{"schema_version": 1, "id": "ut-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 386, "label": "UT NONMETROPOLITAN AREA", "slug": "ut-nonmetropolitan-area"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:44:00.460611+00:00", "headline": "Rural Utah counties diverge sharply as statewide averages mask local strain.", "headline_summary": "Rich County unemployment sits at 6.2% versus 3.6% in Uintah, while a $12.7 million northern Utah government budget shortfall and a 723-worker Tyson Fresh Meats WARN notice point to spillover risk reaching nonmetro labor pools.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Rich County unemployment", "value": "6.2%", "context": "vs 3.6% Uintah County, 3.5% statewide"}, {"label": "Largest 2026 Utah WARN notice", "value": "723 workers", "context": "Tyson Fresh Meats, Eagle Mountain, Aug 2026"}, {"label": "Northern Utah public-sector job loss", "value": "1,090 jobs", "context": "Tied to $12.7M budget shortfall"}, {"label": "Utah real average weekly wage", "value": "-2.4% YoY", "context": "$1,195/week, July 2026, inflation-adjusted"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Nonmetro Utah is not one labor market \u2014 it's several.", "body": "County unemployment ranges from 3.6% in Uintah to 6.2% in Rich, nearly double, reflecting dependence on single-industry or single-employer economies. Statewide averages offer little guidance for assessing conditions in any one nonmetro county."}, {"headline": "Manufacturing layoffs in adjacent counties test nonmetro resilience.", "body": "The single largest 2026 Utah WARN notice, 723 workers at Tyson Fresh Meats in Eagle Mountain, sits near several nonmetro labor pools that may supply commuting workers. Watching whether displaced workers surface in nonmetro job-seeker data over coming weeks is a more useful signal than the statewide layoff count alone."}, {"headline": "Public-sector contraction reaches past metro borders.", "body": "A $12.7 million northern Utah government budget shortfall drove a 1,090-job decline in public employment, a sector nonmetro counties often depend on disproportionately for stable, year-round payrolls. Continued softness here would remove one of the few historically steady income sources in thinner rural labor markets."}, {"headline": "State-level wage softness complicates the local growth narrative.", "body": "Utah's average weekly wage fell 2.4% year-over-year in inflation-adjusted terms even as low unemployment persists, a divergence that likely plays out unevenly across nonmetro counties with limited high-wage sector presence. Local purchasing power may be under more pressure than the headline unemployment figure suggests."}], "local_conditions": "Rural Utah's nonmetro counties show wide dispersion this month, with Rich County unemployment at 6.2% against Sanpete's 3.7% and Uintah's 3.6%, a spread that reflects the outsized role individual resource, agriculture, and tourism employers play in small county labor pools. Statewide forces are shaping conditions from above: professional/business services and healthcare gains concentrate in urban corridors while a $12.7 million northern Utah government budget shortfall and manufacturing WARN activity, including a 723-worker Tyson Fresh Meats notice in Eagle Mountain, signal that public-sector and manufacturing softness is reaching beyond metro boundaries into adjacent nonmetro labor markets.", "implications": "Wide unemployment variance across individual nonmetro counties means county-level conditions, not a single statewide average, should anchor any read on local business climate or expansion timing. Manufacturing and public-sector WARN activity concentrated in nearby metro counties carries spillover risk for nonmetro commuting populations and local consumer spending, even where a specific county's unemployment rate looks stable. Commerce leaders and economic development officials should consider tracking county-specific Department of Workforce Services releases rather than relying on statewide 3.5% figures, which can mask meaningful local divergence.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Rich County's 6.2% unemployment rate is a significant outlier; watch whether county-level DWS updates over the next two months show stabilization or further drift, which would indicate whether this reflects seasonal tourism/agriculture patterns or a structural shift."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Manufacturing WARN notices, led by the Eagle Mountain Tyson Fresh Meats filing, concentrate in counties adjacent to nonmetro labor pools. Track whether displaced manufacturing workers register in nonmetro unemployment claims in October and November."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Northern Utah's $12.7 million government budget shortfall has already cut 1,090 public-sector jobs; further state or local budget actions this fall could extend the pressure into nonmetro counties that rely on government employment as a stability anchor."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "National wage growth has slipped to 3.0% against 3.4% inflation, the weakest pace since 2021. If this gap persists into Utah's county-level wage data releases, it would mark the first real test of whether low unemployment alone can sustain nonmetro consumer spending."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25972.0, "metro_p50": 34000.0, "metro_p75": 40089.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25020.0, "metro_p50": 29684.0, "metro_p75": 31366.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31672.0, "metro_p50": 37390.0, "metro_p75": 39967.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58114.0, "metro_p50": 81576.0, "metro_p75": 91000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28204.0, "metro_p50": 32396.4, "metro_p75": 35392.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34320.0, "metro_p50": 37601.0, "metro_p75": 39880.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55917.0, "metro_p50": 70241.0, "metro_p75": 78424.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30835.0, "metro_p50": 35905.0, "metro_p75": 38802.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33966.0, "metro_p50": 38925.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27829.5, "metro_p50": 32594.4, "metro_p75": 36982.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 38480.0, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29725.5, "metro_p50": 39461.0, "metro_p75": 44785.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58798.0, "metro_p50": 64719.0, "metro_p75": 72800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 79040.0, "metro_p50": 90854.0, "metro_p75": 99972.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 118167.0, "metro_p50": 153627.0, "metro_p75": 170609.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 99248.0, "metro_p50": 146471.0, "metro_p75": 159248.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59290.0, "metro_p50": 71489.0, "metro_p75": 79596.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 72992.0, "metro_p50": 96387.6, "metro_p75": 102804.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 51446.25, "metro_p50": 82705.0, "metro_p75": 88925.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 43369.0, "metro_p50": 58031.0, "metro_p75": 70334.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 78593.0, "metro_p50": 92976.2, "metro_p75": 96733.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 49658.0, "metro_p50": 61469.0, "metro_p75": 65000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62500.0, "metro_p50": 95000.0, "metro_p75": 116785.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 46118.0, "metro_p50": 54301.2, "metro_p75": 55000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 83536.0, "metro_p50": 98649.0, "metro_p75": 111261.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 88080.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 107703.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 77902.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 69847.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 126233.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 110700.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 90151.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 69060.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 39000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 66994.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "ut-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "ut-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "ut-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T14:37:21.467073+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/ut-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/ut-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}