{"schema_version": 1, "id": "wa-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 520, "label": "WA NONMETROPOLITAN AREA", "slug": "wa-nonmetropolitan-area"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T08:09:13.086817+00:00", "headline": "Nonmetro Washington's falling jobless rate hides a shrinking workforce.", "headline_summary": "Nonmetropolitan Washington counties posted unemployment as low as 3.6% in Skamania and 4.0% in Cowlitz this September, but state economists attribute the decline to labor force contraction amid a 3,445-worker agricultural layoff in Brewster.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Nonmetro county unemployment range", "value": "3.6%\u20135.6%", "context": "Skamania (3.6%) to Wahkiakum (5.6%), Sept. 2026"}, {"label": "Statewide unemployment trend", "value": "4.8%", "context": "Third straight monthly decline, down 0.1 pt"}, {"label": "Largest single WARN filing (nonmetro)", "value": "3,445 workers", "context": "Gebbers Farms, Brewster, effective Nov. 25"}, {"label": "Projected nonmetro job growth, 2024\u20132029", "value": "0.81%", "context": "Northwest WA, below WA statewide average"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Lower unemployment is masking a shrinking workforce.", "body": "Nonmetro counties from Grays Harbor to Cowlitz posted unemployment declines in September, but state economists attribute the statewide pattern to labor force contraction. Commerce leaders should treat the falling rate as a participation story."}, {"headline": "Agricultural layoffs are seasonal, but their scale is notable.", "body": "The 3,445-worker Gebbers Farms WARN notice and additional filings at Columbia Reach Chiawana Orchards and Pacific Ag Services reflect the harvest-cycle layoff pattern typical of nonmetro Washington agriculture. The scale this cycle is large enough to register in county-level labor force data even if temporary."}, {"headline": "Wage gains are concentrated in care and skilled-trade work.", "body": "Advertised pay for certified nursing assistants ($51,678, up moderately) and electricians ($79,713, up significantly) outpaces broader metro wage trends, suggesting continued local demand in health support and construction trades even as agriculture and office-support roles soften. This divergence is a more reliable local momentum signal than the topline unemployment figure."}, {"headline": "Growth projections lag the state average by a wide margin.", "body": "Northwest Washington's projected 0.81% job growth through 2029 trails Washington's overall trajectory substantially, consistent with a nonmetro economy more exposed to agricultural cycles and less diversified than Puget Sound metros. Economic development planning should account for this structural gap."}], "local_conditions": "Nonmetropolitan Washington counties posted a broad-based unemployment decline in September, with rates falling to 4.3% in Grays Harbor, 4.0% in Cowlitz, and 3.6% in Skamania, even as the state's labor force contracted and announced layoffs concentrated in agriculture, food processing, and hospitality. Seasonal volatility in fruit and farm operations \u2014 including a 3,445-worker WARN filing at Gebbers Farms in Brewster effective late November \u2014 is colliding with a structurally slow growth outlook, as Northwest Washington's job market is projected to expand just 0.81% through 2029, well below the state average.", "implications": "Falling unemployment paired with a shrinking labor force signals tightening availability, a distinction that matters for commerce leaders weighing expansion timing against a thinner local talent pool. Concentrated agricultural layoffs create short-term seasonal churn without reflecting underlying demand weakness, while advertised pay gains in food service, nursing, and skilled trades point to where wage pressure is building locally. Local economic development leaders and chambers may want to track whether displaced agricultural and food-processing workers move into adjacent sectors such as warehousing or healthcare support, where advertised pay is already climbing.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected release", "body": "October county-level unemployment data is due November 24 from the Washington Employment Security Department; watch whether the three-month declining trend in Grays Harbor, Lewis, and Cowlitz counties holds once seasonal agricultural layoffs fully register."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Agricultural and food-processing WARN filings have affected well over 4,000 nonmetro workers since mid-October; local workforce boards and chambers should watch whether these workers re-enter the labor force in healthcare, warehousing, or trades, where advertised pay is rising."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Washington's minimum wage rises 3.5% to $17.73 per hour on January 1, a change that will land directly on nonmetro retail, food service, and hospitality employers already navigating thin margins and seasonal volatility."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Statewide public-sector job losses (roughly 10,400 in September) bear watching locally, given nonmetro counties' reliance on public employment and services for economic stability relative to metro peers."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34486.0, "metro_p50": 36660.0, "metro_p75": 38480.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35163.0, "metro_p50": 37032.4, "metro_p75": 38480.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35630.0, "metro_p50": 43160.0, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60060.0, "metro_p50": 74448.0, "metro_p75": 85000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32185.0, "metro_p50": 34797.0, "metro_p75": 36838.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37672.0, "metro_p50": 43293.2, "metro_p75": 47840.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 67230.0, "metro_p50": 79713.0, "metro_p75": 91520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36920.0, "metro_p50": 40560.0, "metro_p75": 43306.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37440.0, "metro_p50": 42640.0, "metro_p75": 46800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36355.75, "metro_p50": 47340.4, "metro_p75": 49650.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 43680.0, "metro_p50": 51678.0, "metro_p75": 53394.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 41296.0, "metro_p50": 48880.0, "metro_p75": 54072.25, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62239.0, "metro_p50": 70000.0, "metro_p75": 74997.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 95076.5, "metro_p50": 116314.0, "metro_p75": 124800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 121050.0, "metro_p50": 142820.0, "metro_p75": 156557.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 105620.25, "metro_p50": 118408.4, "metro_p75": 127295.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 61786.0, "metro_p50": 75205.0, "metro_p75": 85210.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 82303.0, "metro_p50": 95071.0, "metro_p75": 105000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 63514.0, "metro_p50": 76000.0, "metro_p75": 91585.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 44200.0, "metro_p50": 50273.4, "metro_p75": 57522.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 63094.5, "metro_p50": 88000.0, "metro_p75": 90151.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 41904.75, "metro_p50": 62288.0, "metro_p75": 77277.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57539.75, "metro_p50": 90220.0, "metro_p75": 112566.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 62400.0, "metro_p50": 76250.0, "metro_p75": 80000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 86817.0, "metro_p50": 99707.8, "metro_p75": 101424.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 63440.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 79314.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 42255.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 45977.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 59400.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 56971.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 82760.5, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 71827.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 37686.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 71895.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "Washington Employment Security Department", "source_url": null, "statement": "September county unemployment rates for Grays Harbor, Cowlitz, Skamania, Wahkiakum"}, {"source_name": "Washington OFM WARN Notice Database", "source_url": null, "statement": "Gebbers Farms WARN notice for 3,445 workers effective Nov. 25, 2026"}, {"source_name": "Washington Employment Security Department", "source_url": null, "statement": "Northwest Washington job growth projected at 0.81% through 2029"}, {"source_name": "Washington Employment Security Department", "source_url": null, "statement": "Statewide labor force contraction cited as driver of falling unemployment"}, {"source_name": "Washington Department of Labor & Industries", "source_url": null, "statement": "Washington minimum wage rising to $17.73/hour Jan. 1, 2027"}, {"source_name": "Washington Employment Security Department", "source_url": null, "statement": "Washington public sector lost roughly 10,400 jobs in September 2026"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "wa-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "wa-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "wa-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:32:02.560868+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/wa-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/wa-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}