{"schema_version": 1, "id": "wi-nonmetropolitan-area/restaurant-industry/2026-10", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 418, "label": "WI NONMETROPOLITAN AREA", "slug": "wi-nonmetropolitan-area"}, "focus_area": {"key": "restaurant_industry", "slug": "restaurant-industry", "label": "Restaurant Industry"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:18:50.043815+00:00", "headline": "Nonmetro Wisconsin's wage floor gap widens hiring risk.", "headline_summary": "Statewide unemployment holds at 3.2%, but county rates range from 2.5% in Lafayette to 5.8% in Menominee, while Wisconsin's frozen $7.25 minimum trails Minnesota's $11.41 and Illinois' $15.00.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "County unemployment spread", "value": "2.5%\u20135.8%", "context": "Lafayette vs. Menominee County, Aug 2026"}, {"label": "State minimum wage", "value": "$7.25", "context": "Unchanged since 2009; MN $11.41, IL $15.00"}, {"label": "Manager vs. Crew pay gap", "value": "$57,000 vs $27,040", "context": "GM pay up significantly; Crew pay down, metro"}, {"label": "Wisconsin nonfarm payrolls", "value": "-13,700", "context": "Statewide, September 2026 vs. prior month"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "County-level labor supply varies widely across the market.", "body": "A 3.3-point unemployment gap between Menominee (5.8%) and Lafayette (2.5%) means identical advertised pay can yield very different applicant flow depending on location. Multi-site operators should benchmark by county alongside the statewide 3.2% figure."}, {"headline": "Server pay is softening while kitchen roles stay firm.", "body": "Metro Server advertised pay fell to a median $32,947, a moderate decline, while Line Cook pay held stable at $35,881. The gap is consistent with national projections showing cook demand growing six times faster than waiter demand through 2035, a structural shift in where retention risk concentrates."}, {"headline": "Manager pay is pulling away from the rest of the wage ladder.", "body": "Restaurant Manager/GM advertised pay rose significantly to a metro median $57,000, even as Crew ($27,040) and Shift Manager ($30,760) pay declined. Widening management-to-hourly spread may reflect operators paying up to retain scarce supervisory talent while compressing entry-level costs elsewhere."}, {"headline": "Tipped-wage deregulation changes the FOH cost calculus.", "body": "DOL's October withdrawal of the 80/20 rule lets operators use the $2.13 federal tipped wage for side work without a 20% cap, a change with outsized relevance in a state where the $2.33 tipped floor already undercuts neighboring Minnesota and Illinois. Expect renewed scrutiny of how side-work hours are scheduled and documented."}], "local_conditions": "Nonmetro Wisconsin's tight 3.2% statewide unemployment rate coexists with wide county-level divergence \u2014 Menominee at 5.8% versus Lafayette at 2.5% \u2014 meaning restaurant operators face sharply different labor pools depending on which county they staff from. Wisconsin's $7.25 minimum wage and $2.33 tipped wage, frozen since 2009, increasingly strain recruiting against Minnesota's $11.41 and Illinois' $15.00, pulling workers toward border counties and metro ordinances like Milwaukee's $12.00 floor.", "implications": "Wage-floor stagnation forces nonmetro operators to compete on advertised pay and scheduling flexibility, particularly for front-of-house roles where DOL's October elimination of the 80/20 tipped-wage rule now permits more side-work hours without a 20% cap \u2014 a lever for trimming labor cost as a share of revenue. Back-of-house roles face the opposite pressure: cooks are projected to grow 12% nationally through 2035 against 2% for waiters, meaning kitchen staffing will likely tighten faster than front-of-house even as server pay softens. Consider reviewing whether current tipped-wage administration takes full advantage of the revised 80/20 guidance before the next scheduling cycle.\n\n", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected release", "body": "BLS publishes October state and metro employment data November 20, with Wisconsin nonmetro county breakdowns typically following in late November or early December via DWD. Watch whether county unemployment divergence (Menominee vs. Lafayette) narrows or widens."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Wisconsin's frozen $7.25/$2.33 wage floor against Minnesota's $11.41 and Illinois' $15.00 continues to pull nonmetro workers toward border counties and Milwaukee's $12.00 local ordinance. Operators near state lines should monitor applicant flow for signs of cross-border wage shopping."}, {"category": "Policy follow-through", "body": "80/20 rule elimination is new as of October; state-level guidance on how Wisconsin DWD interprets side-work documentation under the revised federal standard has not yet surfaced. Confirm whether Wisconsin issues its own clarifying guidance before relying on the federal change for scheduling decisions."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Wisconsin lost 13,700 nonfarm payroll jobs statewide in September even as Leisure & Hospitality grew roughly 3%, a divergence that may signal hospitality is absorbing workers shed elsewhere. Track whether this cross-sector movement eases nonmetro back-of-house vacancies."}], "roles": [{"role": "Assistant Restaurant Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32727.0, "metro_p50": 40820.0, "metro_p75": 45544.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39211.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Catering Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 38115.5, "metro_p50": 50416.0, "metro_p75": 55284.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 50076.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Crew", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 23546.0, "metro_p50": 27040.0, "metro_p75": 29120.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 30066.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Line Cook", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29827.0, "metro_p50": 35881.0, "metro_p75": 38526.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 37421.4, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Restaurant Manager/General Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 50000.0, "metro_p50": 57000.0, "metro_p75": 65000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 59724.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Server", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26254.0, "metro_p50": 32947.0, "metro_p75": 35419.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 35024.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Shift Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27162.0, "metro_p50": 30760.0, "metro_p75": 32240.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33024.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [{"source_name": "BLS Local Area Unemployment Statistics / USAFacts", "source_url": null, "statement": "County unemployment range 2.5% (Lafayette) to 5.8% (Menominee), Aug 2026"}, {"source_name": "Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development", "source_url": null, "statement": "Wisconsin minimum wage $7.25, tipped $2.33, unchanged since 2009"}, {"source_name": "U.S. Department of Labor", "source_url": null, "statement": "DOL withdrew 80/20 tipped-wage rule in October 2026"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Cooks projected to grow 12% 2025-2035 vs. 2% for waiters"}, {"source_name": "Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development / BLS", "source_url": null, "statement": "Wisconsin lost 13,700 nonfarm payroll jobs in September 2026"}, {"source_name": "Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development", "source_url": null, "statement": "Leisure & Hospitality employment grew about 3% in Wisconsin"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "wi-nonmetropolitan-area/restaurant-industry/2026-10.html", "pdf": "wi-nonmetropolitan-area/restaurant-industry/2026-10.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:32:22.645653+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/wi-nonmetropolitan-area/restaurant-industry/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/wi-nonmetropolitan-area/restaurant-industry/2026-10.pdf"}