Rural Texas economy runs tight on workers, not demand.
1.2%–9.4%
County unemployment range
Loving County vs Starr County, TX
1.2 to 1
Statewide unemployed-per-vacancy ratio
96,189 more unemployed than openings (TWC)
4.8%
Texas manufacturing wage growth
Strongest since Dec 2023, Dallas Fed
91 filings / 14,592 workers
Texas WARN notices YTD 2026
45% fewer affected workers than 2025
This Month's Takeaways
01
Nonmetro Texas lacks its own data, but county dispersion tells the story.
Unemployment spans from 1.2% in Loving County to 9.4% in Starr County, meaning any single 'nonmetro' figure masks real variation in local economic health. Commerce leaders should treat county-level Texas Workforce Commission figures, not statewide averages, as the credible local read.
02
Construction and manufacturing carry the state's rural growth story.
Texas construction grew 5.1% year-over-year, 2.1 points above the national pace, while manufacturing wages rose 4.8% — the strongest pace since December 2023. For nonmetro counties tied to energy infrastructure and ag-adjacent manufacturing, this suggests continued capital investment activity rather than a slowdown.
03
Labor supply, not demand, looks like the binding constraint.
Statewide, 1.2 unemployed workers exist for every advertised vacancy, and nearly half of manufacturers cite lack of available applicants as a hiring barrier. This points to a structurally tight labor pool in rural labor sheds that predates any single month's hiring numbers.
04
Wage gains in skilled trades appear to be outrunning inflation, for now.
Texas private wages rose 3.9% year-over-year against a national CPI pace near 3.4%, with manufacturing wages accelerating. That margin is narrow enough that a local cost-of-living uptick or national inflation reacceleration could erase it quickly.
Local Economic Conditions
Rural Texas labor markets are holding closer to the state's 4.0% rate than the national 4.2% reading, with county-level unemployment ranging from 1.2% in Loving County to 9.4% in Starr County, reflecting a dispersed, energy- and agriculture-influenced economy rather than a single metro trend. Statewide supply-demand conditions remain tight — 1.2 unemployed workers per advertised vacancy with 96,189 more unemployed than openings — while construction (up 5.1% year-over-year statewide) and manufacturing wage gains (up 4.8%) suggest nonmetro Texas is sharing in Texas's broader blue-collar momentum even as official metro-level data for this area remains unpublished by BLS.
Open Threads in the Data
Wide county-level dispersion in unemployment across nonmetro Texas means local economic conditions vary sharply even within a single workforce region, complicating any single read on business climate or expansion timing. Statewide wage growth of 3.9% year-over-year in sectors like manufacturing is outpacing the 3.4% national inflation rate, a signal that nonmetro employers competing for skilled trades labor are still absorbing real cost pressure even without official local wage data to confirm the pass-through. Commerce leaders should consider cross-referencing county-level Texas Workforce Commission data for their specific service area rather than relying on metro-wide averages when assessing local business investment conditions.
Advertised Pay Indicators · WageScape Benchmark 25 Jobs
Job postings data for the TX NONMETROPOLITAN AREA metro — median advertised pay, its recent trend, and the number of active postings behind each figure. Jobs are grouped for readability and are not the same as the 10 sector classifications on the next page. For additional job detail contact WageScape.
