Waterloo labor force shrinks as county unemployment outpaces the state.
4.6%
Black Hawk County unemployment
vs 3.2% Iowa statewide
~87,200
Metro civilian labor force
down from 90,300 in Sept 2025
~15,775 jobs
Metro largest employment sector
Manufacturing, largest supersector
3.2%
Iowa statewide unemployment
Steady 4th consecutive month
This Month's Takeaways
01
Black Hawk County unemployment diverges sharply from the state trend.
County unemployment sits at 4.6% against Iowa's steady 3.2%, a gap wide enough to suggest metro-specific softness rather than a statewide pattern. Press and policy audiences asking whether the metro is tracking the state's resilience should note it currently is not.
02
Manufacturing's wage story is weaker locally than nationally.
Manufacturing Production Worker advertised pay is down significantly in the metro while holding stable nationally, even as the sector remains the area's single largest employment base near 15,775 jobs. That divergence is consistent with national data showing manufacturing as one of the few sectors adding jobs, suggesting volume may be holding even as per-worker pay softens locally.
03
Healthcare and skilled trades are the metro's clear bright spots.
Registered Nurse and HVAC Technician advertised pay both moved up significantly, outperforming their national counterparts — a local signal that tracks Iowa's statewide pattern of healthcare and construction as the only consistently growing sectors. Commerce leaders evaluating where local spending power is concentrating should watch these two categories closely.
04
Shrinking labor force, not just job losses, is the real metro story.
Civilian labor force fell from 90,300 to roughly 87,200 over the past several months, a contraction pattern that echoes Iowa's statewide retirement-driven workforce decline. A shrinking labor pool constrains the metro's capacity to support new investment even where unemployment appears moderate.
Local Economic Conditions
Waterloo-Cedar Falls labor force has contracted meaningfully, from 90,300 in September 2025 to roughly 87,200 by early 2026, while manufacturing remains the metro's largest employment base at approximately 15,775 jobs even as several advertised manufacturing and trades roles show significant metro-level pay softening. Black Hawk County's 4.6% unemployment rate continues to run above the metro core's 3.6-3.9% range and well above Iowa's statewide 3.2%, suggesting the metro's labor market is cooling faster than the state as a whole even as sectors like healthcare and skilled trades show localized wage strength.
Open Threads in the Data
A metro where labor force is shrinking but unemployment is rising simultaneously points to demand softness rather than a tight-labor story — manufacturing and logistics pay (Manufacturing Production Worker, Delivery Driver, Electrician all down significantly) is compressing even as healthcare (Registered Nurse up significantly) and skilled trades (HVAC up significantly) pull away, a bifurcation that mirrors the national white-collar/blue-collar split. Commerce leaders weighing local expansion or investment decisions should treat this as a mixed-signal environment: capacity exists in the labor pool, but divergent sector performance means due diligence should be sector-specific rather than metro-wide. Current conditions suggest reviewing which sectors are actually absorbing labor-force exits versus which are shedding capacity before treating county-level unemployment as a single number.
Advertised Pay Indicators · WageScape Benchmark 25 Jobs
Job postings data for the Waterloo-Cedar Falls, IA MSA metro — median advertised pay, its recent trend, and the number of active postings behind each figure. Jobs are grouped for readability and are not the same as the 10 sector classifications on the next page. For additional job detail contact WageScape.
