{"schema_version": 1, "id": "va-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 504, "label": "VA NONMETROPOLITAN AREA", "slug": "va-nonmetropolitan-area"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T08:08:29.170347+00:00", "headline": "Virginia's rural labor force is shrinking faster than it's growing jobs.", "headline_summary": "Virginia's 3.6% unemployment rate sits well below the 4.1% national figure, but a labor force that shrank by roughly 68,000 people since early 2025 suggests nonmetropolitan areas are recording fewer workers.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Virginia unemployment rate", "value": "3.6%", "context": "vs 4.1% national rate, Sept. 2026"}, {"label": "Labor force contraction", "value": "-68,000", "context": "since early 2025, statewide"}, {"label": "Projected statewide job loss, 2026", "value": "-18,050 jobs", "context": "2nd consecutive year of net decline"}, {"label": "Labor force participation rate", "value": "62.7%", "context": "down 0.1pp month-over-month, Sept. 2026"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Low unemployment here reflects a shrinking workforce.", "body": "Virginia's labor force contracted by about 68,000 people since early 2025, a trend consistent with retirement and out-migration in rural counties. A declining denominator can mechanically lower the unemployment rate even as the underlying economy weakens."}, {"headline": "Statewide job losses are concentrated outside nonmetropolitan areas, but rural counties absorb the demographic fallout.", "body": "Professional services lost roughly 9,500 jobs statewide through mid-2026, concentrated in metro centers, while rural Virginia's long-term employment decline since 2008 continues independent of that cycle. Two distinct forces \u2014 urban white-collar contraction and rural structural outmigration \u2014 are compounding each other."}, {"headline": "Construction and retail gains offer a rare bright spot against the broader contraction.", "body": "Construction added 2,800 jobs statewide in the first half of 2026 with retail up 4,500 over the same period, even as Virginia projects an overall 18,050-job net loss for the year. These sectors may offer a more reliable gauge of ground-level business activity in nonmetropolitan counties than the statewide unemployment headline."}, {"headline": "Wage data for this specific region remains unavailable \u2014 a methodological gap worth flagging to readers.", "body": "No county-level or regional wage series currently exists for the VA Nonmetropolitan Area as a distinct BLS-tracked geography; Virginia Works reports by workforce region (Shenandoah Valley, Southwest Virginia, Crater Area) rather than a single nonmetro aggregate. Any commentary on rural Virginia wage-vs-inflation dynamics should be sourced directly to those specific regional boards."}], "local_conditions": "Virginia's nonmetropolitan counties operate within a statewide labor market where unemployment held at 3.6% in September \u2014 well below the 4.1% national rate \u2014 but that figure masks a labor force that shrank by roughly 4,160 people in a single month and nearly 68,000 since early 2025, consistent with retirement and out-migration. Rural Virginia's long-running structural contraction, an aging workforce, and the state's second consecutive year of net job losses (a projected 18,050-job decline in 2026) point to a local economy where low unemployment reflects fewer people working or looking.", "implications": "Commerce and economic development leaders evaluating expansion or investment in nonmetropolitan Virginia should treat the low headline unemployment rate with caution \u2014 it is a labor-supply story as much as a demand story, and a shrinking available workforce can constrain growth even when the jobless rate looks favorable on paper. Government economists tracking policy-relevant indicators will want labor force participation and net migration data alongside unemployment, since the latter alone currently overstates local economic health. Current conditions suggest reviewing county-level labor force participation trends before citing statewide figures as evidence of rural economic momentum.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Watch Virginia Works' October release for labor force participation \u2014 it fell to 62.7% in September, and a further decline would reinforce the supply-contraction story over a demand-recovery one."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Regional workforce boards (Southwest Virginia, Shenandoah Valley, Crater Area) typically lag the statewide release by several weeks; their county-level breakdowns will be the first real test of whether rural areas are diverging from or tracking the statewide 2026 job-loss trend."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Manufacturing led Virginia's WARN filings this year (15 notices, 2,115 employees) \u2014 disproportionately relevant to rural counties with manufacturing bases. A continued pace into November would signal the contraction is broadening beyond the metro-centered professional services losses."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Minimum wage rises to $13.75 effective January 1, 2027. Nonmetropolitan employers with thinner margins may feel this adjustment more acutely than urban counterparts, worth tracking through business-climate surveys in the next two reporting cycles."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24901.0, "metro_p50": 27862.0, "metro_p75": 29120.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25168.0, "metro_p50": 28597.0, "metro_p75": 30160.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31557.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 40581.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59113.0, "metro_p50": 81575.0, "metro_p75": 92500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28361.0, "metro_p50": 31601.4, "metro_p75": 34258.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33162.5, "metro_p50": 38075.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57200.0, "metro_p50": 70500.4, "metro_p75": 75988.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31720.0, "metro_p50": 39104.0, "metro_p75": 44928.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32654.0, "metro_p50": 36751.0, "metro_p75": 40560.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28066.0, "metro_p50": 29724.0, "metro_p75": 31369.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32889.0, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 42885.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32943.0, "metro_p50": 39998.0, "metro_p75": 45610.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56689.0, "metro_p50": 67500.0, "metro_p75": 73840.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 85277.75, "metro_p50": 99446.0, "metro_p75": 107426.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 108316.0, "metro_p50": 135295.0, "metro_p75": 152695.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 99772.0, "metro_p50": 133054.0, "metro_p75": 146794.25, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58056.0, "metro_p50": 71779.4, "metro_p75": 82519.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 76981.5, "metro_p50": 98040.0, "metro_p75": 110791.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56546.0, "metro_p50": 69743.0, "metro_p75": 78178.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 46493.75, "metro_p50": 64565.0, "metro_p75": 75195.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 63043.5, "metro_p50": 83500.0, "metro_p75": 100000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34314.5, "metro_p50": 59280.4, "metro_p75": 64908.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62500.0, "metro_p50": 95004.8, "metro_p75": 122506.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 54050.0, "metro_p50": 72500.0, "metro_p75": 77500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 82121.0, "metro_p50": 97105.0, "metro_p75": 107103.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 58240.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 93983.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 36462.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 46124.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 130893.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 92787.5, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 101519.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 76432.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 32453.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 67254.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "Virginia Works", "source_url": null, "statement": "Virginia unemployment held at 3.6% in September 2026"}, {"source_name": "Weldon Cooper Center / Virginia Works", "source_url": null, "statement": "Virginia labor force shrank ~4,160 in September, ~68,000 since early 2025"}, {"source_name": "Virginia Works", "source_url": null, "statement": "Virginia projected to lose ~18,050 jobs in 2026, second consecutive contraction year"}, {"source_name": "Virginia Works", "source_url": null, "statement": "Construction added 2,800 jobs, retail added 4,500 jobs in H1 2026"}, {"source_name": "Virginia WARN Act tracker", "source_url": null, "statement": "Manufacturing led Virginia WARN filings with 15 notices affecting 2,115 workers"}, {"source_name": "Virginia HB 1 (enacted April 8, 2026)", "source_url": null, "statement": "Virginia minimum wage rises to $13.75 effective January 1, 2027"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "va-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "va-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "va-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:31:45.464855+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/va-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/va-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}