{"schema_version": 1, "id": "vt-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 519, "label": "VT NONMETROPOLITAN AREA", "slug": "vt-nonmetropolitan-area"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T08:09:21.139592+00:00", "headline": "Nonmetro Vermont's low jobless rate hides a shrinking workforce.", "headline_summary": "Bennington County unemployment sits at 3.1% and statewide joblessness holds at 2.6%, but nearly 10,000 workers have left Vermont's labor force in the past year, raising real questions about capacity for Beta Technologies' plan to double its workforce.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Bennington County unemployment", "value": "3.1%", "context": "vs. 2.6% statewide, 4.1% national"}, {"label": "Vermont labor force change", "value": "-10,359", "context": "Year-over-year, June 2026 vs. June 2025"}, {"label": "Jobs-to-unemployed ratio, Vermont", "value": "1.6", "context": "Open jobs per unemployed Vermonter"}, {"label": "WARN-affected workers, Vermont 2026", "value": "677", "context": "Up 88% vs. 2025"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Tight unemployment rate reflects demographic shifts.", "body": "Nearly 10,000 workers left Vermont's labor force over the past year, and nonmetro counties like Bennington (3.1%) show low joblessness alongside shrinking participation. Economic development planning should treat this as a labor-supply ceiling rather than evidence of a booming local economy."}, {"headline": "Sector gains are concentrated in health care and government.", "body": "Health/social assistance (+2.0%) and state government (+1.6%) added jobs statewide while retail trade (-1.5%), professional services (-2.6%), and wholesale trade (-4.2%) contracted. Commerce leaders assessing the vibrancy of nonmetro business districts should look past the headline rate to these sector splits."}, {"headline": "Beta Technologies' expansion plan is an outsized local test case.", "body": "A single advanced-manufacturing employer doubling its workforce in a labor market already short nearly 10,000 workers could pull talent from smaller nonmetro employers across sectors. Worth tracking as an early signal of how concentrated growth interacts with a constrained labor pool."}, {"headline": "Wage gains in skilled trades point to where nonmetro demand is real.", "body": "Metro advertised pay for construction laborers (up, significant) and electricians (up, significant) is rising faster than many white-collar categories, consistent with continued building and infrastructure activity in nonmetro counties. This divergence is a more reliable read on local economic momentum than the unemployment rate alone."}], "local_conditions": "Vermont's nonmetropolitan counties continue to post unemployment rates among the nation's lowest \u2014 Bennington County fell to 3.1% in the latest reading \u2014 even as the statewide labor force contracted by nearly 10,000 workers over the past year, a gap consistent with retiring baby boomers and a shrinking pool of working-age residents amid steady demand. Sector-level divergence is sharpening the picture: health/social assistance and state government added jobs through the summer while retail trade, professional services, and wholesale trade all contracted, suggesting nonmetro Vermont's tight headline numbers mask selective softness outside healthcare and the public sector.", "implications": "Low unemployment paired with a shrinking labor force signals a structural capacity constraint for nonmetro Vermont's economy, meaning commerce leaders evaluating local expansion should weigh workforce availability as carefully as consumer demand. Beta Technologies' plan to double its Vermont workforce within a year stands out against this backdrop as a test case for whether the regional labor pool can absorb a large single-employer expansion without drawing talent from adjacent sectors. Commerce and economic development leaders should consider monitoring whether Beta's growth draws measurably from retail, professional services, or other contracting sectors in the coming months.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Watch whether Beta Technologies' hiring plans show up in nonmetro job ad volumes over the next two months \u2014 job ads are a signal of hiring demand, and one ad often covers several openings \u2014 as an early read on how much labor-force slack the region actually has."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Vermont WARN-affected worker counts are up 88% year over year statewide; any additional filings touching nonmetro employers would be a meaningful departure from the otherwise tight labor market narrative."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Continued declines in retail trade and professional services employment, if sustained into November, would suggest nonmetro business districts are softening even as overall unemployment stays low."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Labor force participation trends in the next Vermont Department of Labor release will clarify whether outmigration and retirements are stabilizing or accelerating, a key input for any nonmetro expansion or investment decision."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30071.0, "metro_p50": 33140.0, "metro_p75": 36036.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31822.0, "metro_p50": 34384.6, "metro_p75": 36036.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34523.0, "metro_p50": 40402.2, "metro_p75": 42626.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56988.0, "metro_p50": 75609.0, "metro_p75": 85000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32838.0, "metro_p50": 35000.0, "metro_p75": 39353.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37428.5, "metro_p50": 46800.0, "metro_p75": 48100.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62589.0, "metro_p50": 77838.0, "metro_p75": 79040.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36107.0, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34295.0, "metro_p50": 39034.4, "metro_p75": 43194.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33414.0, "metro_p50": 37336.0, "metro_p75": 37960.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37439.0, "metro_p50": 44808.0, "metro_p75": 50960.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 39520.0, "metro_p50": 46800.0, "metro_p75": 49996.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55880.0, "metro_p50": 65104.0, "metro_p75": 76713.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 91057.0, "metro_p50": 116064.0, "metro_p75": 127761.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 127226.75, "metro_p50": 153287.6, "metro_p75": 162331.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 100374.0, "metro_p50": 127338.2, "metro_p75": 142486.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56667.75, "metro_p50": 70000.0, "metro_p75": 76118.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 74439.25, "metro_p50": 94064.0, "metro_p75": 107526.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58362.0, "metro_p50": 77079.2, "metro_p75": 93500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60702.0, "metro_p50": 80359.4, "metro_p75": 111215.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 59500.0, "metro_p50": 59500.0, "metro_p75": 59500.0, "metro_trend_direction": null, "metro_trend_magnitude": null, "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 43862.0, "metro_p50": 65182.4, "metro_p75": 70226.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 72500.0, "metro_p50": 97362.0, "metro_p75": 114410.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": null, "metro_p25": null, "metro_p50": null, "metro_p75": null, "metro_trend_direction": null, "metro_trend_magnitude": null, "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 77013.0, "metro_p50": 94625.6, "metro_p75": 101317.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 51229.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 100883.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 40206.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 41600.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 138559.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 89421.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "stable", "postings_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 81101.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 67867.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 37672.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 68329.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "Manchester Journal", "source_url": null, "statement": "Bennington County unemployment rate fell to 3.1%"}, {"source_name": "Vermont Public", "source_url": null, "statement": "Vermont labor force contracted by nearly 10,000 workers year-over-year"}, {"source_name": "CT Public", "source_url": null, "statement": "Beta Technologies plans to double its Vermont workforce within a year"}, {"source_name": "Vermont Department of Labor", "source_url": null, "statement": "Vermont sector employment changes: health/social assistance +2.0%, retail -1.5%"}, {"source_name": "Vermont Department of Labor Commissioner", "source_url": null, "statement": "Vermont has 1.6 open jobs for every unemployed worker"}, {"source_name": "Vermont Department of Labor", "source_url": null, "statement": "Vermont WARN-affected workers up 88% in 2026 vs. 2025"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "vt-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "vt-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "vt-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:32:00.328170+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/vt-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/vt-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}