Retail Trade
| Retail Sales Associate |
$28,156 |
↓ Moderate decline |
688 |
| Retail Cashier |
$28,897 |
→ Stable |
243 |
Transportation & Warehousing
| Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate |
$46,956 |
→ Stable |
188 |
| CDL Truck Driver |
$80,000 |
↑ Moderate increase |
1,888 |
| Delivery Driver |
$31,332 |
↓ Significant decline |
667 |
| Warehouse Manager |
$60,000 |
→ Stable |
19 |
Construction
| Construction Laborer |
$42,674 |
↓ Moderate decline |
51 |
Construction/Skilled Trades
| Electrician |
$68,547 |
↓ Moderate decline |
71 |
| HVAC Technician |
$80,288 |
↑ Significant increase |
24 |
Manufacturing
| Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler |
$37,004 |
↓ Significant decline |
72 |
Cross-Sector
| Customer Service Representative |
$38,315 |
↑ Moderate increase |
159 |
| Operations Manager |
— |
Limited local postings |
— |
Leisure & Hospitality
| Food Service Worker |
$33,072 |
→ Stable |
65 |
Healthcare
| Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide |
$38,219 |
↓ Significant decline |
561 |
| Registered Nurse |
$109,928 |
↑ Significant increase |
2,299 |
Admin/Office Support
| Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk |
$40,000 |
↑ Moderate increase |
101 |
Information/Technology
| Software Engineer |
$120,476 |
↑ Significant increase |
60 |
| Data Engineer |
$107,689 |
↑ Significant increase |
61 |
Professional & Business Services
| Accountant |
$75,000 |
→ Stable |
67 |
| HR Generalist/Manager |
$53,356 |
↓ Significant decline |
13 |
| Marketing Specialist |
$65,257 |
↑ Significant increase |
347 |
| Business Analyst |
$91,978 |
↑ Moderate increase |
938 |
Finance & Insurance
| Financial Analyst |
$74,822 |
↑ Moderate increase |
16 |
Government/Education
| Elementary/Secondary School Teacher |
$51,137 |
↑ Moderate increase |
458 |
Cross-Sector Sales
| Account Manager |
$71,657 |
↓ Moderate decline |
87 |
Industry Snapshot · Waterloo-Cedar Falls, IA MSA
Advertised pay and job-posting trends across the whole metro economy, rolled up by employer industry — not just the bellwether roles above.
| Sector |
Median Pay Change |
Job Postings Change |
| Construction |
→ 0.0% |
↑ +93.5% |
| Manufacturing |
↑ +14.0% |
↑ +195.1% |
| Retail Trade |
↑ +4.7% |
↑ +103.4% |
| Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities |
↓ −25.9% |
↑ +221.1% |
| Information |
↓ −23.5% |
↑ +31.8% |
| Financial Activities |
↓ −4.7% |
↑ +119.3% |
| Professional & Business Services |
↑ +27.7% |
↑ +134.3% |
| Education & Health Services |
↑ +32.4% |
↑ +156.7% |
| Leisure & Hospitality |
↓ −7.4% |
↑ +40.6% |
| Government |
↑ +74.3% |
↑ +409.2% |
Looking Ahead · Next 30–60 Days
Data release watch
BLS September 2026 metro-level employment data releases in October; the current labor-force contraction trend (90.3K to 87.2K) is based on data through early 2026 and warrants confirmation once the new release lands.
Emerging pressure point
Black Hawk County's 4.6% unemployment rate, well above both the metro core and state figures, bears watching for whether it is a lagging artifact or an early signal of broader metro softening.
Worth watching
Statewide manufacturing added 1,300 jobs in August even as local manufacturing wages softened; watch whether Waterloo-Cedar Falls, as Iowa's largest manufacturing employment base, participates in that statewide gain or continues to diverge.
Policy signal
Iowa's $2.1 billion UI trust balance is enabling the lowest employer tax rates in 2027 statewide — a bare fact relevant to commerce leaders' cost planning regardless of metro-level employment trends.
Sources & Methodology
Pay and hiring data provided by WageScape. See every source cited in this report, with links →
Advertised pay reflects the pay ranges employers publish in active job postings in this metro, not survey or payroll data. Pay trends compare the current period with the prior period for the same metro and role. Sector figures group postings by the employer's industry classification; sectors with limited classified postings are marked as such rather than estimated. This briefing is independent of, and complements, official statistics from the BLS and state labor market information offices.
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