{"schema_version": 1, "id": "va-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 504, "label": "VA NONMETROPOLITAN AREA", "slug": "va-nonmetropolitan-area"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:44:13.690383+00:00", "headline": "Nonmetro Virginia's low jobless rate hides a shrinking workforce.", "headline_summary": "Virginia's 3.6% unemployment rate sits well below the 4.1% national figure, but labor force participation has fallen to a 10-year low of 62.8% and the state's civilian labor force has shrunk by roughly 68,000 people since early 2025.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Virginia unemployment rate", "value": "3.6%", "context": "vs 4.1% national rate, August 2026"}, {"label": "Labor force participation", "value": "62.8%", "context": "10-year low, down 0.2 pts in one month"}, {"label": "Labor force decline since early 2025", "value": "~68,000 people", "context": "Attributed to retirement, out-migration"}, {"label": "Average weekly wage growth", "value": "4.0-4.1% YoY", "context": "vs 2.5-3.0% national wage growth"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Low unemployment is masking a shrinking labor pool.", "body": "Virginia's 3.6% unemployment rate looks strong against the 4.1% national rate, but a 68,000-person labor force decline since early 2025 means the low rate partly reflects fewer people searching for work, not stronger absorption. For nonmetro counties with older populations and persistent out-migration, this is the more consequential number for assessing long-run economic capacity than the headline rate itself."}, {"headline": "Wage growth outpacing inflation offers a genuine bright spot.", "body": "Virginia's 4.0-4.1% average weekly wage growth exceeds both the national CPI trend and national wage growth (2.5-3.0%), suggesting real purchasing power gains for workers who remain employed statewide. That divergence matters most in nonmetro counties where wages already trail the national average, as it narrows \u2014 rather than widens \u2014 the gap with urban Virginia and national benchmarks."}, {"headline": "Skilled trades and health care show the clearest hiring tension.", "body": "Metro-level advertised pay for registered nurses (up significantly), HVAC technicians (up significantly), and electricians (up significantly) point to genuine scarcity in hands-on, place-based occupations that cannot be filled remotely. For nonmetro economic development officials, this is a clearer signal of real demand than white-collar postings, which are softer both locally and nationally."}, {"headline": "Manufacturing WARN activity bears close watching in rural counties.", "body": "Manufacturing accounts for the largest share of Virginia's recent WARN notices (14 filings, 1,936 workers) including the Owens & Minor closure in Toano affecting 419 workers. Nonmetro areas carry disproportionate manufacturing employment share, making this sector's layoff trend more locally consequential than its weight in statewide job counts would suggest."}], "local_conditions": "Virginia's nonmetropolitan counties sit inside a statewide labor market where headline unemployment looks favorable (3.6% in August) but total employment remains 37,700 jobs below year-ago levels and labor force participation has fallen to a 10-year low of 62.8%, with the Commonwealth's civilian labor force shrinking by roughly 68,000 people since early 2025 through retirement and out-migration. Rural and nonmetro counties \u2014 which already report average weekly wages below the national average in 116 of 121 smaller Virginia jurisdictions \u2014 are more exposed to this labor-force contraction than booming urban corridors, even as statewide wage growth (4.0\u20134.1% year-over-year) continues to outpace national wage growth of 2.5-3.0%.", "implications": "Shrinking labor supply in nonmetro Virginia, rather than weak demand, appears to be the defining constraint on local economic activity \u2014 a dynamic that affects commercial investment timing, public-sector service capacity, and workforce availability more than it affects wage budgets. Advertised wage growth outpacing national figures in several roles (registered nurses, HVAC technicians, electricians) is consistent with structural scarcity in trades and health care rather than cyclical demand strength, which matters for how local development officials frame workforce readiness to prospective employers. Current conditions suggest commerce leaders evaluating site-selection or expansion pitches should factor labor force participation trends, not just unemployment rate, into any readiness assessment they present to outside investors or relocating employers.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected data release", "body": "BLS publishes September state and metro-area unemployment data on October 20, 2026, which will be the first chance to see whether Virginia's labor force decline accelerated or stabilized. Commerce leaders making fourth-quarter investment or budget projections should treat current figures as provisional until that release."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Virginia's civilian labor force contraction, driven partly by federal workforce retirements and out-migration, has been concentrated in Northern Virginia metros (Arlington, Alexandria, Fairfax) but the downstream effects \u2014 reduced consumer spending, slower household formation \u2014 may extend into nonmetro labor markets that supply commuting or satellite workers to those regions."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "UVA's Weldon Cooper Center projects a statewide loss of roughly 18,050 jobs for 2026, the second consecutive annual decline, driven by weak hiring rather than layoffs. Watch whether nonmetro counties see proportional softness in job postings over the next two months, which would confirm the slowdown is broad-based rather than concentrated in urban professional services."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Virginia's minimum wage rises to $13.75 on January 1, 2027, affecting entry-level and service-sector pay floors statewide, including nonmetro retail, food service, and hospitality employers already reporting flat-to-declining advertised pay in several of those roles. Local commerce organizations should track whether this accelerates any shift toward automation or hour reductions in exposed sectors ahead of the increase."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24715.0, "metro_p50": 27862.0, "metro_p75": 29802.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25142.0, "metro_p50": 28027.2, "metro_p75": 30048.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31029.5, "metro_p50": 36468.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58065.0, "metro_p50": 79980.8, "metro_p75": 90868.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28360.0, "metro_p50": 31811.0, "metro_p75": 34461.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33016.75, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 40560.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57125.0, "metro_p50": 69680.0, "metro_p75": 72800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31411.0, "metro_p50": 38092.0, "metro_p75": 44707.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32749.0, "metro_p50": 37404.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28493.0, "metro_p50": 29724.0, "metro_p75": 31200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32412.0, "metro_p50": 38480.0, "metro_p75": 42640.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 39632.0, "metro_p75": 45101.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57200.0, "metro_p50": 67500.0, "metro_p75": 74734.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 85535.0, "metro_p50": 100371.0, "metro_p75": 108989.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 108316.0, "metro_p50": 137000.0, "metro_p75": 154067.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 99151.0, "metro_p50": 135409.0, "metro_p75": 150369.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57936.0, "metro_p50": 70519.6, "metro_p75": 80888.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 76500.0, "metro_p50": 99458.0, "metro_p75": 110000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57214.0, "metro_p50": 72800.0, "metro_p75": 82533.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 48544.0, "metro_p50": 64564.0, "metro_p75": 74465.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 61592.0, "metro_p50": 84853.4, "metro_p75": 100000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34320.0, "metro_p50": 59093.0, "metro_p75": 64848.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60976.75, "metro_p50": 94429.8, "metro_p75": 119935.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 53000.0, "metro_p50": 72500.0, "metro_p75": 77500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 81852.0, "metro_p50": 97535.0, "metro_p75": 109137.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 58375.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 93984.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 38480.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 47235.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 128531.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 110281.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 100171.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 75391.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 32463.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 69160.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "va-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "va-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "va-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T14:37:25.201914+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/va-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/va-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}