Labor Market Pulse

Waco, TX Metro Edition

Focus: HR

Waco wages soften as manufacturing retreats, healthcare holds the floor.

4.2%

Metro unemployment rate

vs 4.0% Texas, 4.1% national

$1,213

Metro average weekly wage

Down $49 from Q4 2025, up $19 YoY

-5.8% YoY

Manufacturing employment change

Vs Texas manufacturing wage growth of +4.8%

0.8%

Metro annual job growth

vs 1.1% Texas statewide growth

This Month's Takeaways

01

Manufacturing's wage story is quietly diverging from the rest of Texas.

Local manufacturing employment fell 5.8% year-over-year while statewide manufacturing wages rose 4.8%, the strongest pace since 2023. Waco employers retaining manufacturing talent may need to defend against out-of-metro recruiting pressure even as local headcount shrinks.

02

HR Business Partner pay gap with national rates looks unsustainable.

Metro median advertised pay of $66,998 sits nearly 20% below the national $83,766 figure, a gap unusually wide for a strategic HR role. Expect continued difficulty recruiting senior HRBP talent locally without closing this spread or recruiting remote.

03

Falling weekly wages mask a healthcare-driven floor.

Metro average weekly wages dropped $49 quarter-over-quarter, but Education and Health Services' dominant 27% employment share likely cushions broader wage decline. Compensation planning should separate healthcare-adjacent roles from the rest of the market rather than reading one blended wage trend.

04

Payroll Specialist pay is moving faster than the role typically warrants.

Local advertised pay for Payroll Specialist rose significantly to $56,289, outpacing the stable national trend. This may reflect compliance complexity or thin local supply rather than a durable demand shift — worth validating before resetting pay bands permanently.

Local Labor Conditions

Waco's unemployment rate held at 4.2% in September as nonfarm payrolls grew only 0.8% year-over-year, a pace well below the state's 1.1% annual gain and reflecting a metro still anchored by Education and Health Services, now 27% of total employment. Average weekly wages fell to $1,213 in Q1 2026, down $49 quarter-over-quarter as manufacturing contracted 8.1% in the same period, signaling that goods-producing wage pressure is easing even as healthcare-driven hiring keeps the broader labor market stable.

Leadership & Talent Implications

Soft wage growth alongside manufacturing's retreat suggests Waco employers face less urgency to chase pay aggressively outside healthcare and education, where demand remains structurally resilient. Current conditions suggest organizations should recalibrate compensation benchmarking by sector rather than applying a flat metro-wide adjustment, and consider reviewing retention spend specifically for manufacturing roles where declining demand may mask growing flight risk among remaining skilled workers.

Advertised Pay Indicators

Role	P25	Median	P75	Local Trend	National	Nat. Trend
Compensation Analyst	$72,099	$100,000	$112,500	↑ Moderate increase	$101,727	→ Stable
HR Business Partner	$47,390	$66,998	$71,687	↑ Significant increase	$83,766	↑ Significant increase
Benefits Manager	$85,665	$122,633	$133,280	↑ Moderate increase	$117,888	↑ Moderate increase
HRIS Analyst	—	—	—	— No data	$97,555	↑ Moderate increase
HR Coordinator	$37,684	$46,442	$47,314	→ Stable	$50,000	↑ Moderate increase
Recruiter	$40,225	$62,232	$67,600	→ Stable	$68,167	↑ Moderate increase
Payroll Specialist	$46,221	$56,289	$65,000	↑ Significant increase	$59,855	↑ Moderate increase

Some roles reflect state-level data where local metro sample size was insufficient.

Looking Ahead · Next 30–60 Days

Emerging pressure point

Manufacturing's 8.1% quarterly decline could accelerate if Texas transportation and logistics WARN activity (69 notices, 8,055 workers statewide) extends into Central Texas. Watch whether displaced manufacturing workers surface in the Waco candidate pool over the next quarter.

Worth watching

Texas staffing services payrolls grew an annualized 22%, well above the 3.8% national pace, suggesting employers statewide are substituting contingent labor for permanent hires. Waco HR leaders scaling teams should evaluate whether temp-to-perm strategies fit tightening local headcount growth of just 0.8%.

Potential inflection point

Waco's unemployment rate sits above both the state's 4.0% and national 4.1% readings, a reversal from earlier-year parity. If the gap widens further, local talent acquisition may face less competitive pressure even as healthcare and construction roles stay tight.

Early indicator

Statewide construction employment grew 5.1% annually, outpacing the nation, while Texas faces an estimated shortage of tens of thousands of electricians by 2027. Waco employers in adjacent trades should monitor whether regional apprenticeship investment reaches Central Texas before competing for scarce skilled labor.

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