{"schema_version": 1, "id": "toledo-oh-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 461, "label": "Toledo, OH MSA", "slug": "toledo-oh-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T08:09:18.221780+00:00", "headline": "Toledo payrolls slip as trades and nursing pay keep climbing.", "headline_summary": "Metro nonfarm employment fell to 305,900 in December 2025 and unemployment sits at 4.6% \u2014 well above Ohio's 3.4% \u2014 even as electrician and registered nurse advertised pay post significant local gains.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Toledo MSA unemployment rate", "value": "4.6%", "context": "vs 3.4% statewide Ohio rate"}, {"label": "Toledo nonfarm payrolls", "value": "305,900", "context": "down from 307,100 in Oct. 2025"}, {"label": "Ohio labor force participation", "value": "61.2%", "context": "vs 61.8% national rate"}, {"label": "Registered Nurse advertised pay", "value": "$92,865 metro median", "context": "up significantly, tracks healthcare capacity demand"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Toledo's job count is shrinking while Ohio's holds steadier.", "body": "Metro nonfarm payrolls fell from 307,100 to 305,900 between October and December 2025, a decline that outpaces the state's more modest softening and leaves Toledo's 4.6% unemployment rate well above Ohio's 3.4%. This gap is consistent with a local economy more exposed to manufacturing and institutional retrenchment than the state average."}, {"headline": "Layoff notices are spreading beyond the factory floor.", "body": "Fall WARN filings touched a newspaper (The Blade), a university (Lourdes), and a chemicals plant (Perstorp Polyols), spreading across multiple sectors. That breadth suggests cost pressure is reaching service and institutional employers as well as goods-producing ones, and argues for watching labor-market stress across the full civic and commerce base."}, {"headline": "Skilled trades and nursing pay are the clearest signs of local strength.", "body": "Electrician, HVAC technician, and registered nurse advertised pay all posted significant local gains even as overall metro employment softened. That divergence is consistent with continued demand for infrastructure and healthcare capacity and offers a concrete, defensible data point for commerce leaders making the case that parts of the local economy remain in expansion."}, {"headline": "Office and logistics-adjacent pay is cooling alongside employment.", "body": "Warehouse manager, data engineer, and business analyst advertised pay all moved down this month, tracking the metro's broader payroll decline. This pattern is consistent with softer demand concentrated in back-office and goods-movement functions, with trades and healthcare holding steady by comparison."}], "local_conditions": "Toledo's nonfarm employment has drifted lower, from 307,100 in October 2025 to 305,900 in December 2025, while the metro's unemployment rate of 4.6% remains well above Ohio's statewide 3.4% reading, pointing to a local labor market cooling faster than the state as a whole. Layoff activity has broadened beyond manufacturing this fall, with WARN filings touching media (The Blade, 116 jobs), higher education (Lourdes University, 387 jobs earlier in 2026), and specialty chemicals (Perstorp Polyols, 50 jobs), suggesting the slowdown is reaching service and institutional employers alongside industrial ones.", "implications": "Advertised pay gains in electricians (+significant), HVAC technicians (+significant), and registered nurses (+significant) point to continued capital investment in skilled trades and healthcare capacity even as broader metro employment contracts, a divergence commerce leaders should read as sector-selective strength and not a broad-based expansion. Flat-to-declining advertised pay in warehouse management, data engineering, and business analyst roles alongside Toledo's employment dip is consistent with a metro absorbing slower goods-movement and back-office demand while trades and care occupations hold firm. Current conditions suggest local economic development and chamber planning should track sector-level divergence closely and avoid relying on the metro's headline unemployment rate alone.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Toledo's unemployment rate (4.6%) has run persistently above Ohio's (3.4%); watch whether the January BLS update narrows or widens that gap as a read on whether the metro's weakness is deepening relative to the state."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "WARN filings touching media, higher education, and chemicals this fall suggest layoff exposure is broadening. Track whether additional notices surface in healthcare or retail, sectors that showed scattered activity statewide in 2026."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Statewide labor force participation (61.2%) trails the national rate (61.8%) and has been declining since mid-2025. A continued pull-back in metro-level participation would complicate any read of Toledo's unemployment rate as a clean measure of labor-market slack."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Advertised pay gains in electricians, HVAC technicians, and registered nurses have held through a period of falling metro employment. Watch whether that divergence persists into early 2026 or narrows as overall hiring demand softens further."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24027.0, "metro_p50": 29120.0, "metro_p75": 32170.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24862.0, "metro_p50": 28600.0, "metro_p75": 30760.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30832.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59000.0, "metro_p50": 79668.0, "metro_p75": 92300.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28339.0, "metro_p50": 34122.2, "metro_p75": 42241.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34320.0, "metro_p50": 38480.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58404.0, "metro_p50": 74930.0, "metro_p75": 75202.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29519.0, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 39187.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27611.0, "metro_p50": 32240.0, "metro_p75": 33368.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33359.0, "metro_p50": 38480.0, "metro_p75": 42640.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32572.0, "metro_p50": 39664.0, "metro_p75": 41613.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55942.0, "metro_p50": 67600.0, "metro_p75": 89440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 80010.25, "metro_p50": 92865.2, "metro_p75": 99840.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 90381.0, "metro_p50": 127847.0, "metro_p75": 143529.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 96500.0, "metro_p50": 129844.0, "metro_p75": 138239.25, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56009.0, "metro_p50": 70000.0, "metro_p75": 78965.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 67170.0, "metro_p50": 83814.0, "metro_p75": 84986.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 52895.0, "metro_p50": 67141.0, "metro_p75": 72604.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 39083.0, "metro_p50": 51800.0, "metro_p75": 54652.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 71747.0, "metro_p50": 82820.8, "metro_p75": 93502.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30416.25, "metro_p50": 43502.6, "metro_p75": 46831.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55000.0, "metro_p50": 80000.0, "metro_p75": 105377.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 51862.0, "metro_p50": 65000.0, "metro_p75": 67500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 66808.25, "metro_p50": 80483.0, "metro_p75": 96520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 75560.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 64041.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 33798.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 57881.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 90000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 52318.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "stable", "postings_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 55271.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 52175.5, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 31361.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 66161.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "toledo-oh-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "toledo-oh-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "toledo-oh-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:31:23.923244+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/toledo-oh-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/toledo-oh-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}