{"schema_version": 1, "id": "wa-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 520, "label": "WA NONMETROPOLITAN AREA", "slug": "wa-nonmetropolitan-area"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:44:29.561820+00:00", "headline": "Harvest layoffs and wage erosion test nonmetro Washington's resilience.", "headline_summary": "Washington's statewide wage growth of 3.1% is trailing 3.5% inflation while nonmetro counties absorb seasonal agricultural WARN notices topping 760 workers at Gilbert Orchards and Sundquist Fruit alone.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Washington wage growth vs inflation", "value": "3.1% vs 3.5%", "context": "Implies ~0.5% real wage decline statewide"}, {"label": "Statewide job change, September", "value": "-14,500 jobs", "context": "Second consecutive month of disappointing growth"}, {"label": "Nonmetro agricultural WARN impact", "value": "761 workers", "context": "Gilbert Orchards (518) + Sundquist Fruit (243)"}, {"label": "Washington unemployment rate", "value": "4.9% (Aug 2026)", "context": "vs 4.1% US national rate"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Harvest-season layoffs mask the real nonmetro signal.", "body": "Gilbert Orchards and Sundquist Fruit notices account for over 760 of the year's nonmetro WARN-affected workers, a predictable seasonal pattern that should not be read as a broader economic downturn. The more telling signal is whether statewide wage-inflation erosion (3.1% vs 3.5%) persists into the non-harvest months."}, {"headline": "Healthcare pay strength stands apart from a cooling backdrop.", "body": "Registered Nurse and Certified Nursing Assistant advertised pay are both up significantly locally even as statewide education and health services added 10,300 jobs in September, one of the few sectors still expanding. This divergence suggests healthcare demand in nonmetro counties remains structurally tight regardless of broader labor market softening."}, {"headline": "Wage-inflation gap is the real purchasing-power story.", "body": "Washington wages rose 3.1% year-over-year against 3.5% inflation, implying a 0.5% real wage decline that compounds in nonmetro counties where fewer high-wage sectors offset the loss. Commerce leaders should treat local consumer spending capacity, not job counts alone, as the more reliable gauge of near-term business conditions."}, {"headline": "Data lag limits precision for nonmetro decision-makers.", "body": "No official September county-level release exists yet for nonmetro Washington, with the most current county data dating to July and full figures not expected until late October. Government economists and chambers relying on nonmetro-specific numbers should treat current readings as directional, not final, until that release lands."}], "local_conditions": "Washington's rural and nonmetro counties are absorbing the same statewide cooling trend driving September's 14,500-job statewide decline, with agricultural WARN activity (Gilbert Orchards, 518 workers; Sundquist Fruit, 243 workers) concentrated outside the Seattle-Spokane-Vancouver metro corridors. Seasonal harvest layoffs combine with weak statewide wage growth of 3.1% against 3.5% inflation to signal that nonmetro labor income is losing ground even as sectors like healthcare and food service post locally advertised pay gains.", "implications": "Agricultural-season WARN filings in nonmetro counties are a structural, recurring feature of the local economy rather than a distress signal, but their scale this year is large enough to affect county-level labor force participation readings that government economists track for policy design. Commerce leaders evaluating expansion or investment timing in nonmetro counties should weigh the gap between strong advertised pay in healthcare and food service against broad wage-inflation erosion elsewhere, since consumer purchasing power \u2014 not labor availability \u2014 looks like the binding constraint on local business conditions. Consider monitoring county-level labor force participation data as it becomes available in October to distinguish seasonal agricultural churn from a deeper softening trend.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected release", "body": "Washington Employment Security Department county-level data for September is scheduled around October 20, which will offer the first real nonmetro-specific confirmation of whether the statewide 14,500-job decline concentrated in rural counties or metro cores."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "WARN filings tied to fruit and orchard operations recur seasonally each September-October; watch whether any additional nonmetro agricultural or food-processing notices file before harvest wraps, which would extend this year's elevated pace."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Statewide real wage decline of roughly 0.5% has yet to show up clearly in nonmetro county wage data; if the October release confirms similar erosion locally, consumer-facing retail and hospitality businesses in these counties may see softer discretionary spending heading into the holiday season."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "National payroll growth has slowed sharply (29,000 added in September, with prior months revised down 60,000); if that national cooling persists, nonmetro Washington counties with federal or trade-exposed employers could see secondary effects by early 2027."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33112.0, "metro_p50": 36784.0, "metro_p75": 39291.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 36922.0, "metro_p75": 38266.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35310.0, "metro_p50": 42676.6, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60060.0, "metro_p50": 74274.0, "metro_p75": 83980.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32185.0, "metro_p50": 34633.0, "metro_p75": 36620.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37440.0, "metro_p50": 42810.0, "metro_p75": 47840.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60347.0, "metro_p50": 77232.0, "metro_p75": 84468.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35630.0, "metro_p50": 39683.2, "metro_p75": 43108.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36753.0, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 45760.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33994.0, "metro_p50": 44512.0, "metro_p75": 47520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 41600.0, "metro_p50": 51480.0, "metro_p75": 52926.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 39795.0, "metro_p50": 46800.0, "metro_p75": 51896.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62239.0, "metro_p50": 67183.6, "metro_p75": 70000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 94000.0, "metro_p50": 115185.0, "metro_p75": 123968.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 89625.0, "metro_p50": 145642.6, "metro_p75": 166615.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 99151.0, "metro_p50": 124243.2, "metro_p75": 157321.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60320.0, "metro_p50": 72431.0, "metro_p75": 81741.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 76653.0, "metro_p50": 95029.8, "metro_p75": 100805.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 61841.0, "metro_p50": 78750.0, "metro_p75": 83498.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 44200.0, "metro_p50": 58358.2, "metro_p75": 66213.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56926.5, "metro_p50": 88000.0, "metro_p75": 89434.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 42044.0, "metro_p50": 62204.0, "metro_p75": 75427.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55969.0, "metro_p50": 86656.4, "metro_p75": 108291.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 51506.0, "metro_p50": 75000.0, "metro_p75": 80000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 83690.0, "metro_p50": 97421.2, "metro_p75": 106156.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 60361.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 82605.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 45760.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 50960.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 105178.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 86970.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 82274.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 68184.5, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 37575.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 74455.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "wa-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "wa-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "wa-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T14:37:39.682749+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/wa-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/wa-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}