{"schema_version": 1, "id": "tx-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 332, "label": "TX NONMETROPOLITAN AREA", "slug": "tx-nonmetropolitan-area"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T08:07:15.234883+00:00", "headline": "Nonmetro Texas pay splits sharply along trades versus retail lines.", "headline_summary": "Electrician and HVAC technician pay rose significantly in nonmetro Texas this month while retail and food service pay declined, against a backdrop of Texas labor force growth stalling at just 3,600 net participants statewide over the past year.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Texas unemployment rate", "value": "4.4%", "context": "vs 4.1% national, up from 4.1% year ago"}, {"label": "Texas 12-month labor force growth", "value": "3,600 net participants", "context": "Stalled despite 154,300 jobs added statewide"}, {"label": "Texas annual wage growth", "value": "4.5%", "context": "vs 3.1% national (Dallas Fed, August 2026)"}, {"label": "Texas WARN notices YTD", "value": "17,285 workers", "context": "Down 35% from 2025, signals resilience"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Skilled trades pay signals a tightening local capacity constraint.", "body": "Electrician and HVAC technician advertised pay both rose significantly this month, mirroring the statewide pattern of manufacturing and energy-linked construction demand outpacing available skilled labor. For economic development officials, this points to trades training capacity as a binding constraint on how fast new projects can staff up locally."}, {"headline": "Retail and food service wage softness tracks a cooling consumer segment.", "body": "Retail sales associate, retail cashier, and food service worker pay all moved down this month against stable national medians, a gap that suggests local consumer-facing demand is softer than the broader state and national picture. Commerce leaders watching foot traffic and retail investment should treat this as an early-read indicator."}, {"headline": "Nursing and operations pay gains point to institutional demand.", "body": "Registered nurse pay rose significantly alongside operations manager and account manager categories, consistent with national healthcare hiring strength and Texas's broader services expansion. This pattern typically reflects durable institutional demand (hospitals, logistics, services firms) that persists beyond a short-term seasonal spike."}, {"headline": "Labor force stagnation is the structural story beneath the headline numbers.", "body": "Texas added only 3,600 net labor force participants over the past year even as the state led the nation in job growth, a gap that constrains how much nonmetro employers can scale without wage competition. Government economists should watch whether labor force participation stabilizes or continues to lag job creation, since that gap is what ultimately caps regional output."}], "local_conditions": "Nonmetropolitan Texas counties continue to absorb the state's broader labor force stall, with Texas adding just 3,600 net participants statewide over the past year even as manufacturing, energy, and AI-related construction activity concentrate hiring demand in rural and small-town economies. Metro advertised pay data shows a split economy taking shape locally: skilled trades (electricians up significantly, HVAC technicians up significantly) and professional roles (operations manager, account manager, registered nurse all up significantly) are pulling ahead, while retail, food service, and manufacturing production pay are moving down, a divergence consistent with Texas's 4.4% unemployment rate and slowing 0.8% year-to-date job growth.", "implications": "Wage divergence between skilled trades/professional roles and frontline retail and production work signals where local economic capacity is actually expanding versus where consumer-facing sectors are softening, a distinction that matters for commerce leaders weighing expansion timing and for economic development officials targeting incentives. The pattern is consistent with statewide labor force stagnation pushing wages up fastest where skills are scarce, while softer consumer demand pressures retail and food service pay downward. Local chambers and development corporations may want to evaluate whether workforce pipeline investment aligns with the trades and healthcare categories showing sustained wage strength over sectors where advertised pay is declining.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Texas labor force growth has nearly stalled (15,800 added in September, just 3,600 over twelve months); watch whether nonmetro counties see any reversal as this directly caps how fast local employers and public services can expand."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Dallas Fed's October manufacturing employment index fell to 11.6 from 15.1, a deceleration signal worth tracking given manufacturing's role as the strongest nonmetro wage driver this year."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Texas WARN filings are down 35% year over year statewide, a sign of labor market resilience; any uptick in nonmetro filings over the next two months would mark a meaningful reversal worth flagging to local officials."}, {"category": "Policy factor to monitor", "body": "Reduced immigrant labor supply is reported to be boosting demand for temporary and contract workers statewide; nonmetro agriculture- and construction-dependent counties are likely to feel this first, and the facts here warrant tracking without attaching policy judgment."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 20761.0, "metro_p50": 25024.0, "metro_p75": 27743.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 21840.0, "metro_p50": 24960.0, "metro_p75": 27560.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29120.0, "metro_p50": 34423.0, "metro_p75": 38220.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59480.75, "metro_p50": 80600.0, "metro_p75": 92000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25813.0, "metro_p50": 29561.0, "metro_p75": 30936.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28712.0, "metro_p50": 34320.0, "metro_p75": 38072.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57760.0, "metro_p50": 70853.0, "metro_p75": 77840.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30153.0, "metro_p50": 34210.6, "metro_p75": 38156.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 37062.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25244.5, "metro_p50": 28163.0, "metro_p75": 30512.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30403.75, "metro_p50": 34531.0, "metro_p75": 38821.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29878.0, "metro_p50": 38403.0, "metro_p75": 42684.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58293.5, "metro_p50": 70730.0, "metro_p75": 76000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 78991.0, "metro_p50": 94081.8, "metro_p75": 103069.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 115400.75, "metro_p50": 153924.0, "metro_p75": 170000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 99179.0, "metro_p50": 138261.4, "metro_p75": 157546.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56906.0, "metro_p50": 67875.8, "metro_p75": 75631.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 69780.75, "metro_p50": 85800.0, "metro_p75": 97692.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 53743.0, "metro_p50": 70937.0, "metro_p75": 81786.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 44864.0, "metro_p50": 59474.0, "metro_p75": 72569.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 50000.0, "metro_p50": 96551.2, "metro_p75": 110346.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 38397.0, "metro_p50": 54515.0, "metro_p75": 60650.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 65000.0, "metro_p50": 97918.8, "metro_p75": 121875.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 48368.0, "metro_p50": 70872.6, "metro_p75": 85260.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 77502.25, "metro_p50": 94089.0, "metro_p75": 106790.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 70000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 100608.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 35453.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 63378.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 125137.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 90220.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 81620.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 68000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 30001.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 63179.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "Dallas Fed / Texas Workforce Commission", "source_url": null, "statement": "Texas labor force added only 3,600 net participants over past year"}, {"source_name": "Texas Workforce Commission", "source_url": null, "statement": "Texas unemployment rate at 4.4% in September 2026"}, {"source_name": "Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas", "source_url": null, "statement": "Texas wage growth 4.5% year-over-year vs 3.1% national"}, {"source_name": "Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas", "source_url": null, "statement": "Dallas Fed manufacturing employment index fell to 11.6 from 15.1"}, {"source_name": "Texas Workforce Commission WARN tracker", "source_url": null, "statement": "Texas WARN notices down 35% from 2025, totaling 17,285 workers"}, {"source_name": "Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas", "source_url": null, "statement": "Reduced immigrant labor supply boosting demand for temporary workers"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "tx-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "tx-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "tx-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:31:36.887984+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/tx-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/tx-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}