{"schema_version": 1, "id": "washington-arlington-alexandria-dc-va-md-wv-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 372, "label": "Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV MSA", "slug": "washington-arlington-alexandria-dc-va-md-wv-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:44:55.609140+00:00", "headline": "DC region's low jobless rate hides a shrinking job base.", "headline_summary": "Washington-Arlington-Alexandria's unemployment rate sits at a tight 4.0%, yet the metro lost 103,900 jobs over the year to January 2026 \u2014 a divergence that puts federal contractor losses, not consumer demand, at the center of the region's economic story.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Metro unemployment rate", "value": "4.0%", "context": "July 2026, below 4.2% U.S. rate"}, {"label": "Metro job losses, Jan 2025-Jan 2026", "value": "-103,900 (-3.1%)", "context": "Despite low headline unemployment rate"}, {"label": "Maryland labor force participation", "value": "63.7%", "context": "10-year low, down 0.8 pts over 12 months"}, {"label": "Federal contractor sector losses (MD)", "value": "-11,500 jobs", "context": "Professional/scientific/technical svcs since Jan 2025"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Metro's 4.0% jobless rate masks a 3.1% employment contraction.", "body": "Washington-Arlington-Alexandria lost 103,900 jobs between January 2025 and January 2026 even as the unemployment rate stayed historically low, a divergence consistent with displaced federal workers and contractors exiting the labor force rather than counting as unemployed. Commerce leaders citing the unemployment rate alone risk overstating the metro's economic health."}, {"headline": "Construction and health care are the region's only clear growth sectors.", "body": "Construction employment is up roughly 2% and health care/social assistance up 0.5%, while most other major industries in the metro are contracting. This narrow breadth suggests momentum is sector-specific rather than metro-wide, a distinction that matters for commercial investment and site-selection narratives."}, {"headline": "Maryland's federal contractor losses are a regional, not just state, story.", "body": "Professional, scientific, and technical services jobs \u2014 the category covering most federal contracting work \u2014 are down 11,500 since January 2025 statewide, a trend that bleeds directly into DC and Northern Virginia given the integrated regional labor market. Prince George's and Montgomery County commerce leaders face this exposure even though the federal cuts originate in Washington."}, {"headline": "Party-committee layoffs are a small but telling September signal.", "body": "WARN filings from the Democratic Senatorial and Congressional Campaign Committees (111 and 207 workers respectively) are modest in scale but reflect how directly this metro's private-sector-adjacent employment remains tethered to federal political and governmental activity. Few other U.S. metros would register this category of filing as locally material."}], "local_conditions": "Washington-Arlington-Alexandria employment data show federal workforce contraction continuing to shape the regional economy, with the metro having shed 103,900 jobs over the year to January 2026 even as the local unemployment rate held at a comparatively tight 4.0% in July. Narrow bright spots in construction (+2%) and health care and social assistance (+0.5%) contrast with continued softness in professional and business services tied to federal contractor losses, while the DC minimum wage rise to $18.40 on July 1 and ongoing WARN filings \u2014 including 318 combined layoffs from national party committees in September \u2014 add fresh texture to an otherwise contraction-dominated picture.", "implications": "Federal contraction remains the defining variable for commerce leaders assessing expansion timing in this metro \u2014 the labor market is tight by headline rate but structurally uneven, meaning foot traffic, consumer spending, and commercial leasing decisions should be calibrated sector by sector rather than against the regional unemployment figure alone. Construction and health care's resilience suggest pockets of genuine momentum worth monitoring, while professional services softness tied to federal contracting cuts signals continued caution for office-dependent commercial corridors. Current conditions suggest local economic development and chamber leaders track sector-level employment data alongside headline unemployment before characterizing the metro's trajectory in public materials or investment pitches.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Maryland's labor force participation rate fell to a 10-year low of 63.7% in August, down 0.8 points over twelve months. Watch whether this stabilizes or continues declining, since sustained participation erosion limits the regional labor supply available to support business expansion regardless of posted wage levels."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Of WARN-affected workers across DC, Maryland, and Virginia through early July, 81.9% fell within the Baltimore or Washington MSAs, with 10,442 affected employees in this metro alone. Track whether this concentration widens as federal-adjacent layoffs continue through the fall."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "National wage growth has slipped to 3.0% annually against 3.4% inflation, the first sustained gap since 2021. If this pattern holds locally, consumer purchasing power softening could show up in retail and hospitality activity across the metro's commercial corridors."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Nonfarm payrolls nationally rose just 29,000 in September with prior months revised down 60,000 combined. A continued national deceleration would likely compound, rather than offset, this metro's federal-driven contraction over the next two reporting cycles."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29843.0, "metro_p50": 35646.0, "metro_p75": 38480.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29026.0, "metro_p50": 33800.0, "metro_p75": 35360.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33744.0, "metro_p50": 39249.0, "metro_p75": 41814.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59361.0, "metro_p50": 80600.0, "metro_p75": 90000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32570.0, "metro_p50": 36289.0, "metro_p75": 40559.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35572.0, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62400.0, "metro_p50": 78000.0, "metro_p75": 85657.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33666.0, "metro_p50": 37929.0, "metro_p75": 43047.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35360.0, "metro_p50": 41608.0, "metro_p75": 45965.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31915.0, "metro_p50": 36400.0, "metro_p75": 39000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37043.5, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 44720.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 38712.0, "metro_p50": 49764.0, "metro_p75": 57200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 66546.5, "metro_p50": 80000.0, "metro_p75": 84829.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 88649.0, "metro_p50": 106506.6, "metro_p75": 114765.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 118500.0, "metro_p50": 145235.2, "metro_p75": 162500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 107600.75, "metro_p50": 145000.0, "metro_p75": 159605.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 64480.0, "metro_p50": 80000.0, "metro_p75": 90000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 84173.5, "metro_p50": 105000.0, "metro_p75": 114400.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 61899.0, "metro_p50": 79383.0, "metro_p75": 88868.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 50101.0, "metro_p50": 69923.0, "metro_p75": 80000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 76000.0, "metro_p50": 98610.0, "metro_p75": 104657.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 40275.0, "metro_p50": 61003.2, "metro_p75": 70272.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 67500.0, "metro_p50": 97500.0, "metro_p75": 117578.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 50960.0, "metro_p50": 50960.0, "metro_p75": 50960.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 90155.0, "metro_p50": 111196.8, "metro_p75": 123188.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 79885.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 120823.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 43175.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 60000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 132981.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 115365.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 117024.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 70272.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 39520.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 73787.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "washington-arlington-alexandria-dc-va-md-wv-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "washington-arlington-alexandria-dc-va-md-wv-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "washington-arlington-alexandria-dc-va-md-wv-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T14:37:44.988053+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/washington-arlington-alexandria-dc-va-md-wv-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/washington-arlington-alexandria-dc-va-md-wv-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}