{"schema_version": 1, "id": "tx-nonmetropolitan-area/finance/2026-10", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 332, "label": "TX NONMETROPOLITAN AREA", "slug": "tx-nonmetropolitan-area"}, "focus_area": {"key": "finance", "slug": "finance", "label": "Finance"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T05:56:35.945573+00:00", "headline": "Nonmetro Texas tax and FP&A pay falls as national rates climb.", "headline_summary": "Metro Tax Specialist pay dropped to $48,615 against a national median of $69,556, while FP&A Manager pay fell to $115,713 even as the national figure rose to $130,000.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Texas unemployment rate", "value": "4.4%", "context": "vs 4.1% national rate, Sept 2026"}, {"label": "Tax Specialist pay gap", "value": "$48,615 vs $69,556", "context": "Metro down significantly vs national up significantly"}, {"label": "FP&A Manager pay gap", "value": "$115,713 vs $130,000", "context": "Metro down moderately vs national up moderately"}, {"label": "Texas job growth forecast", "value": "<1% for 2026", "context": "Downgraded by Dallas Fed on labor supply limits"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Nonmetro tax talent is priced well below where the market is moving.", "body": "Metro Tax Specialist pay fell significantly to $48,615 while the national median climbed to $69,556 \u2014 a gap of over $20,000. Current conditions suggest nonmetro employers risk losing tax and compliance talent to remote or metro-based opportunities offering national-level pay."}, {"headline": "FP&A Manager pay softened locally while national demand firmed.", "body": "Metro FP&A Manager pay dropped moderately to $115,713 against a national median rising to $130,000. That divergence may signal nonmetro finance teams are deprioritizing senior planning roles even as CFO turnover nationally sits at 18.3%, a mismatch worth revisiting before a planning-cycle vacancy forces a reactive hire."}, {"headline": "Credit Analyst is the one role gaining ground locally.", "body": "Metro Credit Analyst pay rose moderately to $71,044, nearly matching the national median of $71,397. That convergence is consistent with tightening nonmetro labor supply pushing up pay for roles tied directly to lending and risk decisions, worth watching as a leading indicator for other analyst-level roles."}, {"headline": "Contract staffing trends may hit nonmetro audit readiness harder.", "body": "70% of finance and accounting leaders nationally are increasing contract talent use in H2 2026, a shift that depends on a deep local contractor bench. Thinner nonmetro labor markets may make this strategy less viable, pushing more reliance on FTE retention during close and audit periods."}], "local_conditions": "Nonmetro Texas labor supply remains constrained by the Dallas Fed's downgraded statewide employment forecast of under 1% growth for 2026, driven largely by sharply reduced immigration into rural and agricultural labor pools. Manufacturing and professional services expansion statewide, paired with 92% of Texas construction firms reporting difficulty finding qualified workers, is consistent with similar hiring friction in nonmetro finance and operations support roles where candidate pools are already thin.", "implications": "Thinner nonmetro candidate pools mean Finance leaders competing for accounting and FP&A talent face longer time-to-fill windows than their metro counterparts, raising the cost of vacancy during close and audit cycles. Declining advertised pay for Tax Specialist ($48,615, down significantly) and FP&A Manager ($115,713, down moderately) locally, against national gains in both roles, suggests nonmetro employers may be under-pricing scarce technical talent relative to where the national market is heading. Consider reviewing nonmetro pay positioning for tax and FP&A roles against national trendlines alongside regional history, given how quickly those roles could become retention risks.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Watch whether Dallas Fed's downgraded 2026 Texas employment growth forecast (under 1%) translates into further nonmetro labor tightening through year-end, particularly in roles competing with manufacturing and construction for the same shrinking labor pool."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Tax Specialist and FP&A Manager pay gaps against national medians could widen further if Q4 national wage growth in finance roles continues outpacing nonmetro adjustments, raising retention exposure heading into close season."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Texas HB 149 penalties ($10,000\u2013$200,000 per violation) for AI governance failures take effect this year; nonmetro Finance teams using AI in forecasting or FP&A models should confirm compliance review timelines before year-end audit prep."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Statewide WARN filings are down 35% year-over-year, but any nonmetro-specific notices in agriculture, energy or manufacturing would be a leading signal for local candidate pool shifts worth monitoring for opportunistic hiring."}], "roles": [{"role": "Controller", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56804.0, "metro_p50": 103917.8, "metro_p75": 113720.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 115420.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Senior Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 74067.75, "metro_p50": 87359.2, "metro_p75": 90000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 87731.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 69780.75, "metro_p50": 85800.0, "metro_p75": 97692.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Billing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34568.0, "metro_p50": 41860.0, "metro_p75": 49512.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 49000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Tax Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36110.0, "metro_p50": 48615.0, "metro_p75": 61922.25, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 69556.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Credit Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62834.0, "metro_p50": 71044.0, "metro_p75": 75004.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71397.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "FP&A Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 101393.0, "metro_p50": 115713.0, "metro_p75": 127500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 130000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [{"source_name": "Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas", "source_url": null, "statement": "Dallas Fed downgraded 2026 Texas employment growth forecast to under 1%"}, {"source_name": "Texas labor market research notes", "source_url": null, "statement": "92% of Texas construction firms report difficulty finding qualified workers"}, {"source_name": "Crist|Kolder Associates", "source_url": null, "statement": "CFO turnover projected at 18.3% in 2026"}, {"source_name": "AFP FP&A Forum", "source_url": null, "statement": "70% of finance and accounting leaders increasing contract talent use in H2 2026"}, {"source_name": "Texas Workforce Commission", "source_url": null, "statement": "Texas unemployment rate at 4.4% in September 2026"}, {"source_name": "Texas HB 149 (Responsible AI Governance Act)", "source_url": null, "statement": "Texas HB 149 AI governance penalties range from $10,000 to $200,000 per violation"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "tx-nonmetropolitan-area/finance/2026-10.html", "pdf": "tx-nonmetropolitan-area/finance/2026-10.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:31:35.516343+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/tx-nonmetropolitan-area/finance/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/tx-nonmetropolitan-area/finance/2026-10.pdf"}