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Waco wages slip as Texas growth accelerates elsewhere.
4.2%
Waco unemployment rate
vs 4.0% Texas, 4.2% national
$1,213
Waco avg weekly wage
down $49 vs Q4 2025, despite +3.9% TX
-5.8% YoY
Waco manufacturing employment
vs statewide manufacturing acceleration
0.8%
Waco annual job growth
vs 1.1% Texas, below Dallas Fed 2.0% forecast
This Month's Takeaways
Waco wages are moving opposite the state trend.
Texas private hourly earnings rose 3.9% year-over-year, but Waco's average weekly wage fell $49 quarter-over-quarter to $1,213. Local purchasing power and consumer spending capacity may be softening even as statewide figures suggest broad acceleration.
Manufacturing's local slide outpaces the state's rebound.
Waco manufacturing fell 8.1% quarter-over-quarter and 5.8% year-over-year, while Texas manufacturing activity accelerated statewide in September with stronger production and new orders. Divergence this sharp suggests a local, not sector-wide, dynamic worth tracking for its effect on the metro's industrial tax base and supplier network.
Healthcare concentration is doing the heavy lifting.
Education and Health Services alone accounts for 27% of Waco's total employment, and advertised pay for Registered Nurses and CNAs/Home Health Aides both rose significantly this month. A metro this reliant on one sector for stability carries limited cushion if healthcare demand or funding shifts.
Flat headline numbers obscure a slower underlying trend.
Waco's 0.8% annual job growth and unchanged unemployment rate read as stability, but they sit well below both the Texas statewide pace (1.1%) and the Dallas Fed's upgraded 2.0% state forecast. Momentum language built on state or national data would overstate what is actually happening locally.
Local Economic Conditions
Waco MSA unemployment held at 4.2% in September with nonfarm payrolls essentially flat, as the region's historically dominant Education and Health Services sector (27% of total employment) absorbs most net growth while Manufacturing continues to contract, down 5.8% year-over-year. Average weekly wages fell to $1,213 in the first quarter, down $49 quarter-over-quarter, a divergence from Texas's statewide private wage growth of 3.9% that points to Waco's industry mix, not statewide momentum, as the binding constraint on local pay growth.
Open Threads in the Data
Flat payrolls paired with falling average weekly wages suggest Waco's expansion is running cooler than the Texas average, meaning commerce leaders evaluating local investment or expansion timing should weight metro-specific data over statewide headlines that currently overstate local momentum. Manufacturing's quarterly decline alongside healthcare's continued dominance signals a local economy increasingly dependent on a single sector for stability, a concentration risk worth factoring into any assessment of commercial diversification or civic planning. Consider evaluating local investment decisions against Waco-specific wage and employment trends rather than Texas-level aggregates, which currently mask softer local conditions.