Retail Trade
| Retail Sales Associate |
$26,259 |
↓ Moderate decline |
19,244 |
| Retail Cashier |
$24,834 |
↓ Moderate decline |
8,789 |
Transportation & Warehousing
| Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate |
$33,936 |
→ Stable |
2,567 |
| CDL Truck Driver |
$79,905 |
→ Stable |
34,036 |
| Delivery Driver |
$30,040 |
→ Stable |
23,752 |
| Warehouse Manager |
$70,237 |
↓ Significant decline |
93 |
Construction
| Construction Laborer |
$33,809 |
→ Stable |
868 |
Construction/Skilled Trades
| Electrician |
$71,345 |
↑ Significant increase |
4,427 |
| HVAC Technician |
$70,563 |
↑ Significant increase |
707 |
Manufacturing
| Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler |
$33,597 |
↓ Moderate decline |
1,765 |
Cross-Sector
| Customer Service Representative |
$37,148 |
↑ Moderate increase |
4,568 |
| Operations Manager |
$98,296 |
↑ Significant increase |
44 |
Leisure & Hospitality
| Food Service Worker |
$28,153 |
↓ Moderate decline |
1,175 |
Healthcare
| Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide |
$34,320 |
→ Stable |
9,816 |
| Registered Nurse |
$93,605 |
↑ Significant increase |
42,888 |
Admin/Office Support
| Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk |
$38,403 |
→ Stable |
4,867 |
Information/Technology
| Software Engineer |
$153,583 |
↑ Moderate increase |
12,632 |
| Data Engineer |
$140,613 |
↑ Moderate increase |
4,826 |
Professional & Business Services
| Accountant |
$70,140 |
↑ Moderate increase |
5,813 |
| HR Generalist/Manager |
$73,614 |
↑ Significant increase |
1,018 |
| Marketing Specialist |
$60,672 |
↑ Moderate increase |
1,044 |
| Business Analyst |
$95,637 |
↑ Moderate increase |
3,729 |
Finance & Insurance
| Financial Analyst |
$87,702 |
→ Stable |
1,761 |
Government/Education
| Elementary/Secondary School Teacher |
$55,317 |
↑ Significant increase |
21,782 |
Cross-Sector Sales
| Account Manager |
$97,500 |
↑ Significant increase |
8,265 |
Industry Snapshot · TX NONMETROPOLITAN AREA
Advertised pay and job-posting trends across the whole metro economy, rolled up by employer industry — not just the bellwether roles above.
| Sector |
Median Pay Change |
Job Postings Change |
| Construction |
↑ +12.5% |
↓ −15.9% |
| Manufacturing |
↑ +21.7% |
↓ −19.1% |
| Retail Trade |
↑ +11.2% |
↓ −11.1% |
| Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities |
↑ +12.6% |
↓ −28.6% |
| Information |
↑ +28.5% |
↓ −49.4% |
| Financial Activities |
↑ +16.9% |
↓ −32.2% |
| Professional & Business Services |
↑ +14.0% |
↓ −18.1% |
| Education & Health Services |
↑ +21.6% |
↓ −25.1% |
| Leisure & Hospitality |
→ −1.1% |
↓ −33.9% |
| Government |
↑ +23.8% |
↓ −45.3% |
Looking Ahead · Next 30–60 Days
Data gap to monitor
No dedicated BLS metro series exists for 'TX Nonmetropolitan Area,' so commerce leaders and economists should track county-level Texas Workforce Commission releases and the 26-county Panhandle Workforce Development Area report as the closest available regional proxy.
Early indicator
Panhandle-region unemployment rose from 3.2% to 3.5% in May with a 1,298-worker employment decline — worth watching whether this pattern spreads to other nonmetro workforce development areas or remains isolated.
Worth watching
Texas WARN notices total just 91 statewide in 2026, concentrated in transportation/logistics and manufacturing; a rise in nonmetro-adjacent filings would be a leading signal of softening in rural supply chains tied to those sectors.
Potential inflection point
Dallas Fed's upward revision of 2026 Texas job growth to 2.0% from 1.1%, driven by data center and AI-related activity, raises the question of whether rural counties capture any of that investment or remain bystanders to urban-corridor growth.
Sources & Methodology
Pay and hiring data provided by WageScape. See every source cited in this report, with links →
Advertised pay reflects the pay ranges employers publish in active job postings in this metro, not survey or payroll data. Pay trends compare the current period with the prior period for the same metro and role. Sector figures group postings by the employer's industry classification; sectors with limited classified postings are marked as such rather than estimated. This briefing is independent of, and complements, official statistics from the BLS and state labor market information offices.
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