{"schema_version": 1, "id": "topeka-ks-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 502, "label": "Topeka, KS MSA", "slug": "topeka-ks-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T08:10:10.642648+00:00", "headline": "Topeka outgrows Kansas as statewide momentum cools.", "headline_summary": "Shawnee County employment grew 2.9% year-over-year and wages rose 5.3% in late 2025, even as Kansas lost 2,100 nonfarm jobs statewide in September and labor force participation slipped to 66.4%.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Shawnee County employment growth", "value": "+2.9% YoY", "context": "Largest gain among KS's 4 biggest counties (Sept 2024-25)"}, {"label": "Kansas statewide nonfarm payrolls", "value": "-2,100", "context": "September 2026 MoM, private sector down 2,300"}, {"label": "Shawnee County avg weekly wage growth", "value": "+5.3%", "context": "Q4 2025, largest among large KS counties"}, {"label": "Kansas labor force participation", "value": "66.4%", "context": "Down from prior month; still above US's 61.8%"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Shawnee County is growing while Kansas contracts.", "body": "County employment rose 2.9% year-over-year even as statewide nonfarm payrolls fell 2,100 jobs in September, the clearest sign yet that Topeka's local economy is decoupling from broader state softening. Commerce leaders should treat county-level data as the more reliable gauge of local conditions than statewide headlines this month."}, {"headline": "Wage gains lead the state, but the pay floor still lags national levels.", "body": "Shawnee County's 5.3% weekly wage increase topped all large Kansas counties, yet the $1,255 average remains modest compared with national benchmarks, and metro-specific advertised pay for roles like manufacturing production workers ($33,280, down significantly) and administrative assistants ($37,440, down) shows real softening beneath the headline wage strength. The divergence suggests gains are concentrated in specific sectors."}, {"headline": "Falling labor force participation is the quiet statewide risk.", "body": "Kansas participation dropped to 66.4% in September, consistent with national trends tied to retirements and slower workforce growth, even as Topeka's unemployment rate stays low. A shrinking labor pool can mask itself as a healthy unemployment rate while actually limiting the metro's capacity to support new business investment."}, {"headline": "Professional and business services carry the state's private-sector growth.", "body": "Kansas added 700 professional and business services jobs in September, the largest private-sector gain, while other services shed 1,400 \u2014 a pattern that, if mirrored in Topeka, suggests office-based and technical sectors are the metro's current growth engine. Local software engineer pay (up moderately to $163,443) and marketing specialist pay (up moderately) are consistent with that read."}], "local_conditions": "Shawnee County's labor market shows a split pattern this month: unemployment held near 3.4%-4.1% through mid-2026 while average weekly wages climbed 5.3% in the fourth quarter of 2025, the fastest gain among Kansas' large counties, even as statewide labor force participation slipped to 66.4% in September. Kansas lost 2,100 nonfarm jobs statewide in September on a 1,400-job drop in other services, but Shawnee County bucked the trend with 2.9% year-over-year employment growth, the strongest among the state's four largest counties, suggesting Topeka's local economy is outperforming broader state softening.", "implications": "Topeka's wage growth outpacing the state average, paired with continued local employment gains while Kansas overall contracts, points to a metro economy that is still absorbing demand while its surrounding region cools. Commerce leaders evaluating expansion or investment timing should weigh this local resilience against a statewide labor force participation decline that signals a shrinking available worker pool regardless of local demand strength; current conditions suggest monitoring whether Shawnee County's wage premium reflects durable sector strength or simply a tighter local labor supply.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected release", "body": "The Kansas Department of Labor publishes October 2026 state labor data on November 20, which will show whether Shawnee County's outperformance against statewide contraction continued into the fall or whether the gap narrowed."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Topeka's city budget process concludes in October with no layoffs planned, relying on position freezes \u2014 a signal of public-sector fiscal caution that commerce leaders should track for implications on local government spending and contracting."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Statewide labor force participation decline, if it extends to Shawnee County, could tighten available workforce even as local employment demand holds steady, a dynamic worth monitoring for its effect on local business expansion timelines."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Manufacturing production worker pay in the Topeka metro is down significantly ($33,280 vs. $39,520 nationally) while statewide Beige Book reporting shows manufacturers adding hours and overtime due to limited workers \u2014 watch whether this gap signals local wage compression or a shift in the metro's manufacturing composition."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 21650.5, "metro_p50": 26887.0, "metro_p75": 31200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 23988.0, "metro_p50": 25333.0, "metro_p75": 29120.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30160.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59769.25, "metro_p50": 78000.0, "metro_p75": 87500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28220.0, "metro_p50": 32086.0, "metro_p75": 36400.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28763.0, "metro_p50": 30264.0, "metro_p75": 35360.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56420.0, "metro_p50": 69659.0, "metro_p75": 76700.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 33280.0, "metro_p75": 35360.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30792.0, "metro_p50": 35876.0, "metro_p75": 37926.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26492.0, "metro_p50": 30049.0, "metro_p75": 30968.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 36400.0, "metro_p75": 39234.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32377.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 48918.0, "metro_p50": 60448.0, "metro_p75": 64480.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 77577.5, "metro_p50": 88643.0, "metro_p75": 99070.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 129933.0, "metro_p50": 163443.0, "metro_p75": 175594.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 102378.0, "metro_p50": 136795.0, "metro_p75": 150858.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54652.0, "metro_p50": 65769.0, "metro_p75": 69150.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 72450.0, "metro_p50": 100638.0, "metro_p75": 109810.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 53635.25, "metro_p50": 59107.6, "metro_p75": 65000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 46760.0, "metro_p50": 78290.0, "metro_p75": 89831.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 64375.0, "metro_p50": 75000.0, "metro_p75": 75295.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28600.0, "metro_p50": 49806.4, "metro_p75": 54276.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 76332.75, "metro_p50": 113769.2, "metro_p75": 140000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 63231.25, "metro_p50": 66655.0, "metro_p75": 67439.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 74596.5, "metro_p50": 87416.0, "metro_p75": 97561.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 55002.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 110978.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 42717.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 70000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 138428.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 96408.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 82013.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 55254.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 27893.5, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 59699.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Mountain-Plains Office)", "source_url": null, "statement": "Shawnee County employment grew 2.9% year-over-year, largest among KS's largest counties"}, {"source_name": "U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Shawnee County average weekly wage rose 5.3% in Q4 2025, reaching $1,255"}, {"source_name": "Kansas Department of Labor", "source_url": null, "statement": "Kansas nonfarm payrolls fell 2,100 in September 2026, private sector down 2,300"}, {"source_name": "Kansas Department of Labor / BLS", "source_url": null, "statement": "Kansas labor force participation rate fell to 66.4% in September 2026"}, {"source_name": "Kansas Department of Labor", "source_url": null, "statement": "KDOL to release October 2026 Kansas Labor Report on November 20"}, {"source_name": "WIBW", "source_url": null, "statement": "Topeka city budget process includes position freezes rather than layoffs"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "topeka-ks-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "topeka-ks-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "topeka-ks-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:31:26.362862+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/topeka-ks-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/topeka-ks-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}