{"schema_version": 1, "id": "topeka-ks-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 502, "label": "Topeka, KS MSA", "slug": "topeka-ks-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:43:59.050790+00:00", "headline": "Topeka's jobless rate climbs as core-county wages outpace the state.", "headline_summary": "Topeka's preliminary unemployment rate hit 5.0% in July, a point above the 4.1% national rate, even as Shawnee County logged the state's largest wage gain at 5.4%.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Topeka MSA unemployment rate", "value": "5.0%", "context": "Preliminary July 2026, vs 4.1% national, up from 4.6% in April"}, {"label": "Shawnee County wage growth", "value": "+5.4%", "context": "Q3 2025, largest among Kansas's four largest counties"}, {"label": "Kansas labor force participation", "value": "67.4%", "context": "April 2026, vs 61.8% U.S. rate, down 1% YoY statewide"}, {"label": "Kansas WARN notices (90-day)", "value": "0", "context": "As of Sept 25, 2026, vs 313,234 workers affected nationally"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Topeka's jobless rate is rising while core-county wages accelerate.", "body": "A 5.0% preliminary metro unemployment rate \u2014 up from 4.6% in April and well above the 4.1% national rate \u2014 sits alongside a 5.4% Shawnee County wage increase, the state's largest. That combination may suggest a bifurcated local market: softening in some sectors even as skilled or in-demand roles see genuine wage competition."}, {"headline": "Healthcare and skilled trades are pulling local wages upward.", "body": "Registered nurse pay rose significantly to a $87,472 metro median and HVAC technician pay rose significantly to $59,440, both outpacing broader metro wage trends. This tracks the national pattern of healthcare and hands-on trades outperforming white-collar and retail segments, with implications for which sectors are genuinely driving local economic activity."}, {"headline": "Retail and food-service pay softness points to consumer-facing strain.", "body": "Retail cashier pay fell moderately and food service worker pay fell significantly in the metro, both against stable national trends. Localized softness in consumer-facing wage data is consistent with the Indeed Hiring Lab's national read that real wages are no longer keeping pace with inflation, which may dampen discretionary local spending."}, {"headline": "Public-sector stability remains a load-bearing feature of the local economy.", "body": "State of Kansas employment (8,833 workers) and Topeka USD #501 (2,300) remain the metro's largest employers with no WARN filings reported in the last 90 days statewide as of late September. That stability contrasts with the national trend of a 216,000 government job decline over the past year, suggesting Topeka's public-sector base is currently insulated from the federal pullback."}], "local_conditions": "Topeka's preliminary unemployment rate climbed to 5.0% in July 2026, a full point above the national rate of 4.1% and up from 4.6% in April, even as Shawnee County \u2014 the metro's economic core \u2014 posted a 5.4% average weekly wage increase in Q3 2025, the largest among Kansas's four largest counties. Sector momentum is uneven: statewide manufacturing gains tied to Garmin, Honeywell, and Panasonic investment contrast with a Tenth District Beige Book report citing labor availability, not demand, as the binding constraint on regional business activity.", "implications": "Divergence between a softening metro unemployment rate and above-national wage growth in the metro's core county suggests a labor market that is tightening in specific occupational lanes \u2014 healthcare, skilled trades, software \u2014 while broader participation lags, a pattern consistent with Kansas's statewide 1% year-over-year decline in labor force participation. Commerce leaders weighing local expansion or investment should treat wage pressure in high-demand occupations (registered nurses up significantly to a $87,472 metro median, HVAC technicians up significantly) as a signal of real capacity constraints, not just inflation. Consider evaluating workforce-availability data by occupation before committing to expansion plans that assume slack labor supply exists broadly across the metro.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Watch whether Topeka's metro unemployment rate, last reported at a preliminary 5.0% for July, continues rising when August and September BLS figures post. A sustained climb above 5% would mark a clear divergence from the 4.1% national and 3.8% Kansas state rates worth tracking for its implications on local consumer demand."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Kansas labor force participation has declined 1% year-over-year even as the statewide rate (67.4% in April) still outpaces the national 61.8%. Continued erosion would narrow the available local workforce further, a constraint regional economic development groups should monitor alongside any shift in net migration."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Statewide WARN activity has been minimal \u2014 zero notices in the 90 days through late September \u2014 but national filings affecting over 313,000 workers nationally, concentrated in logistics, retail, and tech-adjacent sectors, warrant a local check for any spillover into Topeka's warehousing and distribution base."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "National wage growth has slipped to its slowest annual pace since May 2021 (3.0%) against 3.4% inflation, a reversal of the real-wage gains of the prior two years. If that gap persists into Topeka's Q4 wage data, it would be the first real erosion in local purchasing power in several years and a signal worth flagging for retail and commerce planning."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22159.0, "metro_p50": 27040.0, "metro_p75": 31200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24199.0, "metro_p50": 25150.0, "metro_p75": 28630.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30160.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 42640.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57871.0, "metro_p50": 76160.4, "metro_p75": 90500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28220.0, "metro_p50": 31974.0, "metro_p75": 33931.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28763.0, "metro_p50": 29538.0, "metro_p75": 33280.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56160.0, "metro_p50": 67623.0, "metro_p75": 74618.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 33280.0, "metro_p75": 35360.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31160.0, "metro_p50": 35677.4, "metro_p75": 37960.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26754.5, "metro_p50": 30049.0, "metro_p75": 30967.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33545.5, "metro_p50": 36400.0, "metro_p75": 39312.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32185.5, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 42423.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 50390.25, "metro_p50": 59440.4, "metro_p75": 63244.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 77723.0, "metro_p50": 87472.4, "metro_p75": 97911.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 128722.0, "metro_p50": 163828.0, "metro_p75": 175614.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 99220.0, "metro_p50": 130067.6, "metro_p75": 149158.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54127.5, "metro_p50": 64186.8, "metro_p75": 67901.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 72450.0, "metro_p50": 100667.0, "metro_p75": 110255.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54136.25, "metro_p50": 62345.6, "metro_p75": 65000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 46366.5, "metro_p50": 67897.2, "metro_p75": 79654.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 49925.0, "metro_p50": 73000.0, "metro_p75": 75000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28977.25, "metro_p50": 50484.4, "metro_p75": 54276.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 80000.0, "metro_p50": 113127.0, "metro_p75": 139108.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 66655.0, "metro_p50": 69791.0, "metro_p75": 78510.5, "metro_trend_direction": null, "metro_trend_magnitude": null, "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 74683.0, "metro_p50": 87080.0, "metro_p75": 96491.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 53904.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 110895.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 44702.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 67821.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 138086.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 95293.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 76831.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 51768.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 27893.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 63228.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "topeka-ks-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "topeka-ks-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "topeka-ks-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T14:37:09.197748+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/topeka-ks-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/topeka-ks-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}