{"schema_version": 1, "id": "tyler-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 337, "label": "Tyler, TX MSA", "slug": "tyler-tx-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:43:56.162458+00:00", "headline": "Tyler unemployment rises as investment pipeline stays active.", "headline_summary": "Smith County unemployment climbed from 3.8% to 4.5% and Tyler MSA nonfarm employment dipped 200 positions in September, even as YellaWood, Amazon, and a 280-acre business park signal continued capital commitment to the metro.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Tyler MSA unemployment rate", "value": "4.2%", "context": "Up from recent readings; Texas statewide at 4.0%"}, {"label": "Smith County unemployment", "value": "4.5%", "context": "Up from 3.8% prior reading"}, {"label": "Tyler MSA annual job growth", "value": "1.4%", "context": "vs Texas 1.1% statewide annual growth"}, {"label": "Monthly nonfarm employment change", "value": "-200 jobs", "context": "Following months of steady ~100/month gains"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Tyler's unemployment rise outpaces the state's trajectory.", "body": "Smith County's jump from 3.8% to 4.5% unemployment is sharper than the statewide move from 3.9% to 4.0%, suggesting local softening is not simply tracking Texas-wide trends. Government and commerce leaders should treat this as a metro-specific signal worth independent monitoring, not noise within a stable state picture."}, {"headline": "Job growth and monthly employment are moving in opposite directions.", "body": "Annual job growth of 1.4% coexists with a 200-position monthly decline, a pattern consistent with a plateau following a growth run rather than sustained expansion. This divergence matters for anyone using year-over-year figures alone to judge current momentum."}, {"headline": "Named-employer investment continues despite softer headline numbers.", "body": "YellaWood and Amazon's recent moves into Smith County, plus the Economic Development Council's 280-acre business park build-out, indicate capital commitments are still flowing even as current employment counts cool. That combination \u2014 investment pipeline up, near-term headcount flat to down \u2014 is typical of a transition period rather than a downturn."}, {"headline": "Wage divergence across sectors complicates a single metro narrative.", "body": "Manufacturing and healthcare advertised pay (Manufacturing Production Worker up significantly, Registered Nurse up significantly) moved opposite warehouse and delivery roles (both down), echoing the national split between hands-on and white-collar segments. Local economic health reads differently depending on which sector a commerce leader or policymaker is watching."}], "local_conditions": "Tyler MSA unemployment climbed to 4.2% in September with Smith County rising from 3.8% to 4.5%, while nonfarm employment slipped by 200 positions month-over-month even as the metro still posted 1.4% annual job growth driven by healthcare, manufacturing, and distribution expansion. Recent facility moves by YellaWood and Amazon, alongside 280-plus acres of new business-park development, signal longer-horizon investment even as the near-term employment trend cools.", "implications": "Rising local unemployment alongside slower monthly job counts points to a labor market loosening faster than the state average, which should ease immediate hiring friction for employers but also suggests softer consumer demand locally as more residents compete for fewer net new positions. Commerce leaders evaluating expansion or relocation decisions should weigh the metro's available land and labor against this softening momentum rather than assume the healthcare- and logistics-driven growth story of 2025 continues unchanged. Consider reviewing local workforce participation and sector-level job counts over the next quarter before committing capital tied to assumptions of continued tight-labor conditions.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Smith County's unemployment increase from 3.8% to 4.5% is recent and should be checked against October TWC releases to determine whether it reflects a durable trend or a one-month statistical swing."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Whether the 280-acre business park development attracts confirmed tenants in coming weeks will offer a clearer read on whether current investment momentum (YellaWood, Amazon) translates into broader metro employment gains or remains concentrated in a few named projects."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Distribution and manufacturing wage softness locally (Warehouse/Fulfillment and Delivery Driver both down) alongside national WARN activity concentrated in transportation and logistics warrants monitoring for whether Tyler's distribution-center employers (Target Distribution Center, Amazon) see any reduction in posted positions."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "National wage growth sliding to 3.0% against 3.4% inflation puts regional purchasing power at risk; watch whether Tyler's advertised pay trends \u2014 currently mixed, with healthcare and manufacturing up but retail and distribution down \u2014 begin tracking that national real-wage erosion."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22880.0, "metro_p50": 27578.6, "metro_p75": 32258.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22880.0, "metro_p50": 25800.8, "metro_p75": 27040.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29250.0, "metro_p50": 31734.0, "metro_p75": 34320.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58075.0, "metro_p50": 80600.0, "metro_p75": 91000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28760.0, "metro_p50": 33729.8, "metro_p75": 38480.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31130.0, "metro_p50": 33280.0, "metro_p75": 35360.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60910.0, "metro_p50": 71010.4, "metro_p75": 72618.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31660.0, "metro_p50": 38467.6, "metro_p75": 44262.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28923.0, "metro_p50": 35159.2, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28080.0, "metro_p50": 31200.0, "metro_p75": 31200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30667.0, "metro_p50": 34320.0, "metro_p75": 38685.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28666.0, "metro_p50": 36400.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 47646.0, "metro_p50": 57132.0, "metro_p75": 59280.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 79269.0, "metro_p50": 95312.0, "metro_p75": 105406.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 92073.0, "metro_p50": 129858.0, "metro_p75": 131795.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 96034.0, "metro_p50": 108494.0, "metro_p75": 131124.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55500.0, "metro_p50": 65000.0, "metro_p75": 70000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 72922.0, "metro_p50": 93297.6, "metro_p75": 101911.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 45977.0, "metro_p50": 67471.0, "metro_p75": 77311.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37068.5, "metro_p50": 61938.0, "metro_p75": 63104.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 70000.0, "metro_p50": 83711.8, "metro_p75": 98390.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27040.0, "metro_p50": 46177.4, "metro_p75": 53389.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54500.75, "metro_p50": 71318.8, "metro_p75": 86871.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 48368.0, "metro_p50": 70236.8, "metro_p75": 81507.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 74996.0, "metro_p50": 80063.0, "metro_p75": 87804.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 54559.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 82500.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 34320.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 65549.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 45344.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 48514.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 71084.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 75218.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 31408.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 67273.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "tyler-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "tyler-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "tyler-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T14:37:19.658937+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/tyler-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/tyler-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}