{"schema_version": 1, "id": "tucson-az-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 340, "label": "Tucson, AZ MSA", "slug": "tucson-az-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T08:06:29.760042+00:00", "headline": "Tucson's labor market stalls while Phoenix pulls ahead.", "headline_summary": "Tucson unemployment held at 4.8% and payrolls sat 100 jobs below year-ago levels, while Pima County's 1.7% Q1 employment decline outpaced Maricopa County's 0.5% drop.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Tucson metro unemployment", "value": "4.8%", "context": "vs 4.9% Arizona, 4.1% national"}, {"label": "Tucson payroll change YoY", "value": "-100 jobs", "context": "Aug 2025 to Aug 2026, Phoenix grew"}, {"label": "Pima County employment, Q1 2026", "value": "-1.7%", "context": "vs -0.5% Maricopa County (QCEW)"}, {"label": "Tucson avg weekly wage", "value": "$1,332", "context": "vs $1,654 U.S. average, Q1 2026"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Tucson's payroll stagnation looks structural.", "body": "Nonfarm employment sat 100 jobs below year-ago levels through August after months of give-back following April's gains, a pattern distinct from Phoenix's continued growth. Demographic drag \u2014 retiring baby boomers and low net migration \u2014 appears to be a more durable constraint than any single sector's cycle."}, {"headline": "Government contraction breaks from the state's pattern.", "body": "Arizona government employment grew by 22,200 jobs month-over-month in September, yet Tucson's government sector fell 3.6% year-over-year \u2014 a divergence that matters given the metro's traditional reliance on public payroll as a stabilizing force. Commerce leaders tracking local fiscal health should watch whether this reflects county/city budget actions or data timing before drawing conclusions."}, {"headline": "Pima County underperforms Maricopa by a wide margin.", "body": "Q1 2026 QCEW data show Pima County employment down 1.7% against a 0.5% decline in Maricopa County, reinforcing that Tucson's drag is metro-specific. That gap is a relevant benchmark for any regional economic development pitch comparing Tucson's trajectory to Phoenix's."}, {"headline": "Wage gap with national average persists despite local gains.", "body": "Tucson's average weekly wage of $1,332 remains well below the U.S. average of $1,654 for Q1 2026, even as several advertised-pay categories \u2014 Operations Manager, Account Manager, Registered Nurse \u2014 show significant local increases. The divergence suggests wage growth is concentrated in specific occupations, with the metro's overall wage base still lagging."}], "local_conditions": "Tucson metro unemployment held at 4.8% in September, tracking just below Arizona's post-pandemic high of 4.9%, while nonfarm payrolls were effectively flat for the year, down 100 jobs from August 2025 to August 2026. Softness concentrates in Professional and Business Services (-4.0%), Government (-3.6%), and Construction (-3.4%) year-over-year, a pattern consistent with Pima County's broader lag behind Phoenix, where Q1 QCEW data showed Pima County contracting 1.7% against Maricopa's 0.5% decline.", "implications": "Flat payrolls alongside a three-month plateau in unemployment suggest Tucson's labor market has stabilized, which supports steady planning assumptions for commerce leaders weighing expansion timing against a still-soft regional backdrop. Government's 3.6% year-over-year pullback locally contrasts with the 22,200 jobs the sector added statewide in September, a divergence worth tracking given Tucson's historical reliance on public-sector payroll stability. Current conditions suggest monitoring whether Professional and Business Services softness reflects a national white-collar pullback reaching Tucson or a metro-specific pattern tied to the broader Pima County contraction.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Watch whether Tucson's government employment decline (-3.6% YoY) persists into Q4 reporting or reflects a one-time data anomaly, given the sector's history as a stabilizing force for the metro's labor base."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Arizona's labor force participation rate has declined for seven consecutive months to 59.9%; a comparable drop in Pima County's labor force would raise harder questions about workforce capacity for any employer or civic planner eyeing local expansion."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Professional and Business Services posted the steepest year-over-year decline among Tucson's major sectors (-4.0%); track whether this mirrors the national white-collar softness (information, financial activities) reported in October BLS data or signals a metro-specific pullback."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Construction employment fell 3.4% year-over-year in Tucson even as advertised pay for Construction Laborer and Electrician roles trended up moderately \u2014 a gap between hiring demand and wage signals worth monitoring as a read on project pipeline health."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28996.0, "metro_p50": 34216.0, "metro_p75": 37404.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28620.25, "metro_p50": 32240.0, "metro_p75": 34426.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31582.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 40560.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54600.0, "metro_p50": 77576.0, "metro_p75": 84000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31203.5, "metro_p50": 36400.0, "metro_p75": 40747.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32136.0, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 38730.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55752.0, "metro_p50": 68812.0, "metro_p75": 75877.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32284.0, "metro_p50": 38315.0, "metro_p75": 40434.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32240.0, "metro_p50": 37919.0, "metro_p75": 41500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30919.5, "metro_p50": 36982.0, "metro_p75": 40290.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35703.0, "metro_p50": 42640.0, "metro_p75": 45760.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33114.0, "metro_p50": 40676.0, "metro_p75": 44720.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57200.0, "metro_p50": 67576.0, "metro_p75": 70727.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 85654.0, "metro_p50": 105252.0, "metro_p75": 113714.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 111010.75, "metro_p50": 153047.0, "metro_p75": 167480.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 99175.0, "metro_p50": 143952.0, "metro_p75": 159248.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58877.25, "metro_p50": 69923.2, "metro_p75": 77510.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 74000.0, "metro_p50": 96734.6, "metro_p75": 102804.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 52125.0, "metro_p50": 79943.0, "metro_p75": 86013.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 43369.0, "metro_p50": 56843.8, "metro_p75": 69225.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 70257.0, "metro_p50": 100592.0, "metro_p75": 112476.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 45520.5, "metro_p50": 57756.0, "metro_p75": 63308.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 63945.0, "metro_p50": 94942.4, "metro_p75": 116620.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 48452.5, "metro_p50": 59500.0, "metro_p75": 64141.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 82789.5, "metro_p50": 98045.0, "metro_p75": 110528.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 78731.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "stable", "postings_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 100373.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 46696.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 62126.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 119800.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 95871.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 95031.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 72500.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "stable", "postings_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 37051.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 62883.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "tucson-az-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "tucson-az-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "tucson-az-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:31:30.663332+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/tucson-az-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/tucson-az-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}