{"schema_version": 1, "id": "vallejo-fairfield-ca-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 394, "label": "Vallejo-Fairfield, CA MSA", "slug": "vallejo-fairfield-ca-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T08:06:57.993305+00:00", "headline": "Solano County unemployment tops the Bay Area at 5.5%.", "headline_summary": "Solano's jobless rate has climbed to 5.5%, the highest of any Bay Area county and well above San Francisco's 4.0%, even as construction and HVAC pay post some of the metro's sharpest gains.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Solano County unemployment", "value": "5.5%", "context": "Highest of 9 Bay Area counties, Aug 2026"}, {"label": "Solano vs. national unemployment", "value": "5.5% vs 4.1%", "context": "1.4-point gap vs. national rate"}, {"label": "Total local jobs", "value": "147,800", "context": "Solano County, Aug 2026, up from July"}, {"label": "California statewide unemployment", "value": "5.1%", "context": "Held flat 3rd consecutive month, Sept 2026"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Solano's jobless rate now leads the Bay Area.", "body": "At 5.5% in August, Solano County unemployment sits above all eight other Bay Area counties and roughly 1.4 points above San Francisco's 4.0%. That gap, open for three consecutive months, is consistent with a metro economy decoupling somewhat from the coastal Bay Area's steadier footing."}, {"headline": "Construction and skilled trades show the clearest local wage momentum.", "body": "Construction laborer pay rose significantly to a metro median of $47,632, and HVAC technician pay climbed significantly to $93,600, both outpacing their national counterparts. That divergence is consistent with sustained building and infrastructure activity locally even as broader job growth softens."}, {"headline": "Education and trade/transport are the metro's steadiest job-growth sectors.", "body": "Local education employment added roughly 1,000 jobs and trade/transport added 200 even as leisure/hospitality and private education/health services each lost 100. Public-sector and logistics-adjacent stability appears to be cushioning the metro against broader softening."}, {"headline": "Warehouse and delivery pay softening may track broader logistics demand cooling.", "body": "Warehouse/fulfillment pay moved down moderately to $41,600 and delivery driver pay declined moderately to $47,613 locally, both diverging from stable national figures. That local-specific softening is consistent with Solano's elevated unemployment and may reflect reduced throughput demand at regional distribution operations."}], "local_conditions": "Solano County's unemployment rate held at 5.5% in August, the highest among all nine Bay Area counties, even as total local jobs edged up to 147,800 on gains in education and trade/transport. Softening in leisure/hospitality and private education/health services alongside a county-level jobless rate running a full point above the national 4.1% suggests the metro's labor market is cooling faster than the broader Bay Area and the nation.", "implications": "Solano's unemployment premium relative to San Francisco (4.0%) and the national rate points to a metro still working through slack that coastal Bay Area counties have largely absorbed, a signal commerce leaders should weigh before assuming regional tech and finance momentum extends locally. Advertised pay gains in construction, HVAC, and accounting point to pockets of tightness worth tracking even as broader hiring demand softens. Current conditions suggest monitoring whether Solano's unemployment gap versus neighboring counties narrows or widens over the next two reporting cycles before drawing conclusions about the metro's standing within the Bay Area recovery.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Watch whether Solano's unemployment rate holds at 5.5% or continues climbing when September and October county figures post; three consecutive monthly increases (5.0% to 5.3% to 5.5%) would mark a clearer downturn than a plateau."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "California's statewide WARN filings reached 583 notices covering 65,139 workers through late October; none of the major October filings (Netflix, Fender, ServiceNow, Haas Automation) are headquartered in Solano County, but commerce leaders should watch whether displaced regional talent or supply-chain effects reach Vallejo-Fairfield employers."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Construction and HVAC wage strength locally may reflect data center and infrastructure build-out activity referenced in state-level reporting; confirmation of any Solano-specific project announcements over the next 60 days would validate whether this is a durable local trend or a statewide pattern merely showing up in local pay data."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Leisure/hospitality job losses at both the state level (down 6,800 statewide) and locally (Solano education/health and hospitality softening) bear watching heading into the holiday shopping and travel season, a period that typically tests discretionary-spending-dependent sectors first."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35046.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 39998.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33502.0, "metro_p50": 37387.0, "metro_p75": 39416.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36946.0, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 44200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58500.0, "metro_p50": 77948.0, "metro_p75": 88400.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36430.0, "metro_p50": 47613.0, "metro_p75": 52000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 39229.0, "metro_p50": 47632.0, "metro_p75": 51220.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 67600.0, "metro_p50": 85335.0, "metro_p75": 93600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37700.0, "metro_p50": 43680.0, "metro_p75": 49960.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35776.0, "metro_p50": 45915.0, "metro_p75": 55000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 39603.0, "metro_p50": 44554.0, "metro_p75": 48256.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 41274.75, "metro_p50": 47840.0, "metro_p75": 49920.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 41600.0, "metro_p50": 50606.0, "metro_p75": 57200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 70720.0, "metro_p50": 93600.0, "metro_p75": 93600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 99872.0, "metro_p50": 134973.0, "metro_p75": 145529.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 105624.0, "metro_p50": 108125.4, "metro_p75": 126460.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 106585.0, "metro_p50": 145000.0, "metro_p75": 162500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 73156.5, "metro_p50": 88292.0, "metro_p75": 90158.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 72828.0, "metro_p50": 101191.2, "metro_p75": 110844.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 66479.25, "metro_p50": 79283.2, "metro_p75": 97325.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 50000.0, "metro_p50": 70050.0, "metro_p75": 79850.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 81730.0, "metro_p50": 109470.8, "metro_p75": 129375.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 43888.0, "metro_p50": 74796.6, "metro_p75": 86000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60000.0, "metro_p50": 82500.0, "metro_p75": 94514.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 74500.0, "metro_p50": 94853.0, "metro_p75": 102750.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 84847.75, "metro_p50": 101462.8, "metro_p75": 115397.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 62400.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 83200.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 42640.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 54600.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 66000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 65520.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 74777.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 62400.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 40040.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 76823.5, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "vallejo-fairfield-ca-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "vallejo-fairfield-ca-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "vallejo-fairfield-ca-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:31:49.749395+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/vallejo-fairfield-ca-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/vallejo-fairfield-ca-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}