{"schema_version": 1, "id": "wichita-falls-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 434, "label": "Wichita Falls, TX MSA", "slug": "wichita-falls-tx-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:44:18.738227+00:00", "headline": "Wichita Falls payrolls shrink while Texas economy expands.", "headline_summary": "Metro nonfarm employment fell 1.2% to 58,800 jobs and unemployment climbed to 4.5% even as Texas added 159,400 jobs statewide, with advertised pay data showing trades and logistics roles pulling sharply ahead of office occupations.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Metro nonfarm employment", "value": "58,800", "context": "Down 1.2% YoY, one of two contracting TX metros"}, {"label": "Metro unemployment rate", "value": "4.5%", "context": "Up from 3.9% a year earlier; TX rate near 4.0%"}, {"label": "Texas statewide job growth", "value": "+159,400 jobs", "context": "1.1% annual growth vs metro's -1.2% decline"}, {"label": "Open positions, Wichita Falls MSA", "value": "5,341", "context": "Indeed listings, September 2026"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Wichita Falls is losing jobs while Texas is gaining them.", "body": "Metro nonfarm employment fell 1.2% year-over-year to 58,800 even as the state added 159,400 jobs (1.1% growth), placing Wichita Falls among just two contracting Texas metros. That divergence matters for how local economic data gets read against state and national headlines that otherwise read as broadly positive."}, {"headline": "Trades and transportation pay is pulling away from office work.", "body": "CDL Truck Driver advertised pay rose to a metro median of $87,877 (significant increase, well above the $78,000 national figure) and Construction Laborer pay rose significantly to $48,880, while Accountant and Account Manager pay both declined. Consider this a sign that physical and logistics-adjacent labor is commanding scarce local supply even as white-collar roles soften."}, {"headline": "Aerospace and industrial names are the metro's steadiest economic anchor.", "body": "Pratt & Whitney, Howmet Aerospace, Mann+Hummel and Westlake Pipe and Fittings continue to post openings even as total metro payrolls contract, consistent with national and state data showing manufacturing outperforming white-collar sectors. This concentration suggests metro economic resilience currently rests on a narrow industrial base rather than broad-based recovery."}, {"headline": "Rising unemployment with falling payrolls is a weaker combination than either alone.", "body": "Metro unemployment reached 4.5% in August, up from 3.9% a year earlier, while total nonfarm employment simultaneously declined -- a pairing that rules out the more benign explanation of workers entering the labor force faster than jobs are created. Commerce leaders should treat local business climate claims with that caveat attached."}], "local_conditions": "Wichita Falls MSA nonfarm employment fell to 58,800 in August 2026, a 1.2% annual decline that makes it one of only two contracting Texas metros even as the state added 159,400 jobs over the same period, while metro unemployment climbed to 4.5% against a state rate near 4.0%. Divergent advertised pay across the basket -- CDL Truck Driver and Construction Laborer up significantly while Customer Service Representative, Account Manager and Accountant pay fall -- suggests the local economy is splitting between trades/logistics-linked demand tied to manufacturers like Pratt & Whitney, Mann+Hummel and Howmet Aerospace and softening office and administrative activity.", "implications": "Contracting payrolls alongside rising advertised pay in trades and transportation point to a metro economy where overall capacity is shrinking even as specific sectors tied to aerospace and industrial production tighten -- a signal for economic development officials to distinguish between broad-based softening and concentrated, defensible strength. Commerce leaders weighing expansion or investment timing should treat the headline job count and the sector-level wage signals as two separate stories rather than a single verdict on local business conditions. Current conditions suggest monitoring whether aerospace-linked and logistics wage strength (CDL Truck Driver, Construction Laborer) persists through year-end as a leading indicator of whether Wichita Falls stabilizes before the broader Texas and national slowdown deepens.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Watch whether Howmet Aerospace and Pratt & Whitney postings convert into measurable payroll growth in the next TWC release -- national and state data both show aerospace/manufacturing as a bright spot, and Wichita Falls' trajectory will show whether that strength is reaching this metro specifically."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Metro unemployment has risen for three consecutive readings (3.9% to 4.7% to 4.5%) while employment contracted 1.2% annually -- a combination worth tracking against the next two TWC releases to determine whether this is stabilizing or deepening."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Texas manufacturing wage growth of 4.8% statewide and accelerating production/new orders data suggest a possible regional tailwind; local economic development officials should watch whether Wichita Falls' industrial employers participate in that acceleration or continue to lag it."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "National wage growth has slipped to 3.0% against 3.4% inflation -- the first sustained negative real-wage stretch since 2021. If that national pattern reaches Wichita Falls' already-softening customer service and administrative pay lines, consumer spending capacity locally could weaken further."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24243.5, "metro_p50": 27040.0, "metro_p75": 31947.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22465.0, "metro_p50": 24960.0, "metro_p75": 28075.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 38455.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60482.0, "metro_p50": 87877.4, "metro_p75": 96200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27040.0, "metro_p50": 30862.0, "metro_p75": 33510.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32137.0, "metro_p50": 48880.0, "metro_p75": 48880.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 53348.75, "metro_p50": 71345.0, "metro_p75": 77243.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32240.0, "metro_p50": 32240.0, "metro_p75": 33280.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32240.0, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 36571.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24960.0, "metro_p50": 28975.4, "metro_p75": 33280.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30596.5, "metro_p50": 33280.0, "metro_p75": 35946.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27725.0, "metro_p50": 34094.8, "metro_p75": 37147.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 57200.0, "metro_p50": 69086.6, "metro_p75": 75777.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 84003.0, "metro_p50": 105271.0, "metro_p75": 115118.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 113156.0, "metro_p50": 152465.0, "metro_p75": 167278.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 100220.25, "metro_p50": 136140.4, "metro_p75": 154980.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 53477.5, "metro_p50": 62258.0, "metro_p75": 79325.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 72922.0, "metro_p50": 93297.6, "metro_p75": 101911.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 54143.5, "metro_p50": 72500.0, "metro_p75": 83526.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 46677.0, "metro_p50": 60734.0, "metro_p75": 71585.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 70000.0, "metro_p50": 83711.8, "metro_p75": 98390.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28174.0, "metro_p50": 52656.6, "metro_p75": 59053.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32708.0, "metro_p50": 60454.6, "metro_p75": 66156.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 48368.0, "metro_p50": 70236.8, "metro_p75": 81507.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 79805.0, "metro_p50": 97107.0, "metro_p75": 109494.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 51775.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 72000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 33592.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 61249.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 50921.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 53040.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 59326.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 73840.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 29159.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 67273.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "wichita-falls-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "wichita-falls-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "wichita-falls-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T14:37:57.484208+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/wichita-falls-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/wichita-falls-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}