{"schema_version": 1, "id": "visalia-porterville-ca-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 410, "label": "Visalia-Porterville, CA MSA", "slug": "visalia-porterville-ca-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T08:08:19.603150+00:00", "headline": "Visalia unemployment eases to 9.8%, still double the state rate.", "headline_summary": "Tulare County's jobless rate fell to 9.8% from 10.4% in August, narrowing its gap with California's 5.1% statewide rate while that gap remains substantial, as local healthcare and finance pay advance while trades and food service pay retreat.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Visalia MSA unemployment rate", "value": "9.8%", "context": "Down from 10.4% in August; vs CA 5.1%"}, {"label": "California unemployment rate", "value": "5.1%", "context": "Third straight month at 5.1%; down from 5.5% YoY"}, {"label": "Electrician advertised pay (metro)", "value": "$72,355", "context": "Down significantly vs national $71,835, up moderate"}, {"label": "CNA/Home Health Aide pay (metro)", "value": "$51,368", "context": "Up moderate, vs national $41,600"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Metro unemployment gap to the state is widening.", "body": "Tulare County's 9.8% rate compares with California's 5.1%, nearly double the state figure even as both have improved from year-ago levels. Economic development officials and chambers should frame local competitiveness pitches around specific sector strength, since the aggregate unemployment number remains an outlier even among inland counties like Fresno (8.1%) and Bakersfield-Delano (7.9%)."}, {"headline": "Healthcare and finance roles are pulling local wages upward.", "body": "Certified Nursing Assistant pay rose moderately and Financial Analyst and Account Manager postings rose significantly, mirroring the statewide pattern of education/health services and professional services leading job gains. This divergence suggests the metro's wage growth story is increasingly concentrated in specific sectors rather than broad-based across the basket."}, {"headline": "Trade and food-service pay erosion warrants a closer look.", "body": "Electrician pay fell significantly locally even as the national figure rose moderately, and Food Service Worker pay also fell significantly \u2014 a local-specific divergence from national trends. Commerce leaders evaluating the health of consumer and construction-adjacent spending locally should treat this as a signal of softer local demand specific to those segments."}, {"headline": "Seasonal agricultural swings still set the metro's unemployment rhythm.", "body": "The one-point drop from August to September reflects the harvest-season hiring pattern endemic to Tulare County's agricultural base, a seasonal dynamic distinct from any structural improvement in labor market capacity. Policy economists tracking labor force participation locally should weight month-over-month changes against this seasonal baseline before drawing trend conclusions."}], "local_conditions": "Tulare County's unemployment rate fell to 9.8% in September from 10.4% in August, continuing a seasonal pullback tied to the agricultural harvest cycle, though the metro remains nearly double California's 5.1% statewide rate. Advertised pay across the metro's basket shows a split pattern \u2014 healthcare and finance-adjacent roles posting gains (Certified Nursing Assistant up moderately, Financial Analyst and Account Manager up significantly) while skilled trades and food service show significant declines, consistent with statewide softening in leisure/hospitality and inland California's persistent coastal-inland wage gap.", "implications": "Metro unemployment nearly double the state rate signals a labor market still working through structural slack that persists beyond the usual seasonal pattern \u2014 a relevant data point for economic development officials weighing incentive packages or infrastructure timing against a workforce pool that is deeper than headline tightness elsewhere in California would suggest. For commerce leaders, significant pay declines in construction-adjacent trades (Electrician down significantly, Food Service down significantly) alongside strength in healthcare and financial roles point to an uneven local recovery where consumer-facing and trade sectors lag institutional and professional ones. Current conditions suggest local economic development messaging may benefit from distinguishing between the county's elevated headline unemployment rate and its specific pockets of wage strength when courting investment or policy attention.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected", "body": "Tulare County's unemployment rate typically rises again as harvest-season agricultural work winds down heading into winter months. Watch whether the post-harvest increase tracks prior years or signals a deeper-than-seasonal softening."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "California's SB 951 will require WARN notices to disclose AI-driven layoffs starting with EDD's quarterly displacement reports \u2014 a new data source that could sharpen visibility into whether local employers are among those affected. No major WARN filings have been reported in the Visalia-Porterville MSA this month, a contrast with the volume seen in Bay Area and Sacramento-area filings."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Advertised pay for Electrician and CDL Truck Driver roles is down with moderate-to-significant magnitude locally, against stable-to-rising national trends. Construction and logistics activity levels in the metro are worth tracking as early indicators of whether this is a local demand pullback or a short-term posting fluctuation."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Statewide, four of eleven industry sectors added jobs in September, led by education and health services \u2014 a pattern that, if it holds locally, would reinforce the metro's own healthcare wage strength. Local economic development officials should watch whether Q4 county-level sector data confirms this alignment with state trends."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31794.0, "metro_p50": 35776.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34565.0, "metro_p50": 36722.6, "metro_p75": 39416.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33874.0, "metro_p50": 37661.0, "metro_p75": 39788.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60840.0, "metro_p50": 72800.0, "metro_p75": 78813.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34514.0, "metro_p50": 35981.0, "metro_p75": 36639.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36157.5, "metro_p50": 37336.0, "metro_p75": 38251.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62273.0, "metro_p50": 72355.0, "metro_p75": 76952.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34523.5, "metro_p50": 36440.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 38628.0, "metro_p50": 49368.0, "metro_p75": 62500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33020.0, "metro_p50": 35214.0, "metro_p75": 36346.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37960.0, "metro_p50": 51368.0, "metro_p75": 52988.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35069.75, "metro_p50": 42640.0, "metro_p75": 47755.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 52554.0, "metro_p50": 81590.8, "metro_p75": 82905.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 98154.5, "metro_p50": 120744.0, "metro_p75": 125393.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 113462.0, "metro_p50": 127844.0, "metro_p75": 136543.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 106585.0, "metro_p50": 145000.0, "metro_p75": 162500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60670.0, "metro_p50": 74360.0, "metro_p75": 81249.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 75105.5, "metro_p50": 98444.0, "metro_p75": 103750.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 52260.0, "metro_p50": 65520.0, "metro_p75": 67374.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 50000.0, "metro_p50": 70050.0, "metro_p75": 79850.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 81730.0, "metro_p50": 109470.8, "metro_p75": 129375.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36467.25, "metro_p50": 58789.8, "metro_p75": 67736.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 84706.0, "metro_p50": 153918.0, "metro_p75": 153918.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 74500.0, "metro_p50": 94853.0, "metro_p75": 102750.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 84847.75, "metro_p50": 101462.8, "metro_p75": 115397.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 46113.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 71583.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 39894.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 55120.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 59394.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 54439.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "stable", "postings_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 55120.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 86497.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 37820.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 74048.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "visalia-porterville-ca-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "visalia-porterville-ca-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "visalia-porterville-ca-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:31:58.168364+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/visalia-porterville-ca-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/visalia-porterville-ca-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}