{"schema_version": 1, "id": "warner-robins-ga-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 518, "label": "Warner Robins, GA MSA", "slug": "warner-robins-ga-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T08:12:20.862105+00:00", "headline": "Warner Robins' low jobless rate hides a shrinking payroll.", "headline_summary": "Warner Robins metro unemployment sits at 3.2% even as nonfarm employment contracted 2.5% year-over-year, with government jobs \u2014 a third of the local workforce \u2014 down 6.6%.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Metro unemployment rate", "value": "3.2%", "context": "Aug. 2026, vs 4.1% national"}, {"label": "Nonfarm employment change", "value": "-2.5%", "context": "Year-over-year, metro"}, {"label": "Government employment change", "value": "-6.6%", "context": "Metro govt. is 33.2% of jobs vs 10.3% US"}, {"label": "Retail trade employment change", "value": "+3.2%", "context": "Year-over-year, metro, contrasts govt. decline"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Tight unemployment is masking a shrinking job base.", "body": "Nonfarm employment fell 2.5% year-over-year even as unemployment held at 3.2%, a pattern consistent with labor force contraction. Economic development messaging built solely on the unemployment rate risks overstating current momentum."}, {"headline": "Government's retreat is the metro's defining labor story.", "body": "Government employment dropped 6.6% year-over-year in a metro where it represents a third of all jobs, more than triple the national government share. Given Robins AFB's roughly 22,000-worker anchor role, any further federal employment shifts carry outsized local weight."}, {"headline": "Retail and logistics-adjacent pay show the clearest upward signal.", "body": "Retail trade employment grew 3.2% while warehouse/fulfillment advertised pay rose to $35,078, a significant increase, alongside gains in construction labor and administrative pay. These pockets of strength suggest consumer-facing and distribution activity are offsetting softness elsewhere."}, {"headline": "Administrative and professional pay gains outpace the metro's job count.", "body": "Administrative assistant pay rose to $39,393 and accountant pay to $70,463, both significant local increases, even as overall nonfarm employment contracted. Wage movement concentrated in office and professional functions points to selective demand."}], "local_conditions": "Warner Robins metro unemployment held near 3.2% in August, among the tightest readings in Georgia, even as total nonfarm employment contracted 2.5% year-over-year \u2014 a divergence consistent with a labor force shrinking faster than job losses. Government employment, which accounts for 33.2% of the metro's job base against 10.3% nationally, fell 6.6% over the year while retail trade gained 3.2%, pointing to a local economy still anchored by Robins Air Force Base but recalibrating its public-private balance.", "implications": "Government contraction alongside retail expansion signals a local business climate where public-sector stability can no longer be assumed as the sole growth engine, a relevant data point for economic development planning and capital investment timing. Advertised pay gains in warehouse/fulfillment (+significant), construction labor (+significant), and administrative roles (+significant) suggest selective wage pressure in logistics-adjacent and office functions even as overall payrolls shrink. Commerce leaders evaluating expansion or relocation incentives should weigh the metro's sub-4% unemployment against the nonfarm contraction to avoid reading tight unemployment alone as evidence of broad-based growth.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Federal budget and defense appropriations decisions over the next 60 days bear direct watching given Robins AFB's roughly 22,000-worker footprint and the metro's 6.6% year-over-year government job decline. Any signal on base funding or mission realignment will move the local economy more than any other single factor."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Retail trade's 3.2% employment gain and rising warehouse/fulfillment pay suggest continued consumer and logistics activity; watch whether job ads in these categories, a signal of hiring demand where one ad often covers several openings, continue trending upward into the holiday season."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Georgia's record statewide labor force growth and 50-year-low initial claims have not yet shown up as parallel momentum in Warner Robins' nonfarm payroll figures. Commerce leaders should watch whether the metro begins tracking the state's trajectory or continues to diverge."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "National wage growth trailing CPI by roughly two percentage points raises the question of local consumer spending capacity, particularly relevant given Warner Robins' retail and food-service concentration. Watch Q4 retail sales and foot-traffic data alongside the next wage release for signs of softening household demand."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 21966.0, "metro_p50": 27183.8, "metro_p75": 30791.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 21717.0, "metro_p50": 24960.0, "metro_p75": 27390.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29706.0, "metro_p50": 35077.8, "metro_p75": 38206.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 61920.0, "metro_p50": 84500.0, "metro_p75": 93600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26290.75, "metro_p50": 30410.0, "metro_p75": 31887.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30160.0, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 35360.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 61163.5, "metro_p50": 68038.8, "metro_p75": 70614.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34696.0, "metro_p50": 39062.0, "metro_p75": 75613.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28577.0, "metro_p50": 33716.8, "metro_p75": 40270.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27172.0, "metro_p50": 41080.0, "metro_p75": 41080.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29120.0, "metro_p50": 33215.0, "metro_p75": 34100.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31438.25, "metro_p50": 39393.0, "metro_p75": 42837.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 51240.5, "metro_p50": 62365.6, "metro_p75": 62400.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 85244.0, "metro_p50": 101852.4, "metro_p75": 108160.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 94372.5, "metro_p50": 122275.0, "metro_p75": 135520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 101182.0, "metro_p50": 135000.0, "metro_p75": 147136.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 63143.75, "metro_p50": 70463.0, "metro_p75": 75625.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 66934.75, "metro_p50": 90889.0, "metro_p75": 97590.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 54362.5, "metro_p50": 66731.0, "metro_p75": 79109.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 45966.0, "metro_p50": 58500.0, "metro_p75": 70334.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 67500.0, "metro_p50": 84405.4, "metro_p75": 92219.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25991.25, "metro_p50": 39940.0, "metro_p75": 44312.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 69499.0, "metro_p50": 87500.0, "metro_p75": 90000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 57500.0, "metro_p50": 82500.0, "metro_p75": 95500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 80000.0, "metro_p50": 96514.8, "metro_p75": 107358.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 41600.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 96244.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 33637.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 64938.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 110260.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 43680.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 85912.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 75970.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 27024.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 67687.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics (LAUS)", "source_url": null, "statement": "Warner Robins MSA unemployment rate at 3.2% in August 2026"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Nonfarm employment contracting 2.5% year-over-year in Warner Robins MSA"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics / Georgia Department of Labor", "source_url": null, "statement": "Government comprises 33.2% of Warner Robins metro employment vs 10.3% nationally"}, {"source_name": "Georgia Department of Labor / Regional workforce data", "source_url": null, "statement": "Robins AFB and Warner Robins Air Logistics Complex employ roughly 22,000"}, {"source_name": "Georgia Department of Labor", "source_url": null, "statement": "Georgia labor force and employment hit record highs for ninth consecutive month"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "National wage growth trailing CPI inflation by roughly two points"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "warner-robins-ga-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "warner-robins-ga-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "warner-robins-ga-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:32:06.649191+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/warner-robins-ga-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/warner-robins-ga-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}