{"schema_version": 1, "id": "tx-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 332, "label": "TX NONMETROPOLITAN AREA", "slug": "tx-nonmetropolitan-area"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:43:32.550591+00:00", "headline": "Rural Texas economy runs tight on workers, not demand.", "headline_summary": "Statewide, 1.2 unemployed workers exist per advertised vacancy and manufacturing wages are up 4.8% year-over-year, even as official nonmetro-specific data remains unpublished.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "County unemployment range", "value": "1.2%\u20139.4%", "context": "Loving County vs Starr County, TX"}, {"label": "Statewide unemployed-per-vacancy ratio", "value": "1.2 to 1", "context": "96,189 more unemployed than openings (TWC)"}, {"label": "Texas manufacturing wage growth", "value": "4.8%", "context": "Strongest since Dec 2023, Dallas Fed"}, {"label": "Texas WARN notices YTD 2026", "value": "91 filings / 14,592 workers", "context": "45% fewer affected workers than 2025"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Nonmetro Texas lacks its own data, but county dispersion tells the story.", "body": "Unemployment spans from 1.2% in Loving County to 9.4% in Starr County, meaning any single 'nonmetro' figure masks real variation in local economic health. Commerce leaders should treat county-level Texas Workforce Commission figures, not statewide averages, as the credible local read."}, {"headline": "Construction and manufacturing carry the state's rural growth story.", "body": "Texas construction grew 5.1% year-over-year, 2.1 points above the national pace, while manufacturing wages rose 4.8% \u2014 the strongest pace since December 2023. For nonmetro counties tied to energy infrastructure and ag-adjacent manufacturing, this suggests continued capital investment activity rather than a slowdown."}, {"headline": "Labor supply, not demand, looks like the binding constraint.", "body": "Statewide, 1.2 unemployed workers exist for every advertised vacancy, and nearly half of manufacturers cite lack of available applicants as a hiring barrier. This points to a structurally tight labor pool in rural labor sheds that predates any single month's hiring numbers."}, {"headline": "Wage gains in skilled trades appear to be outrunning inflation, for now.", "body": "Texas private wages rose 3.9% year-over-year against a national CPI pace near 3.4%, with manufacturing wages accelerating. That margin is narrow enough that a local cost-of-living uptick or national inflation reacceleration could erase it quickly."}], "local_conditions": "Rural Texas labor markets are holding closer to the state's 4.0% rate than the national 4.2% reading, with county-level unemployment ranging from 1.2% in Loving County to 9.4% in Starr County, reflecting a dispersed, energy- and agriculture-influenced economy rather than a single metro trend. Statewide supply-demand conditions remain tight \u2014 1.2 unemployed workers per advertised vacancy with 96,189 more unemployed than openings \u2014 while construction (up 5.1% year-over-year statewide) and manufacturing wage gains (up 4.8%) suggest nonmetro Texas is sharing in Texas's broader blue-collar momentum even as official metro-level data for this area remains unpublished by BLS.", "implications": "Wide county-level dispersion in unemployment across nonmetro Texas means local economic conditions vary sharply even within a single workforce region, complicating any single read on business climate or expansion timing. Statewide wage growth of 3.9% year-over-year in sectors like manufacturing is outpacing the 3.4% national inflation rate, a signal that nonmetro employers competing for skilled trades labor are still absorbing real cost pressure even without official local wage data to confirm the pass-through. Commerce leaders should consider cross-referencing county-level Texas Workforce Commission data for their specific service area rather than relying on metro-wide averages when assessing local business investment conditions.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Data gap to monitor", "body": "No dedicated BLS metro series exists for 'TX Nonmetropolitan Area,' so commerce leaders and economists should track county-level Texas Workforce Commission releases and the 26-county Panhandle Workforce Development Area report as the closest available regional proxy."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Panhandle-region unemployment rose from 3.2% to 3.5% in May with a 1,298-worker employment decline \u2014 worth watching whether this pattern spreads to other nonmetro workforce development areas or remains isolated."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Texas WARN notices total just 91 statewide in 2026, concentrated in transportation/logistics and manufacturing; a rise in nonmetro-adjacent filings would be a leading signal of softening in rural supply chains tied to those sectors."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Dallas Fed's upward revision of 2026 Texas job growth to 2.0% from 1.1%, driven by data center and AI-related activity, raises the question of whether rural counties capture any of that investment or remain bystanders to urban-corridor growth."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 21543.0, "metro_p50": 26259.0, "metro_p75": 29161.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 21725.0, "metro_p50": 24834.0, "metro_p75": 27463.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29011.0, "metro_p50": 33936.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58046.0, "metro_p50": 79905.0, "metro_p75": 92435.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26031.0, "metro_p50": 30040.0, "metro_p75": 31774.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28607.0, "metro_p50": 33808.8, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57603.0, "metro_p50": 71345.0, "metro_p75": 75847.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30080.0, "metro_p50": 33597.4, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 37148.4, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25763.5, "metro_p50": 28153.4, "metro_p75": 30514.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30387.0, "metro_p50": 34320.0, "metro_p75": 38480.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29730.0, "metro_p50": 38403.0, "metro_p75": 42640.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59280.0, "metro_p50": 70562.8, "metro_p75": 76000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 78811.0, "metro_p50": 93604.6, "metro_p75": 103010.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 115000.0, "metro_p50": 153583.0, "metro_p75": 169603.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 99288.0, "metro_p50": 140613.0, "metro_p75": 158658.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57288.0, "metro_p50": 70140.4, "metro_p75": 78000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 70807.0, "metro_p50": 87702.0, "metro_p75": 98818.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 53935.0, "metro_p50": 73614.0, "metro_p75": 83265.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 45710.5, "metro_p50": 60672.0, "metro_p75": 73607.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 50000.0, "metro_p50": 98296.0, "metro_p75": 117897.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 39580.0, "metro_p50": 55317.0, "metro_p75": 61008.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 64250.0, "metro_p50": 97500.0, "metro_p75": 120144.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 48368.0, "metro_p50": 70236.8, "metro_p75": 81507.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 78600.0, "metro_p50": 95637.0, "metro_p75": 108198.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 71963.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 99545.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 40560.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 62439.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 125295.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 99001.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 82958.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 67567.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 30001.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 66683.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "tx-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "tx-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "tx-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T14:37:17.901521+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/tx-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/tx-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}