{"schema_version": 1, "id": "wausau-wi-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 526, "label": "Wausau, WI MSA", "slug": "wausau-wi-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "restaurant_industry", "slug": "restaurant-industry", "label": "Restaurant Industry"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:20:10.892534+00:00", "headline": "Wausau's tight labor market pulls manager pay up, crew pay down.", "headline_summary": "Marathon County unemployment held at 3.0% in August while metro Assistant Manager pay climbed to $50,960 against a national $39,211, even as Crew pay slipped to $28,845.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Marathon County unemployment", "value": "3.0%", "context": "Aug 2026, vs 4.2% national (Sept)"}, {"label": "Wisconsin real wage growth", "value": "-5.1%", "context": "Steepest decline of any state, YoY"}, {"label": "Restaurant annual turnover", "value": "~80%", "context": "Up from 72% pre-pandemic"}, {"label": "Operators reporting rising labor costs", "value": "33%", "context": "6-14% increase, up 15 pts since early 2026"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Assistant Manager pay is breaking out while front-line roles stay flat.", "body": "Metro Assistant Restaurant Manager pay rose to a $50,960 median, well above the $39,211 national figure, even as Crew pay fell to $28,845 locally. Widening management-to-crew pay gaps in a 3.0%-unemployment market may signal operators are consolidating supervisory responsibility while holding entry-level headcount steady."}, {"headline": "Crew wage softening looks risky given Wisconsin's turnover math.", "body": "Metro Crew pay dropped to $28,845, a moderate decline, against a national median holding near $30,066. With statewide restaurant turnover near 80% and 70% of operators reporting hard-to-fill roles, discounting entry-level pay into a tight labor pool may widen the staffing gap even as it aims to control costs."}, {"headline": "Tipped-wage policy now diverges sharply by state, raising cross-border exposure.", "body": "Wisconsin's $2.33 tipped wage sits far below Minnesota's full $11.41 minimum, and DOL's October repeal of the federal 80/20 rule adds a second axis of regional fragmentation. Operators near the Minnesota border should weigh whether frozen state tipped wages now function as a retention liability more than a cost advantage."}, {"headline": "Line Cook pay stability masks a widening BOH staffing risk.", "body": "Metro Line Cook pay held steady at $35,360, trailing the $37,421 national median, even as BLS projects 12% cook employment growth nationally through 2035 versus 2% for servers. Flat local pay against rising structural demand for cooks may suggest compensation benchmarking is lagging the occupation's true market tightness."}], "local_conditions": "Marathon County's unemployment rate held at 3.0% in August 2026, keeping the Wausau metro among Wisconsin's tightest labor pools even as statewide job creation stalls and manufacturing sheds positions. Wisconsin's frozen $7.25 minimum and $2.33 tipped wage, unchanged since 2009, increasingly conflict with national tipped-wage deregulation and a 4.1% national wage growth rate that continues to outpace Wisconsin's own earnings gains.", "implications": "Metro restaurant operators face a structural staffing constraint rooted in demographics: a 3.0% county unemployment rate and a declining, aging labor force mean fewer available workers even as Leisure & Hospitality employment grows roughly 3% statewide. DOL's withdrawal of the 80/20 tipped-wage rule gives operators room to reduce side-work wage exposure, but with 75% of Wisconsin restaurant employees leaving within a year, the savings may be offset by compounding recruitment and training costs. Consider evaluating whether reinvesting 80/20 savings into back-of-house retention incentives, where cook roles face steeper national demand growth than server roles, protects labor cost as a share of revenue better than banking the savings outright.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Policy fragmentation", "body": "Federal 80/20 tipped-wage repeal applies differently depending on state and local ordinance, and Wisconsin has no state-level override. Watch whether Milwaukee-style local wage ordinances gain traction in other Wisconsin metros, which would reshape tipped-wage competitiveness relative to Wausau."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Marathon County's labor force is shrinking on demographic grounds tied to an aging population. Track whether Leisure & Hospitality's roughly 3% statewide job growth continues locally despite a declining working-age population, since any slowdown would tighten BOH hiring further."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Crew pay fell locally while national Crew pay held flat, a divergence worth monitoring over the next two pay cycles. If the gap widens further, expect increased reliance on signing incentives or schedule-flexibility offers, alongside base-wage increases, to close entry-level staffing gaps."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Wisconsin's -5.1% year-over-year real wage decline, the steepest of any state, sits against a backdrop of elevated restaurant labor-cost pressure, with 33% of operators reporting 6-14% labor cost increases. Watch Q4 operator surveys for whether labor-cost-to-revenue ratios stabilize or continue climbing into the winter season."}], "roles": [{"role": "Assistant Restaurant Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 40820.0, "metro_p50": 50960.0, "metro_p75": 50960.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 39211.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Catering Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 38115.5, "metro_p50": 50416.0, "metro_p75": 55284.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 50076.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Crew", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26000.0, "metro_p50": 28844.8, "metro_p75": 31200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 30066.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Line Cook", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 37611.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 37421.4, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Restaurant Manager/General Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 50960.0, "metro_p50": 56364.0, "metro_p75": 75000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 59724.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Server", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24886.0, "metro_p50": 31200.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 35024.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Shift Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29942.0, "metro_p50": 34320.0, "metro_p75": 35880.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33024.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [{"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics / DWD", "source_url": null, "statement": "Marathon County unemployment rate at 3.0% in August 2026"}, {"source_name": "Wisconsin Dept. of Workforce Development", "source_url": null, "statement": "Wisconsin minimum wage frozen at $7.25 since 2009"}, {"source_name": "U.S. Department of Labor", "source_url": null, "statement": "DOL withdrew federal 80/20 tipped-wage rule in October 2026"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics / National Restaurant Association", "source_url": null, "statement": "Restaurant turnover near 80%, cooks projected to grow 12% vs 2% for servers"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Wisconsin posted steepest real wage decline of any state at -5.1%"}, {"source_name": "National Restaurant Association", "source_url": null, "statement": "33% of restaurant operators report labor costs rising 6-14%"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "wausau-wi-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.html", "pdf": "wausau-wi-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:32:13.654623+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/wausau-wi-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/wausau-wi-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.pdf"}