{"schema_version": 1, "id": "waco-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 364, "label": "Waco, TX MSA", "slug": "waco-tx-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T08:11:32.967489+00:00", "headline": "Waco jobless rate falls as employment base shrinks.", "headline_summary": "Waco's unemployment rate dropped to 4.0% in September even as total employment fell by 700 jobs and average weekly wages slipped $49 quarter-over-quarter, a split that complicates any simple reading of local economic strength.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Waco unemployment rate", "value": "4.0%", "context": "Down from 4.3% in August; below TX (4.4%) and US (4.1%)"}, {"label": "MSA total employment", "value": "142,500", "context": "Down 700 jobs month-over-month, September 2026"}, {"label": "Metro average weekly wage", "value": "$1,213", "context": "Up $19 y/y, down $49 vs. Q4 2025 (Q1 2026)"}, {"label": "Texas annual wage growth", "value": "4.5%", "context": "vs. Waco's near-flat $19 y/y wage gain"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Falling jobless rate and falling payrolls tell different stories.", "body": "Waco's unemployment rate dropped to 4.0% even as total employment fell by 700 jobs month-over-month, a combination that may suggest discouraged workers or retirees are exiting the labor force without moving into jobs. Local economic development messaging built solely on the headline rate risks overstating labor market tightness as a sign of strength."}, {"headline": "Wage growth in Waco is decelerating.", "body": "Average weekly wages rose just $19 year-over-year in Q1 2026 but fell $49 quarter-over-quarter, well behind the 4.5% statewide wage growth the Dallas Fed reported for Texas in August. That gap suggests Waco employers are not under the same wage pressure as the broader Texas labor market, a relevant data point for commerce leaders benchmarking local cost competitiveness."}, {"headline": "Healthcare and skilled trades carry the metro's wage momentum.", "body": "Registered Nurse pay (up, moderate) and Certified Nursing Assistant pay (up, significant) are rising locally even as Business Analyst, Operations Manager, and Warehouse Manager pay are falling significantly. Concentration of wage gains in healthcare and technical occupations, against broader flat-to-declining white-collar pay, points to sector-specific strength set against uneven conditions elsewhere in the metro."}, {"headline": "Manufacturing's local concentration is a structural asset worth tracking.", "body": "Manufacturing's 37.8% share of concentrated sub-sector employment, combined with Time Manufacturing/Versalift advertising more than 150 positions at the September hiring fair, signals the sector remains the metro's largest single source of hiring demand (job ads, a signal of hiring demand, with one ad often covering several openings). Texas-wide manufacturing resilience tied to energy and AI-linked construction investment gives Waco's industrial base a plausible tailwind if that statewide pattern holds locally."}], "local_conditions": "Waco's unemployment rate fell to 4.0% in September, down from 4.3% in August and below both the Texas (4.4%) and national (4.1%) rates, even as total MSA employment slipped by 700 jobs to 142,500. Average weekly wages in the metro reached $1,213 in the first quarter, up $19 year-over-year but down $49 from the prior quarter, a pattern consistent with a labor market that is tight on headcount while wage momentum cools.", "implications": "Falling unemployment alongside a shrinking employment base suggests labor-force exits are adding to labor-force absorption in tightening the local market \u2014 a dynamic that affects how commerce leaders should read business-expansion readiness in Waco relative to peer Texas metros. Softening advertised pay in several roles (Customer Service Representative, Operations Manager, Business Analyst) alongside strength in healthcare and skilled technical pay points to an uneven recovery concentrated in specific sectors. Current conditions suggest commerce and economic development leaders evaluate sector-specific capacity \u2014 particularly manufacturing and healthcare, where Waco's employment concentration and wage gains are most pronounced \u2014 before characterizing the metro's overall business climate as uniformly strong or weak.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Worth watching", "body": "September's 700-job employment decline alongside a falling unemployment rate warrants a second data point before drawing conclusions \u2014 watch whether October TWC figures confirm a labor-force exit pattern or reflect a one-month statistical blip."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "McLennan County's unemployment rate (4.8%) runs meaningfully above the MSA's blended 4.0% rate, suggesting county-level disparities within the metro. Commerce leaders evaluating site locations or workforce programs should track whether that gap widens or narrows in coming releases."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Average weekly wages fell $49 quarter-over-quarter even as the state posted record Q1 wages \u2014 a divergence worth confirming as a seasonal or reporting artifact once Q2/Q3 Workforce Solutions data publishes."}, {"category": "Expected", "body": "National wage-vs-CPI data shows real wages essentially flat to negative (median earnings up 1.5% against 3.5% CPI growth); local consumer spending power in Waco is likely tracking that national erosion given the metro's own modest wage gains, relevant to retail and hospitality sector forecasting."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22514.0, "metro_p50": 27069.0, "metro_p75": 32584.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22880.0, "metro_p50": 26334.0, "metro_p75": 27463.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 39624.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54813.0, "metro_p50": 76856.0, "metro_p75": 86320.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28760.0, "metro_p50": 30680.0, "metro_p75": 38643.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32474.5, "metro_p50": 40310.0, "metro_p75": 40565.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59454.0, "metro_p50": 68640.0, "metro_p75": 71345.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33078.0, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 37859.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30854.0, "metro_p50": 34374.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24635.0, "metro_p50": 29640.0, "metro_p75": 31356.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32453.25, "metro_p50": 40935.2, "metro_p75": 42592.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31230.0, "metro_p50": 37113.0, "metro_p75": 39902.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 52242.0, "metro_p50": 63672.2, "metro_p75": 66522.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 82287.0, "metro_p50": 98692.0, "metro_p75": 105915.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 112052.0, "metro_p50": 148050.2, "metro_p75": 163495.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 102800.5, "metro_p50": 142070.0, "metro_p75": 142070.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58640.0, "metro_p50": 73182.0, "metro_p75": 88163.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 67137.5, "metro_p50": 80333.0, "metro_p75": 84480.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 43368.5, "metro_p50": 58149.0, "metro_p75": 65620.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 46800.0, "metro_p50": 61150.0, "metro_p75": 72500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 70000.0, "metro_p50": 82583.0, "metro_p75": 98295.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34313.0, "metro_p50": 55996.0, "metro_p75": 59750.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 45184.75, "metro_p50": 72479.4, "metro_p75": 76807.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 48368.0, "metro_p50": 70872.6, "metro_p75": 85260.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 69205.0, "metro_p50": 75838.0, "metro_p75": 77663.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 60380.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 57500.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 38456.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 60667.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 59496.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 48367.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 58269.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 60320.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 29951.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 63179.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "Texas Workforce Commission", "source_url": null, "statement": "Waco MSA unemployment rate fell to 4.0% in September 2026"}, {"source_name": "Texas Workforce Commission", "source_url": null, "statement": "Waco MSA employment stood at 142,500, down 700 from prior month"}, {"source_name": "Workforce Solutions for the Heart of Texas", "source_url": null, "statement": "Regional average weekly wage was $1,213 in Q1 2026, up $19 y/y"}, {"source_name": "Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas", "source_url": null, "statement": "Texas year-over-year wage growth was 4.5% in August 2026"}, {"source_name": "KWTX", "source_url": null, "statement": "Time Manufacturing/Versalift advertised 150+ openings at fall hiring fair"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "National median weekly earnings rose 1.5% vs. 3.5% CPI growth, Q3 2026"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "waco-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "waco-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "waco-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:32:04.651197+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/waco-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/waco-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}