{"schema_version": 1, "id": "waco-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 364, "label": "Waco, TX MSA", "slug": "waco-tx-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:44:47.063559+00:00", "headline": "Waco wages slip as Texas growth accelerates elsewhere.", "headline_summary": "Waco's average weekly wage fell to $1,213 in the first quarter even as statewide Texas private wages rose 3.9% year-over-year, with local manufacturing down 5.8% while the state sector expands.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Waco unemployment rate", "value": "4.2%", "context": "vs 4.0% Texas, 4.2% national"}, {"label": "Waco avg weekly wage", "value": "$1,213", "context": "down $49 vs Q4 2025, despite +3.9% TX"}, {"label": "Waco manufacturing employment", "value": "-5.8% YoY", "context": "vs statewide manufacturing acceleration"}, {"label": "Waco annual job growth", "value": "0.8%", "context": "vs 1.1% Texas, below Dallas Fed 2.0% forecast"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Waco wages are moving opposite the state trend.", "body": "Texas private hourly earnings rose 3.9% year-over-year, but Waco's average weekly wage fell $49 quarter-over-quarter to $1,213. Local purchasing power and consumer spending capacity may be softening even as statewide figures suggest broad acceleration."}, {"headline": "Manufacturing's local slide outpaces the state's rebound.", "body": "Waco manufacturing fell 8.1% quarter-over-quarter and 5.8% year-over-year, while Texas manufacturing activity accelerated statewide in September with stronger production and new orders. Divergence this sharp suggests a local, not sector-wide, dynamic worth tracking for its effect on the metro's industrial tax base and supplier network."}, {"headline": "Healthcare concentration is doing the heavy lifting.", "body": "Education and Health Services alone accounts for 27% of Waco's total employment, and advertised pay for Registered Nurses and CNAs/Home Health Aides both rose significantly this month. A metro this reliant on one sector for stability carries limited cushion if healthcare demand or funding shifts."}, {"headline": "Flat headline numbers obscure a slower underlying trend.", "body": "Waco's 0.8% annual job growth and unchanged unemployment rate read as stability, but they sit well below both the Texas statewide pace (1.1%) and the Dallas Fed's upgraded 2.0% state forecast. Momentum language built on state or national data would overstate what is actually happening locally."}], "local_conditions": "Waco MSA unemployment held at 4.2% in September with nonfarm payrolls essentially flat, as the region's historically dominant Education and Health Services sector (27% of total employment) absorbs most net growth while Manufacturing continues to contract, down 5.8% year-over-year. Average weekly wages fell to $1,213 in the first quarter, down $49 quarter-over-quarter, a divergence from Texas's statewide private wage growth of 3.9% that points to Waco's industry mix, not statewide momentum, as the binding constraint on local pay growth.", "implications": "Flat payrolls paired with falling average weekly wages suggest Waco's expansion is running cooler than the Texas average, meaning commerce leaders evaluating local investment or expansion timing should weight metro-specific data over statewide headlines that currently overstate local momentum. Manufacturing's quarterly decline alongside healthcare's continued dominance signals a local economy increasingly dependent on a single sector for stability, a concentration risk worth factoring into any assessment of commercial diversification or civic planning. Consider evaluating local investment decisions against Waco-specific wage and employment trends rather than Texas-level aggregates, which currently mask softer local conditions.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Waco's manufacturing contraction (down 5.8% year-over-year) runs counter to Texas's statewide manufacturing acceleration in September. Whether this is a temporary metro-specific dip or a structural decline will shape how economic development leaders position industrial recruitment efforts over the next two quarters."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Average weekly wages dropped $49 quarter-over-quarter even as the state recorded accelerating wage growth. A second consecutive quarterly decline would suggest a local pattern distinct from Texas's broader wage story, relevant to any public commentary on metro cost-of-living or affordability."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "National wage growth has slipped to 3.0% against 3.4% inflation, the weakest real-wage picture since 2021. Whether that national squeeze shows up in Waco's already-softening wage data over the next reporting cycle is a signal worth tracking for consumer spending forecasts."}, {"category": "Expected", "body": "Texas WARN filings are down sharply year-over-year statewide (45% fewer affected workers), a stabilizing signal. Confirmation that Waco mirrors this low-layoff pattern, rather than diverging as it has on wages, would help clarify whether local softness is isolated to pay or extends to job security."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22676.0, "metro_p50": 27545.6, "metro_p75": 33092.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22880.0, "metro_p50": 26774.0, "metro_p75": 27463.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31014.0, "metro_p50": 36043.4, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54733.0, "metro_p50": 76759.2, "metro_p75": 87230.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28760.0, "metro_p50": 31469.0, "metro_p75": 38629.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32520.0, "metro_p50": 40560.0, "metro_p75": 40581.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58240.0, "metro_p50": 68640.0, "metro_p75": 71345.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32240.0, "metro_p50": 34330.0, "metro_p75": 37124.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30160.0, "metro_p50": 33280.0, "metro_p75": 36571.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24635.0, "metro_p50": 29755.0, "metro_p75": 31200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31996.75, "metro_p50": 41403.2, "metro_p75": 43651.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30080.0, "metro_p50": 36915.8, "metro_p75": 38783.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 48880.0, "metro_p50": 63639.0, "metro_p75": 66509.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 82108.0, "metro_p50": 98841.0, "metro_p75": 107978.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 104475.0, "metro_p50": 140113.2, "metro_p75": 158433.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 106866.0, "metro_p50": 142070.0, "metro_p75": 142070.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57500.0, "metro_p50": 73012.2, "metro_p75": 84143.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 67137.5, "metro_p50": 81358.4, "metro_p75": 85090.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 42564.0, "metro_p50": 57999.0, "metro_p75": 58149.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 46677.0, "metro_p50": 60734.0, "metro_p75": 71585.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 70000.0, "metro_p50": 83711.8, "metro_p75": 98390.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 38466.5, "metro_p50": 56640.0, "metro_p75": 59912.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 47319.5, "metro_p50": 72647.4, "metro_p75": 81769.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 48368.0, "metro_p50": 70236.8, "metro_p75": 81507.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 69205.0, "metro_p50": 75838.0, "metro_p75": 77663.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 57769.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 58815.5, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 38471.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 60671.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 57853.5, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 48232.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 59315.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 60168.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 29700.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 66682.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Waco MSA unemployment at 4.2%, nonfarm payrolls flat in September"}, {"source_name": "Workforce Solutions for the Heart of Texas", "source_url": null, "statement": "Education/Health Services 27% of Waco employment, manufacturing down 5.8% YoY"}, {"source_name": "Workforce Solutions for the Heart of Texas", "source_url": null, "statement": "Waco average weekly wage $1,213, down $49 quarter-over-quarter"}, {"source_name": "Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas", "source_url": null, "statement": "Texas private hourly earnings up 3.9% year-over-year"}, {"source_name": "Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas", "source_url": null, "statement": "Texas manufacturing activity accelerated in September statewide"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "National wage growth at 3.0% vs 3.4% inflation, weakest since 2021"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "waco-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "waco-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "waco-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T14:37:41.472781+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/waco-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/waco-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}