{"schema_version": 1, "id": "utica-rome-ny-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 510, "label": "Utica-Rome, NY MSA", "slug": "utica-rome-ny-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "restaurant_industry", "slug": "restaurant-industry", "label": "Restaurant Industry"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:17:23.791009+00:00", "headline": "Utica restaurant pay splits: managers up, frontline flat.", "headline_summary": "Restaurant Manager/GM pay climbed to a $65,439 metro median while Server and Line Cook pay held flat, even as metro unemployment sits at 4.3% and local manufacturing wages compete directly for entry-level talent.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Oneida County unemployment", "value": "4.3%", "context": "August 2026, matching NY statewide rate"}, {"label": "Restaurant Manager/GM pay", "value": "$65,439", "context": "Metro median, up moderately vs. $59,724 national"}, {"label": "Catering Manager pay", "value": "$41,372", "context": "Down significantly, below $50,076 national median"}, {"label": "Restaurant sector turnover", "value": "~80%", "context": "National annual rate, up from 72% pre-pandemic"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Management pay is moving, frontline pay is not.", "body": "Restaurant Manager/GM median climbed to $65,439 (up moderately) while Server and Line Cook held flat. Operators appear to be prioritizing retention at the management layer while leaving frontline compensation exposed to the metro's 78-80% turnover baseline."}, {"headline": "Crew pay gains outpace the category nationally.", "body": "Crew median rose to $34,320 locally (up moderately) versus a stable national figure of $30,066. Metro-level tightness in entry-level labor \u2014 evidenced by competing $18-19/hour manufacturing wages in Clayville \u2014 may be forcing faster adjustment at the bottom of the restaurant pay scale than the national trend shows."}, {"headline": "Catering Manager pay decline signals demand softness.", "body": "Catering Manager median fell significantly to $41,372, below the national median of $50,076. A steep local drop alongside a national decline is consistent with softening event and banquet volume as an ongoing market trend, worth confirming against booking volume before resetting pay bands."}, {"headline": "Tipped-wage rule changes widen the compliance landscape operators must track.", "body": "DOL's October withdrawal of the federal 80/20 rule loosens side-work pay requirements nationally, but New York's $11.35 cash wage with $5.65 tip credit stays state-governed and shifts to inflation-indexing in 2027. Metro operators should confirm that local tipped-wage obligations remain fully in effect regardless of federal guidance changes."}], "local_conditions": "Oneida County's unemployment rate held at 4.3% in August, tracking the statewide rate and reflecting a metro labor pool that remains tight despite modest upward drift from year-ago levels. Healthcare and manufacturing continue to absorb available talent at wages well above the metro's $13.59 average hiring rate, pulling entry-level and frontline candidates away from restaurant roles that compete on similar pay bands.", "implications": "Metro restaurant managers and GMs are seeing advertised pay climb (median $65,439, up moderately) while server and line cook pay sit flat \u2014 a divergence that suggests operators are protecting management retention while frontline roles absorb turnover costs through hours and scheduling adjustments, with base pay held steady. With national restaurant turnover near 80% and BLS projecting faster growth in cook demand than server demand, back-of-house wage compression relative to the broader local labor market (foundry work at $18\u201319/hour) creates acute line cook flight risk. Consider reviewing line cook and crew pay against adjacent manufacturing and healthcare support wages locally, alongside restaurant-sector benchmarks.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "New York's minimum wage freeze provision, triggered by statewide job losses through July, holds the floor at $17.00 (downstate) and $16.00 (upstate) for now \u2014 but Governor Hochul has pledged workarounds. Watch for state-level action that could reset wage floors outside the normal review cycle."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Line cook pay in the metro sits flat at $38,480 against a national backdrop where BLS projects cook demand to grow six times faster than waiter demand through 2035. Expect continued recruiting difficulty for back-of-house roles even as frontline headcount needs stabilize."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Healthcare and manufacturing employers in the metro are advertising wages well above the restaurant sector's entry-level pay, including mental health roles at $90,000+ and foundry work at $18-19/hour. Monitor whether this pulls crew and server candidates further from hospitality into adjacent sectors heading into the holiday hiring push."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Statewide inflation-indexing of the minimum wage begins in 2027, removing the predictability operators have relied on for labor-cost forecasting. Early 2027 planning cycles should build in a wage-escalation scenario to account for this change."}], "roles": [{"role": "Assistant Restaurant Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36823.0, "metro_p50": 41034.2, "metro_p75": 44204.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39211.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Catering Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34540.0, "metro_p50": 41372.0, "metro_p75": 48880.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 50076.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Crew", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29328.75, "metro_p50": 34320.0, "metro_p75": 35134.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 30066.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Line Cook", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 38480.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 37421.4, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Restaurant Manager/General Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 50591.0, "metro_p50": 65438.6, "metro_p75": 76681.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 59724.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Server", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30068.0, "metro_p50": 36168.0, "metro_p75": 38480.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 35024.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Shift Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31622.0, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 36660.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33024.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [{"source_name": "New York State Department of Labor", "source_url": null, "statement": "Oneida County unemployment rate was 4.3% in August 2026"}, {"source_name": "Restaurant industry labor research", "source_url": null, "statement": "Restaurant annual turnover near 80%, up from 72% pre-pandemic"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "BLS projects cooks to grow 12% from 2025-2035 vs. 2% for waiters"}, {"source_name": "U.S. Department of Labor", "source_url": null, "statement": "DOL withdrew federal 80/20 tipped wage rule in October 2026"}, {"source_name": "New York State Department of Labor", "source_url": null, "statement": "NY minimum wage frozen due to employment off-ramp trigger; inflation-indexing begins 2027"}, {"source_name": "New York State Department of Labor", "source_url": null, "statement": "NYC/Long Island/Westchester tipped cash wage $11.35 with $5.65 tip credit"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "utica-rome-ny-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.html", "pdf": "utica-rome-ny-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:31:43.623933+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/utica-rome-ny-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/utica-rome-ny-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.pdf"}