{"schema_version": 1, "id": "tucson-az-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 340, "label": "Tucson, AZ MSA", "slug": "tucson-az-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:43:42.876733+00:00", "headline": "Tucson's labor force shrinks faster than its job count grows.", "headline_summary": "Pima County's civilian labor force dropped 3.7% year-over-year to 480,847 even as nonfarm payrolls edged up to 406,100, while Arizona's statewide unemployment held at a post-pandemic high of 4.9%.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Tucson civilian labor force", "value": "480,847", "context": "down 3.7% year-over-year, June 2026"}, {"label": "Tucson unemployment (NSA)", "value": "5.7%", "context": "up 1.1 pts year-over-year, vs 4.9% statewide"}, {"label": "Pima County wage growth", "value": "3.5%", "context": "Q3 2025 year-over-year, vs 4.61% AZ private sector"}, {"label": "Arizona labor force participation", "value": "59.9%", "context": "7th straight monthly decline, down 2.2 pts YoY"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Labor supply, not demand, is the real story here.", "body": "Civilian labor force fell 3.7% year-over-year to 480,847 even as payrolls modestly grew, consistent with demographic exit (retirements) and weak net migration rather than employer pullback. That distinction matters for anyone evaluating whether local market conditions reflect weak demand or a tightening supply base."}, {"headline": "Pima County underperformed the state on net job change.", "body": "Pima County recorded the largest year-over-year employment decline of any Arizona county between September 2024 and September 2025, even as statewide sectors like healthcare and professional services expanded. This divergence suggests metro-specific dynamics are not simply tracking the state narrative."}, {"headline": "Wage gains are outpacing the state's slower headline wage story.", "body": "Pima County wages rose 3.5% year-over-year as of Q3 2025, a figure that holds up reasonably against Arizona's 4.61% statewide private-sector wage growth and national real-wage stagnation. Local purchasing power appears more resilient than the state's rising unemployment rate alone would imply."}, {"headline": "Healthcare and business services remain the metro's stabilizing sectors.", "body": "Professional and Business Services, Private Education and Health Services, and Other Services produced the most significant over-the-year payroll gains through June. Continued concentration in these sectors may signal where metro economic resilience is most durable heading into year-end."}], "local_conditions": "Tucson's labor force contracted 3.7% year-over-year through June to 480,847, even as seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment edged up to 406,100 from 402,800 in January \u2014 a split consistent with retiring baby boomers and weak net migration shrinking available workers faster than employers are adding positions. Non-seasonally adjusted unemployment reached 5.7% in June, up 1.1 points year-over-year, tracking the statewide climb to 4.9% and suggesting the metro's labor market is cooling from the supply side rather than from collapsing demand.", "implications": "Professional & Business Services and Private Education and Health Services led Tucson's over-the-year payroll gains, while Pima County posted the state's largest employment decline (-0.5%) between September 2024 and September 2025 \u2014 a reminder that metro-level stability can mask sector-level divergence relevant to site-selection and investment timing. Shrinking labor force alongside modest payroll growth points to a market where expansion decisions hinge more on available workers than on cooling demand; current conditions suggest monitoring sector-specific job postings data before treating metro-wide headline numbers as evidence of broad-based softening or strength.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected data release", "body": "September 2026 BLS metro-level figures for Tucson have not yet posted as of this writing; June remains the most recent official read. Watch for the next Arizona OEO/BLS update to confirm whether the modest payroll gain through June persisted into the fall."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Arizona's labor force participation rate fell for a seventh straight month to 59.9%, a trend plausibly linked to Tucson's own 3.7% labor force contraction. Sustained participation declines limit the workforce available for expansion regardless of hiring intent."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Arizona certified its first federal Workforce Pell Grant training programs for healthcare and transportation in September, a potential supply-side offset to participation declines. Watch whether program enrollment shows up in Pima County health and logistics sector postings over the next two quarters."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "National wage growth slowed to 3.0% against 3.4% inflation in September, the weakest real-wage picture since 2021. Local wage data, which still looks stronger at 3.5% in Pima County, bears watching for whether it converges toward the national softening."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29095.0, "metro_p50": 34216.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28676.0, "metro_p50": 32638.4, "metro_p75": 34840.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31529.5, "metro_p50": 37439.2, "metro_p75": 39690.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 53716.0, "metro_p50": 75873.0, "metro_p75": 83200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 35114.0, "metro_p75": 39302.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31619.0, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 37800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55619.0, "metro_p50": 68599.0, "metro_p75": 74647.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32253.0, "metro_p50": 37606.0, "metro_p75": 40154.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32923.0, "metro_p50": 38567.0, "metro_p75": 42419.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30054.25, "metro_p50": 36982.0, "metro_p75": 40289.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35505.0, "metro_p50": 42640.0, "metro_p75": 45760.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32136.0, "metro_p50": 39994.4, "metro_p75": 43914.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57200.0, "metro_p50": 67576.0, "metro_p75": 70454.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 85000.0, "metro_p50": 104832.0, "metro_p75": 113828.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 112737.25, "metro_p50": 153048.0, "metro_p75": 168522.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 99196.0, "metro_p50": 145750.0, "metro_p75": 159248.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59557.0, "metro_p50": 71801.0, "metro_p75": 79599.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 74000.0, "metro_p50": 97549.0, "metro_p75": 103100.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 52958.75, "metro_p50": 82085.0, "metro_p75": 86878.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 44432.0, "metro_p50": 57871.2, "metro_p75": 70334.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 70470.0, "metro_p50": 94006.6, "metro_p75": 111033.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 46131.0, "metro_p50": 59076.8, "metro_p75": 63533.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62640.0, "metro_p50": 93458.6, "metro_p75": 115209.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 49127.0, "metro_p50": 59600.0, "metro_p75": 61192.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 83411.0, "metro_p50": 98600.0, "metro_p75": 111313.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 80000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 100933.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 56160.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 66975.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 121631.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 106884.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 93050.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 71964.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 37221.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 64626.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "tucson-az-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "tucson-az-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "tucson-az-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T14:37:12.585166+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/tucson-az-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/tucson-az-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}