{"schema_version": 1, "id": "vallejo-fairfield-ca-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 394, "label": "Vallejo-Fairfield, CA MSA", "slug": "vallejo-fairfield-ca-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:44:07.502687+00:00", "headline": "Solano County unemployment outpaces every Bay Area peer.", "headline_summary": "Solano County's jobless rate hit 5.5% in August \u2014 highest among Bay Area counties and a full point above California's 5.1% \u2014 even as metro-wide payrolls held nearly flat at a 4.2% unemployment reading.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Solano County unemployment", "value": "5.5%", "context": "Highest of 9 Bay Area counties, up from 5.0% in June"}, {"label": "Vallejo-Fairfield MSA unemployment", "value": "4.2%", "context": "Below county rate but up from July's 4.9% smoothed figure"}, {"label": "California statewide unemployment", "value": "5.1%", "context": "48th among all states nationally"}, {"label": "National unemployment rate", "value": "4.1%", "context": "One-year low; Solano runs 1.4 points above it"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Solano's jobless rate diverges sharply from its regional peers.", "body": "At 5.5% in August, up from 5.0% in June, Solano County now carries the highest unemployment rate of any Bay Area county \u2014 a full percentage point above the statewide 5.1% figure. That gap signals the local economy is absorbing region-wide softness unevenly, likely tied to the county's heavier reliance on logistics, retail, and consumer-facing employment relative to tech-heavy neighboring counties."}, {"headline": "Wage softness in blue-collar roles contradicts the national pattern.", "body": "Nationally, construction and manufacturing wages are among the few bright spots this month, yet locally, construction laborer, manufacturing production worker, and HVAC technician pay all registered moderate-to-significant declines. That divergence may suggest Solano's goods-handling and building trades are facing softer local demand even as those same occupations post gains elsewhere in the country."}, {"headline": "Healthcare and education remain the metro's stabilizing anchor.", "body": "Registered nurse pay rose moderately and local education payrolls expanded with the school year, consistent with statewide patterns where healthcare and public education were the only sectors adding jobs broadly. For commerce leaders, this reinforces where consumer spending power and public-sector payroll stability are least likely to erode further in the near term."}, {"headline": "A refinery closure signals a longer regional adjustment underway.", "body": "California's $3 million allocation to support workers and small businesses ahead of the Valero Benicia Refinery's planned closure points to a slow-moving, regionally concentrated labor transition rather than a sudden shock. Commerce leaders in Solano County should treat this as an early test of local retraining capacity and small-business resilience, not an isolated event."}], "local_conditions": "Solano County's unemployment rate climbed to 5.5% in August, the highest among all nine Bay Area counties and well above both the state's 5.1% and the national 4.1% rate, even as the broader Vallejo-Fairfield MSA posted a comparatively steadier 4.2% reading for September. Local momentum is uneven by sector: education payrolls grew as schools reopened and trade/transportation/construction added modest headcount, while private education, health services, and leisure/hospitality each shed jobs, pointing to a metro economy holding ground overall but losing ground within consumer-facing sectors most exposed to tighter household budgets.", "implications": "Solano County's position as the Bay Area's highest-unemployment county, paired with softening advertised pay across warehouse, construction, manufacturing, and delivery roles, suggests local consumer and logistics-adjacent demand is cooling faster than the region's headline numbers imply. Commerce leaders evaluating expansion or investment timing should weigh this sector unevenness rather than the blended metro rate alone \u2014 current conditions suggest reviewing which specific sectors (healthcare, public education, skilled trades) are still showing wage and employment resilience before committing to broader local investment assumptions.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Solano County's unemployment rate has risen for three consecutive months (5.0% in June to 5.5% in August). Confirmation of a fourth consecutive increase in the next county-level release would mark a clearer trend rather than monthly noise."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "The Valero Benicia Refinery closure, slated for April 2026, is likely to generate WARN notices and visible job losses in coming months. Local economic development leaders should track whether state retraining funds reach affected workers before displacement peaks."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Advertised pay for warehouse, delivery, and manufacturing roles has already softened locally while holding steady nationally. A continuation of this gap over the next two months would reinforce that Solano's logistics-dependent employment base is cooling faster than comparable metros."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "California's minimum wage rises to $17.40 per hour on January 1, 2027. Retail and food-service employers in the metro, where advertised pay for cashiers and retail associates has been flat, will face a mechanical wage floor increase that merits watching for pass-through effects on local pricing and hours."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34840.0, "metro_p50": 37432.2, "metro_p75": 39998.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32737.0, "metro_p50": 36816.0, "metro_p75": 38480.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37151.0, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 44720.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58500.0, "metro_p50": 77720.0, "metro_p75": 91000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36430.0, "metro_p50": 45968.0, "metro_p75": 52000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37127.5, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 47320.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 67600.0, "metro_p50": 79783.0, "metro_p75": 93600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37563.0, "metro_p50": 41709.0, "metro_p75": 46748.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35776.0, "metro_p50": 45915.0, "metro_p75": 52000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37214.25, "metro_p50": 44554.0, "metro_p75": 48256.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 41709.0, "metro_p50": 47840.0, "metro_p75": 52000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 41309.0, "metro_p50": 48973.0, "metro_p75": 56030.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 70720.0, "metro_p50": 93600.0, "metro_p75": 93600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 99950.5, "metro_p50": 132943.0, "metro_p75": 145000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 105571.0, "metro_p50": 108125.0, "metro_p75": 121613.25, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 105880.0, "metro_p50": 145419.0, "metro_p75": 162070.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 75000.0, "metro_p50": 88055.4, "metro_p75": 90158.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 72828.0, "metro_p50": 78040.6, "metro_p75": 94381.25, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 65763.0, "metro_p50": 76803.4, "metro_p75": 96800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 49779.0, "metro_p50": 69611.0, "metro_p75": 79474.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 80000.0, "metro_p50": 106039.0, "metro_p75": 130500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 43680.0, "metro_p50": 75004.0, "metro_p75": 85500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60000.0, "metro_p50": 82500.0, "metro_p75": 99508.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 60099.75, "metro_p50": 89500.0, "metro_p75": 100625.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 84564.0, "metro_p50": 101345.0, "metro_p75": 114767.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 62400.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 77988.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 42640.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 54600.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 72500.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 65000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 75000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 62400.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 40179.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 77651.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "vallejo-fairfield-ca-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "vallejo-fairfield-ca-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "vallejo-fairfield-ca-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T14:37:28.930713+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/vallejo-fairfield-ca-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/vallejo-fairfield-ca-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}