{"schema_version": 1, "id": "wausau-wi-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 526, "label": "Wausau, WI MSA", "slug": "wausau-wi-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "restaurant_industry", "slug": "restaurant-industry", "label": "Restaurant Industry"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:37:04.222178+00:00", "headline": "Wausau pay softens even as workforce keeps shrinking.", "headline_summary": "Server pay fell to $29,835 and Restaurant Manager/GM pay dropped to $56,364 even as Marathon County lost 1,116 jobs year-over-year with unemployment still under 3%.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Marathon County unemployment", "value": "2.7%", "context": "Dec 2025, vs 4.1% national"}, {"label": "County employment change", "value": "-1,116 jobs", "context": "Q2 2025 to Q2 2026 YoY"}, {"label": "National restaurant job growth", "value": "10,800 added", "context": "September, down from 33,800 in August"}, {"label": "Accommodation/food service openings", "value": "673,000", "context": "Down from 916,000 in January 2026"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Front-of-house pay is cooling faster than back-of-house.", "body": "Server and Crew advertised pay both moved down this month (moderate magnitude) while Line Cook held stable at $36,223. Narrowing FOH softness against steady BOH demand may signal operators are prioritizing kitchen retention over dining-room staffing as the margin lever."}, {"headline": "County job losses mask a tighter, not looser, labor pool.", "body": "Marathon County shed 1,116 jobs year-over-year even as unemployment stayed under 3%, consistent with workers aging out of the labor force rather than entering unemployment. Replacing turnover in this environment likely takes longer and costs more than headline unemployment suggests."}, {"headline": "Management pay is drifting down while frontline roles hold.", "body": "Restaurant Manager/GM advertised pay fell (moderate) locally to $56,364 and nationally to $59,618, while Shift Manager held stable at $34,320. Compressing management-to-shift-lead pay gaps may complicate promotion pipelines if the spread narrows further."}, {"headline": "County's own wage study signals local benchmarking pressure is rising.", "body": "Marathon County's board directed staff to study market wages and benefits after acknowledging staffing competitiveness concerns. A public employer actively benchmarking against private-sector pay is a signal that restaurant operators should expect added wage pressure from a historically lower-paying competitor for entry-level labor."}], "local_conditions": "Marathon County's labor market remains structurally tight, with unemployment holding under 3% even as covered employment fell by 1,116 jobs between Q2 2025 and Q2 2026, pointing to an aging, slow-growing workforce rather than easing demand. Statewide, Wisconsin's $7.25 minimum wage and $2.33 tipped floor have sat unchanged since 2009, leaving restaurant wage structures to be set entirely by local competition rather than policy, even as the county board now commissions a market study on wages amid budget pressure.", "implications": "Flat statutory wage floors mean Wausau operators compete purely on advertised pay and scheduling flexibility, not compliance-driven increases \u2014 but local declines in Server ($29,835, down/moderate) and Crew ($28,218, down/moderate) advertised pay suggest some easing in front-of-house competition even as the underlying labor pool keeps shrinking. Softening postings should not be read as sustained slack: Marathon County's demographic contraction means any rebound in dining demand will hit a smaller available workforce than a year ago. Consider reviewing FOH pay positioning now, while advertised rates are soft, rather than waiting for a seasonal demand spike to force reactive increases.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Worth watching", "body": "National restaurant job growth slowed sharply from 33,800 in August to 10,800 in September, alongside a drop in accommodation/food service openings from 916,000 to 673,000 since January. Watch whether this national cooling reaches Wausau's already-tight pool or whether local scarcity keeps advertised pay firmer than national trends."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Marathon County's 2026 budget assumes reduced shared-revenue growth and is actively studying competitive wages and benefits for public roles. If the county moves on pay, expect spillover pressure on entry-level restaurant wages competing for the same labor pool."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Smaller-than-usual seasonal pullback as students returned to school nationally suggests candidate pools may stay tighter into Q4 than prior years. Monitor whether Wausau's seasonal FOH staffing follows this national pattern given the metro's already constrained labor supply."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Declining local advertised pay for Server, Crew, and Manager/GM roles runs counter to the county's structural labor shortage narrative. If these declines persist through Q4, it may reflect genuine demand softening rather than cyclical noise \u2014 worth distinguishing before resetting pay bands downward."}], "roles": [{"role": "Assistant Restaurant Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36609.0, "metro_p50": 45546.4, "metro_p75": 50960.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39000.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Catering Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 37738.0, "metro_p50": 50414.2, "metro_p75": 56015.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 50960.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Crew", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26000.0, "metro_p50": 28218.0, "metro_p75": 30160.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 29839.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Line Cook", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31058.0, "metro_p50": 36223.4, "metro_p75": 38480.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 36826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Restaurant Manager/General Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 50960.0, "metro_p50": 56364.0, "metro_p75": 68125.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 59618.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Server", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24886.0, "metro_p50": 29835.0, "metro_p75": 34749.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 35012.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Shift Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29942.0, "metro_p50": 34320.0, "metro_p75": 36400.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 32731.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "wausau-wi-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.html", "pdf": "wausau-wi-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T14:37:48.443923+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/wausau-wi-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/wausau-wi-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.pdf"}