{"schema_version": 1, "id": "warner-robins-ga-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 518, "label": "Warner Robins, GA MSA", "slug": "warner-robins-ga-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "restaurant_industry", "slug": "restaurant-industry", "label": "Restaurant Industry"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:36:52.133711+00:00", "headline": "Warner Robins wages climb 4.3% \u2014 restaurant management pay falls instead.", "headline_summary": "Metro weekly wages rose 4.3% amid Houston County's 2.9% unemployment rate, yet Restaurant Manager/GM advertised pay fell significantly to $50,445, well below the $59,618 national median.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Houston County unemployment", "value": "2.9%", "context": "July 2026, vs 3.2% Georgia, 4.1% national"}, {"label": "MSA weekly wage growth", "value": "4.3%", "context": "Q1 2026 YoY, outpacing 1.6% employment decline"}, {"label": "GM/Restaurant Manager advertised pay", "value": "$50,445", "context": "Down significant vs $59,618 national median"}, {"label": "MSA leisure/hospitality job growth", "value": "+3.8%", "context": "YoY, Q1 2026, vs -7.3% government employment"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Management pay is falling while metro wages climb broadly.", "body": "Restaurant Manager/GM advertised pay dropped significantly to $50,445 locally, well under the $59,618 national median, even as overall MSA weekly wages rose 4.3%. That gap suggests restaurant operators risk losing management talent to better-paying sectors absorbing workers displaced from government and manufacturing contraction."}, {"headline": "Government contraction is quietly feeding the hospitality labor pool.", "body": "Warner Robins MSA government employment fell 7.3% year over year while leisure/hospitality grew 3.8%, consistent with displaced defense-adjacent and administrative workers shifting into service roles. This may ease FOH and BOH entry-level sourcing even as management-tier competition intensifies."}, {"headline": "Sub-3% unemployment leaves little room for turnover complacency.", "body": "Houston County's 2.9% rate and record-low statewide joblessness at 3.2% mean candidate pools remain structurally thin despite national signs of restaurant hiring stabilization. Georgia's stable tipped-wage structure offers no policy relief, so retention investment carries more weight than wage floor changes."}, {"headline": "Shift Manager pay softness may signal a flattening management ladder.", "body": "Shift Manager advertised pay declined moderately to $28,787, narrowing the gap with hourly crew and server roles near $26,000-$29,000. Compressed differentials between supervisory and frontline pay can undercut the incentive to advance into management precisely when managerial turnover is most costly to replace."}], "local_conditions": "Houston County's 2.9% July unemployment rate and sub-3% MSA-level readings continue to tighten the labor pool just as Robins AFB-anchored government employment contracts 7.3% year over year, pushing displaced workers toward adjacent sectors including leisure/hospitality, which grew 3.8%. Weekly wages across the Warner Robins MSA rose 4.3% even as total employment slipped 1.6%, signaling employers are paying more to retain a shrinking available workforce rather than expanding headcount.", "implications": "Metro restaurant pay data shows General Manager and Shift Manager advertised rates declining (down significant and moderate, respectively) even as broader MSA wages climb 4.3% \u2014 a divergence suggesting restaurant operators are not keeping pace with the tightening local labor market relative to other industries competing for the same displaced government and manufacturing workers. With Georgia's $2.13 tipped cash wage unchanged and BOH roles anchored at $7.25 federal minimum, compression pressure will land hardest on management retention rather than entry-level hiring. Consider reviewing management-tier pay against the metro's 4.3% wage growth trend rather than against national restaurant benchmarks alone, since local competition is increasingly cross-industry, not just cross-restaurant.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Continued government and manufacturing employment contraction in the MSA could accelerate the flow of displaced workers into hospitality, but only if advertised pay for management roles stabilizes rather than keeps declining. Watch whether GM and Shift Manager advertised rates find a floor over the next two reporting cycles."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Georgia's tipped minimum wage remains frozen at $2.13 with no legislative movement, unlike Florida's active $1 annual step increases. Absent state action, Warner Robins operators retain a cost advantage over Florida-based competitors recruiting regional management talent."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "National restaurant job openings have fallen from 916,000 to 673,000 since January, suggesting the hiring frenzy is cooling. If that national stabilization reaches the Warner Robins metro, operators may gain negotiating room on advertised pay for crew and server roles currently held stable."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Houston County's labor force has not yet posted a full MSA-level reading past April 2026; the next BLS metro release will show whether July's 2.9% county rate holds at the broader MSA level. A further tightening would sharpen the case for proactive management retention spend ahead of the holiday staffing season."}], "roles": [{"role": "Assistant Restaurant Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27025.0, "metro_p50": 36902.0, "metro_p75": 40000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39000.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Catering Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 38555.5, "metro_p50": 51300.8, "metro_p75": 55546.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 50960.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Crew", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 23536.0, "metro_p50": 26000.0, "metro_p75": 26204.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 29839.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Line Cook", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26186.75, "metro_p50": 28915.8, "metro_p75": 31200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 36826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Restaurant Manager/General Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 43680.0, "metro_p50": 50445.0, "metro_p75": 57000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 59618.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Server", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25494.0, "metro_p50": 29123.0, "metro_p75": 32550.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 35012.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Shift Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24961.0, "metro_p50": 28787.0, "metro_p75": 29120.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 32731.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "warner-robins-ga-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.html", "pdf": "warner-robins-ga-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T14:37:43.426079+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/warner-robins-ga-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/warner-robins-ga-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.pdf"}