered onto a metro that lost 700 net jobs over the year, this looks less like market correction and more like operators reducing management investment during a contraction \u2014 a risk to bench strength when hiring rebounds."}, {"headline": "Hourly BOH roles show unusual stability amid metro-wide softness.", "body": "Line Cook and Crew pay held stable locally and nationally despite the metro's broader employment contraction, suggesting these roles remain difficult to backfill even when overall labor demand weakens. Current conditions suggest treating BOH pay as a floor to protect rather than a target for savings."}, {"headline": "Statewide understaffing data doesn't match local pay retrenchment.", "body": "Texas operators report 65% understaffing and full-service restaurants remain 183,000 jobs below pre-pandemic levels statewide, yet Wichita Falls advertised pay for Server, Assistant Manager, and GM roles all moved down this month. Local operators may be relying on the metro's weaker job market to recruit without matching statewide wage urgency \u2014 a stance worth testing against actual applicant flow."}], "local_conditions": "Wichita Falls MSA employment contracted 1.2% year-over-year through August 2026 \u2014 one of only two shrinking Texas metros \u2014 while the area unemployment rate climbed to 4.5%, running well above the state's 4.0% reading. Restaurant hiring sits inside a shrinking labor pool even as statewide leisure/hospitality payrolls added 4,900 jobs in August, meaning local operators compete against a smaller candidate base than peer metros.", "implications": "Metro-wide softening employment typically eases labor-cost pressure, but local advertised pay tells a different story \u2014 Server pay down moderately to $27,265 and Assistant Manager pay down significantly to $33,298 metro-median, both trailing national figures by wide margins, suggesting employers are pulling back on posted rates even as Texas hospitality reports 65% of operators understaffed statewide. This divergence between a contracting labor market and falling advertised pay may signal operators testing whether a tighter local supply lets them hold the line on wage growth without losing fill rates. Consider reviewing whether current advertised rates for FOH roles still clear the market, given Sheppard Air Force Base and distribution employers like UPS and WinCo compete for the same hourly labor pool.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Wichita Falls unemployment has risen from 4.7% in June to a preliminary 4.5% in August against a declining nonfarm employment base \u2014 watch whether this reflects labor force exit rather than genuine slack, which would limit any hiring advantage from the softer headline rate."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Assistant Manager and GM advertised pay fell significantly this month even as Texas hospitality statewide reports acute understaffing; a continued local-state divergence could force a correction in advertised management pay within the next hiring cycle."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Howmet Aerospace and other manufacturers advertising foundry and operator roles locally compete directly with restaurants for the same hourly labor pool \u2014 monitor whether aerospace-sector hiring in Wichita Falls accelerates and pulls BOH candidates further from food service."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "National accommodation and food service job openings fell from 916,000 to 673,000 through July, easing competition for workers industry-wide; watch whether this national cooling reaches Wichita Falls or whether the metro's already-contracting labor market means local tightness persists regardless."}], "roles": [{"role": "Assistant Restaurant Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22865.0, "metro_p50": 33298.0, "metro_p75": 35360.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 39000.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Catering Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 35360.0, "metro_p50": 50871.2, "metro_p75": 56706.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 50960.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Crew", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22467.5, "metro_p50": 24825.6, "metro_p75": 27774.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 29839.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Line Cook", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24960.0, "metro_p50": 28431.8, "metro_p75": 30788.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 36826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Restaurant Manager/General Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 45326.0, "metro_p50": 52091.0, "metro_p75": 55000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 59618.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Server", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24960.0, "metro_p50": 27265.0, "metro_p75": 31403.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 35012.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Shift Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24541.0, "metro_p50": 28807.0, "metro_p75": 29747.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 32731.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "wichita-falls-tx-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.html", "pdf": "wichita-falls-tx-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T14:37:57.804900+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/wichita-falls-tx-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/wichita-falls-tx-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.pdf"}