{"schema_version": 1, "id": "topeka-ks-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-08", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 502, "label": "Topeka, KS MSA", "slug": "topeka-ks-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "restaurant_industry", "slug": "restaurant-industry", "label": "Restaurant Industry"}, "period": "2026-08", "public_after": "2026-08-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T16:31:23.011434+00:00", "headline": "Topeka wages climb while restaurant pay quietly falls.", "headline_summary": "Shawnee County average weekly wages rose 5.4% year-over-year \u2014 the fastest among Kansas's major counties \u2014 even as Topeka's advertised Crew and Shift Manager pay dropped significantly against a stable national market.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Shawnee County wage growth", "value": "5.4%", "context": "Fastest among KS major counties, YoY Q3 2025"}, {"label": "Shawnee County unemployment", "value": "3.4%", "context": "vs 3.8% Kansas statewide, August 2026"}, {"label": "State hospitality payrolls", "value": "-1,000 jobs", "context": "Kansas, August 2026, offsetting trade gains"}, {"label": "National restaurant hiring", "value": "+59,200 jobs", "context": "Largest monthly gain since Jan 2023"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Crew and Shift Manager pay is falling locally against a stable national market.", "body": "Metro advertised pay for Crew (-significant) and Shift Manager (-significant) is dropping even as national medians hold flat, a divergence that outpaces the modest statewide hospitality softening. This gap may leave Topeka operators exposed if seasonal Q4 hiring needs collide with a labor pool anchored to national wage expectations."}, {"headline": "Shawnee County wage growth is outpacing the hospitality sector it competes with.", "body": "County-wide average weekly wages rose 5.4% year-over-year, the fastest among Kansas's largest counties, while statewide leisure and hospitality employment contracted by 1,000 jobs in August. Restaurant operators are effectively bidding against faster-growing sectors like trade and transportation for the same tightening labor pool."}, {"headline": "Catering Manager pay strength suggests demand is shifting toward events and off-premise.", "body": "Metro Catering Manager advertised pay rose moderately to $44,720, bucking the metro's broader downward pay trend and outperforming even the stable national trend. Consider whether banquet, catering, and off-premise revenue lines merit dedicated compensation review separate from core front-of-house roles."}, {"headline": "Full-service recovery lag may concentrate turnover risk in back-of-house roles.", "body": "Full-service restaurant employment remains 3.6% below pre-pandemic levels nationally even as payrolls expand, and Line Cook advertised pay in Topeka is down moderately against a stable national figure. Operators leaning on full-service formats should weigh whether local pay compression is masking a harder-to-fill back-of-house pipeline."}], "local_conditions": "Shawnee County's labor market held tight in mid-2026, with unemployment near 3.4-3.5% and average weekly wages up 5.4% year-over-year \u2014 the strongest gain among Kansas's major counties \u2014 even as statewide leisure and hospitality payrolls shed 1,000 jobs in August. That divergence, tight local labor supply paired with sector-specific hospitality contraction, signals Topeka restaurant operators are competing for a shrinking pool of front-of-house and back-of-house talent against employers in higher-wage-growth industries like trade and transportation.", "implications": "Statewide leisure and hospitality job losses alongside continued wage growth in Shawnee County suggest Topeka operators face a cost-price squeeze: labor costs rising through market competition even as headcount softens, meaning labor-cost-as-percentage-of-revenue pressure isn't easing just because staffing plans moderate. With Kansas's $7.25 minimum and $2.13 tipped wage unchanged since 2009, advertised pay for Crew and Shift Manager roles locally is falling while national rates hold stable \u2014 a gap that may reflect softening local demand rather than genuine affordability, and one that could reverse quickly if hiring rebounds. Current conditions suggest reviewing whether pay reductions in entry-level and shift-supervisory roles are creating retention exposure ahead of Q4 seasonal staffing needs.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Statewide leisure and hospitality lost 1,000 jobs in August while trade, transportation and utilities gained 900 \u2014 watch whether Topeka restaurant workers are migrating to adjacent sectors offering steadier hours or faster wage growth."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "National restaurant payrolls jumped 59,200 in August, the largest single-month gain since January 2023, but only 49% of operators plan to add staff in 2026, down from 60% last year. Watch whether Topeka hiring activity tracks the national rebound or the more cautious staffing outlook."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Seven states now fully prohibit the tip credit and Florida's minimum wage reaches $15.00 on September 30 \u2014 Kansas retains its $2.13 tipped wage floor, but continued out-of-state policy shifts may sharpen recruiting competition for tipped talent willing to relocate or commute."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Shawnee County's 2.9% over-the-year employment growth, the strongest among Kansas's major counties, suggests broader labor demand may tighten further into Q4 seasonal hiring \u2014 a dynamic that could pressure Crew and Shift Manager pay back upward after this month's declines."}], "roles": [{"role": "Assistant Restaurant Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31081.0, "metro_p50": 38480.0, "metro_p75": 39299.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39000.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Catering Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 37440.0, "metro_p50": 44720.0, "metro_p75": 48194.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 51585.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Crew", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 21663.0, "metro_p50": 24658.0, "metro_p75": 27073.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 29791.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Line Cook", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27892.0, "metro_p50": 30230.0, "metro_p75": 33280.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 36702.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Restaurant Manager/General Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 45000.0, "metro_p50": 57500.0, "metro_p75": 70699.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 59762.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Server", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25275.0, "metro_p50": 30160.0, "metro_p75": 33636.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 34915.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Shift Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24091.0, "metro_p50": 27822.0, "metro_p75": 31577.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 32649.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "September 2026", "files": {"html": "topeka-ks-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-08.html", "pdf": "topeka-ks-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-08.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T16:36:14.696091+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/topeka-ks-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-08.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/topeka-ks-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-08.pdf"}