{"schema_version": 1, "id": "tulsa-ok-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 378, "label": "Tulsa, OK MSA", "slug": "tulsa-ok-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T08:06:34.742616+00:00", "headline": "Tulsa unemployment climbs as job growth stalls near flat.", "headline_summary": "Tulsa's unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in Q3 2026 from 3.4% a year earlier even as nonfarm employment grew just 0.4%, a split that points to labor force growth outpacing job creation amid an absence of outright job losses.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Tulsa unemployment rate", "value": "4.3%", "context": "Up from 3.4% in Q3 2025"}, {"label": "Tulsa nonfarm employment growth", "value": "+0.4%", "context": "484,450 jobs, Q3 2026 vs year earlier"}, {"label": "Oklahoma unemployment rate", "value": "4.2%", "context": "32nd nationally, Sept. 2026 (BLS)"}, {"label": "National unemployment rate", "value": "4.1%", "context": "Stable since March 2026 (BLS)"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Unemployment rose faster than payrolls grew.", "body": "Tulsa's jobless rate increased nine-tenths of a point year-over-year while nonfarm employment grew only 0.4%, a combination that typically reflects labor force entrants outpacing job creation. That distinction matters for how officials characterize the local economy publicly \u2014 it is a participation story more than a contraction story."}, {"headline": "Technical-role pay pulled back locally while national figures held.", "body": "Data Engineer advertised pay fell significantly in Tulsa even as the national median stayed flat, and Software Engineer and Business Analyst pay softened locally against stable national benchmarks. This divergence may reflect a smaller, more concentrated local talent pool for these roles, a distinct dynamic from a broader regional retreat in professional services demand."}, {"headline": "Capital investment and labor-market cooling are running in parallel.", "body": "Construction on the $1 billion east Tulsa industrial park continues alongside a state employment growth projection of 8.2% through 2032, even as current-quarter hiring growth sits near flat. Commerce leaders should treat these as separate time horizons \u2014 near-term softness does not necessarily undercut the metro's medium-term growth case."}, {"headline": "Skilled trades pay is outperforming the metro average.", "body": "Electrician advertised pay rose moderately in Tulsa to $72,800, nearly matching the national median, while Manufacturing Production Worker pay also moved up moderately. That combination is consistent with sustained demand tied to industrial and construction activity even as white-collar pay signals cool."}], "local_conditions": "Tulsa's unemployment rate climbed to 4.3% in Q3 2026, up nine-tenths of a point from 3.4% a year earlier, even as nonfarm employment edged up 0.4% to 484,450 jobs \u2014 a pattern consistent with a labor force absorbing new entrants faster than employers are adding positions. Momentum remains uneven across sectors: a $1 billion east Tulsa industrial park broke ground this year and state projections point to 8.2% metro job growth through 2032, while advertised pay for several office and technical roles \u2014 Software Engineer, Data Engineer, Business Analyst, Warehouse Manager \u2014 moved down locally even as national figures held flat or firmer.", "implications": "Rising unemployment alongside flat-to-positive job counts suggests labor supply is loosening faster than demand is cooling, which typically signals more available talent and less wage pressure for expansion-minded employers even as it raises questions about consumer spending capacity. Divergence between metro and national pay trends in analytical and technical occupations \u2014 Data Engineer down significantly locally against a stable national median \u2014 points to a local concentration effect worth distinguishing from a broader regional retreat before drawing conclusions about sector health. Commerce leaders evaluating site-selection or expansion announcements should weigh the labor-supply loosening against the capital commitments already underway, such as the east Tulsa industrial park, since the two signals point in different directions on near-term tightness.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Watch whether Tulsa's unemployment rate stabilizes near 4.3% or continues climbing toward the 4.2% state and 4.1% national figures converging from below \u2014 a plateau would support a participation-driven read over a demand-driven one."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Oklahoma's declining graduate retention rate \u2014 76.5% in 2025, down from 87% in 2023 \u2014 bears monitoring for Tulsa specifically, since outmigration of recent graduates would compound labor force effects already visible in the unemployment data."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Progress on the east Tulsa industrial park and any announced tenants over the next 60 days will be the clearest test of whether capital commitments translate into measurable payroll growth in subsequent quarters."}, {"category": "Expected", "body": "National healthcare and manufacturing hiring strength should show up in Tulsa's sector mix given the metro's existing base in both; local Registered Nurse pay already rose moderately to $93,239, a figure worth tracking against statewide wage trends."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22880.0, "metro_p50": 27469.0, "metro_p75": 31200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 23175.0, "metro_p50": 26875.0, "metro_p75": 28080.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29905.0, "metro_p50": 34320.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 53181.75, "metro_p50": 77220.0, "metro_p75": 88400.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27801.0, "metro_p50": 33140.0, "metro_p75": 38480.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32733.0, "metro_p50": 38480.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59582.0, "metro_p50": 72800.0, "metro_p75": 80860.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31848.0, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 42640.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29732.0, "metro_p50": 34830.0, "metro_p75": 37332.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24953.0, "metro_p50": 28238.0, "metro_p75": 29693.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30686.5, "metro_p50": 34320.0, "metro_p75": 36665.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31550.0, "metro_p50": 39144.0, "metro_p75": 42657.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57705.0, "metro_p50": 62506.0, "metro_p75": 67600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 82559.0, "metro_p50": 93238.8, "metro_p75": 101831.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 87135.5, "metro_p50": 123924.4, "metro_p75": 138313.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 82347.0, "metro_p50": 106152.2, "metro_p75": 122496.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56677.75, "metro_p50": 70000.0, "metro_p75": 77500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 71095.0, "metro_p50": 83234.0, "metro_p75": 88560.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 51047.5, "metro_p50": 65036.2, "metro_p75": 78727.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 44810.25, "metro_p50": 58815.0, "metro_p75": 67806.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 72500.0, "metro_p50": 72953.0, "metro_p75": 72953.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29120.0, "metro_p50": 44177.0, "metro_p75": 50253.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56036.0, "metro_p50": 80961.0, "metro_p75": 98500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 47714.0, "metro_p50": 54906.8, "metro_p75": 63437.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 75376.0, "metro_p50": 88404.0, "metro_p75": 98502.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 71162.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 70000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 34320.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 62782.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 53900.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 54318.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 63376.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 61201.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 32037.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 55797.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "tulsa-ok-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "tulsa-ok-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "tulsa-ok-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:31:32.803333+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/tulsa-ok-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/tulsa-ok-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}